FOREX TRADING

EUR/USD closed lower on Thursday as it extends this week’s breakout below the 20-day moving average crossing. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If it extends this week’s decline, the reaction low crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing would temper the bearish outlook.

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The EURUSD was indecisive yesterday. I found something interesting about the CCI behavior on h4 chart below. Here is the situation: Price still move in bullish channel, indicating we are in bullish phase, but corrected lower from 1.3332 to 1.2782. Now look at my CCI. The A part show that the bullish gained its momentum back after being in oversold area and cross the -100 line up. The B part show that CCI cross the -100 line up, but the bearish pressure didn’t stop and price keep under bearish pressure. Now we are in the C part, where CCI also in oversold area and cross the -100 line up. Learning from past experience, from here the bullish and bearish scenario probability is 50-50. Although we are seeing some upside pressure now, my bullish mode will be reactivated at least when price able to move consistently above 50% Fibo retracement of 1.3332 – 1.2782 which is located around 1.3057. Now, let’s look at the intra-day. Immediate resistance around 1.2880 – 1.2900 area. Consistent move above that area could trigger further upside pressure testing 1.2980 – 1.3000. Initial support at 1.2782. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.2700/35 and the lower line of the bullish channel and could be a serious threat to the bullish outlook.

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EUR/USD closed sharply lower on Wednesday and below the 20-day moving average crossing confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If it extends this week’s decline, the reaction low crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing would temper the bearish outlook.

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The EURUSD had a huge bearish movement yesterday, bottomed at 1.2859 and closed at 1.2862. On daily chart below we can see that after failed to move above 1.3340 resistance area, the Euro has been under heavy pressure and now price seems ready to test the lower line of the bullish channel, which is located around 1.2700 area, especially if price able to move consistently below 1.2800. Break below 1.2700 and violation to the bullish channel could be seen as bullish failure and potential bearish reversal scenario at least testing 1.2470. Immediate resistance at 1.2920 followed by 1.2980 – 1.3000 area. Break above that area should keep the bullish scenario intact.

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EUR/USD closed lower on Tuesday as it as it consolidates some of last week’s rally but remains above the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If it extends the rally off June’s low, the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing is the next upside target.

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The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.3074, closed higher at 1.3175 and now traded lower again 1.3105 at the time I wrote this comment. Overall we are still in bullish phase but if there are times when price will make potential significant downside correction, now is one of those times. Like I said, we are now in a tricky phase. The bias is neutral in nearest term but further downside pullback still potential from here testing 1.3045/00 region especially if price able to move consistently below 1.3105. Bullish may re-gain its momentum again only if able to stay consistently above 1.3250.

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The EURUSD failed to continue its bullish scenario yesterday after unable to re-test 1.3340 resistance level, bottomed at 1.3215 and keep moving lower around 1.3190 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.3105 area but note that we are still in bullish phase. Immediate resistance at 1.3250. Another move above that area could trigger further upside pressure testing 1.3340. We are entering the tricky phase here as we have conflicting bias between short term (bearish) and medium term (bullish). Fundamental focus will be on the FOMC statement.

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EUR/USD closed lower due to profit taking on Monday as it as it consolidates some of last week’s rally but remains above the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be near. If it extends the rally off June’s low, the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing is the next upside target.

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The EURUSD continued its bullish momentum on Friday after worse than expected US NFP number. On h4 chart below we have an ascending triangle that has been violated to the upside indicating potential further bullish pressure testing 1.3400/20 especially if price able to move consistently above 1.3340. On the other hand, a movement back inside the ascending triangle and below 1.3250 support area could lead us into neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.3150/60 but the major scenario remains to the upside with 1.3585 – 1.3650 as weekly target.

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EUR/USD closed higher on Friday as it extends last week’s breakout above the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be near. If it extends the rally off June’s low, the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

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NFP Puts USD Recovery on Hold

This week, The USD had some early signs of recovery. It was mainly stabilizing after being pressured the previous weak. There were some strong USD gains on Wednesday, but this did not follow through on Thursday, and by Friday’s NFP, the market turned back USD-weakness. The Japanese yen continues to gain in this risk averse environment, after being pressured earlier in the week.

EUR/USD Surges After NFP

Daily: The EUR/USD broke above this week’s consolidation range today, driven by the worse-than-expected NFP.

The EUR/USD is at an area of significant resistance. The 1.3250 to 1.3300 area is resistance, but if broken, should again see resistance at 1.35 or the 200SMA.

The RSI in the 1H chart shows bullish continuation momentum.

The RSI in the daily shows overbought RSI readings, but also a signal of intermediate bullish momentum.

I am very uncertain of the EUR/USD at the moment. Today’s moves proved that signs of greenback recovery earlier this week, were head fakes.

The question remains for me: how much weaker can the USD get in the short-intermediate term. Before considering the dollar recovery, I maintain that we should look for the USD to gain across the board, especially against the JPY, and CHF, which has not happened yet. (more…)

The EURUSD was volatile but indecisive yesterday. The bias remains neutral in nearest term but still within a strong technical bullish context. Immediate support remains around 1.3105 area. Break below that area could trigger further downside pressure testing 1.3045/00 region. On the upside we need a consistent move above 1.3200 to continue the bullish scenario testing 1.3260 before targeting 1.3340. We will have US NFP data today. The number is expected to be a good one, forecast around -63K which is about 62K better than the previous (-125K). If the actual number is better than forecast, the pair could continue its bearish correction. On the other hand, if the actual number is worse than expected, price may resume its bullish scenario. But whatever the result, usually market will be very volatile during this data release.

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EUR/USD closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates above the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signalling that additional short-term gains are possible. If it extends the rally off June’s low, the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

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The EURUSD was corrected lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.3131 and closed at 1.3160. Technically this is just a normal correction for me and we may see further downside pullback, but the major scenario remains strongly bullish. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate support at 1.3105. Break below that area could trigger further downside pullback testing 1.3045/00 region. Initial resistance at the minor trendline resistance (white) and around 1.3200 area. Break above that area could trigger further bullish pressure testing 1.3260 before targeting 1.3340. My fundamental focus remains on the US NFP tomorrow and like I said yesterday, price behavior could be a little bit more unpredictable so I won’t rush jump into the market.

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EUR/USD closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off June’s low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signalling that additional short-term gains are possible. If it extends the rally off June’s low, the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

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