FOREX TRADING

The EURUSD was corrected lower yesterday after bad Euro zone Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI numbers. The bias is neutral in nearest term. We haven’t seen significant bearish correction during the strong bullish momentum, so any bearish correction is normal and I don’t see potential technical bearish reversal scenario so far. On h4 chart below we can see price is moving in a minor bearish channel, (which is also can be seen as a bullish flag formation) indicating bearish consolidation but overall we are still in bullish phase but need a break out above the bearish channel to continue the bullish scenario testing 1.3500. Immediate support at 1.3250, which is the 23.6% Fibo retracement of 1.2644 – 1.3438. Fundamental focus today will be on German Ifo Business Climate and US Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales. Trading in the weekend with some high impact data and technical consolidation could be very tricky so don’t rush jump into the market.

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EUR/USD posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday as it consolidates some of this month’s rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signalling that additional gains are possible near-term. If it extends the rally off August’s low, April’s high crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

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The EURUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.3438 and closed at 1.3393 following a strong break out above the trend line resistance on Tuesday. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 1.3500 area before testing 1.3700. Immediate support at 1.3333 (former resistance). Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.3267 but overall we are still in strong bullish phase. Fundamental focus today will be on some Euro zone Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI data and US Unemployment Claims and Existing Home Sales. Risk aversion/appetite sentiment likely to keep driving the market so good numbers could trigger further bullish momentum while bad numbers could trigger some technical downside rebound.

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EUR/USD closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this month’s rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signalling that additional gains are possible near-term. If it extends the rally off August’s low, April’s high crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

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Current level – 0.8477

Longer term trading in a wide range between 0.8070 and 0.8500, the bias remains bearish and in consolidation zone.

Intraday: gains extended above 0.8500, reaching 0.8512 high. We are waiting for a retracement to support area in 0.8400/20 to reinstate long positions targeting 0.8530s

Profit-taking affects gold curbing silver and platinum

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Current level – 1.3288

EUR/USD is in a downtrend, after peaking at 1.5146 (Nov.25,2009). Technical indicators are descending, and trading is situated below the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.3458 and 1.4206.

With the break above 1.3159 the uptrend was renewed, reaching high few pips below the previous top at 1.3335. Our intraday outlook is negative, for a corrective slide towards 1.3150 support.

Profit-taking affects gold curbing silver and platinum

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The EURUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday after market react positively on FMOC statement.  Although most part of the statement didn’t show significant change from the previous releases, the Fed willingness to “provide additional accommodation if needed to support the economic recovery” triggered risk appetite and push Euro higher. This positive reaction on global recovery could remain stay in the market at least in nearest future and give further support to the Euro. On daily chart below we can see price made a strong breakout above the trend line resistance indicating potential bullish continuation testing 1.3500 region especially if price able to make another break above 1.3333 (August 06 high). Immediate support at 1.3250/00 area. As long as price stay above that area, technical bias remains strongly bullish.

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EUR/USD closed lower on Monday and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If it extends the rally off August’s low, August’s high crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes below August’s low crossing would renew the decline off last month’s high.

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The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.3120 but closed lower at 1.3062 in a volatile but indecisive market. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as price move above the minor trend line support (white) we are still in strong bullish phase testing 1.3200 and the trend line resistance area. Immediate support at 1.3028 (yesterday’s low). Break below that area could trigger further bearish pullback towards 1.2930 region. On the upside we still need a clear break above 1.3120 to continue the bullish pressure. Fundamental focus will be on FOMC statement. An optimistic tone by The Fed could trigger risk appetite and push Euro higher while a pessimistic tone could trigger risk aversion sentiment and push Euro lower. Price likely to stay volatile ahead and during FOMC meeting.

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EUR/USD closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of last week’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If it extends the rally off August’s low, August’s high crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes below August’s low crossing would renew the decline off last month’s high.

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The EURUSD bullish momentum was paused on Friday after bad US CPI and consumer sentiment numbers triggered risk aversion. Overall we are still in bullish phase but need another break above 1.3120 to continue the upside pressure re-testing 1.3200 and the trend line resistance area. On the downside, immediate support at minor trend line support (white) and 1.3000. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pullback testing 1.2920.

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Currency pair USD/CHF

Presumably, the price has started wave formation v of (iii). If the assumption is true, it is necessary to expect continuation of a descending trend as an impulse or a Diagonal Triangle.

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The EURUSD didn’t make significant movement yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but we are still in bullish correction phase as price is moving strongly inside the bullish channel as you can see on my h1 chart below. A break above the trend line resistance could trigger further upside momentum testing 1.2930. On the downside only a violation to the bullish channel and movement below 1.2770 support area could trigger bearish continuation at least testing 1.2700. Pay attention to US Non Farm Payroll data today.

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EUR/USD closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off this month’s high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signalling that a short-term low is in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing would temper the bearish outlook. If it renews last month’s decline, the reaction low crossing is the next downside target.

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The EURUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.2854 and closed at 1.2807 after price break above the triangle. Positive data from China and Australia trigger risk appetite and hurt the Dollar. The “head and shoulders” bearish scenario remains intact but clearly under heavy pressure as price is now move above the neckline (1.2700). A new trend line resistance (yellow) is drawn as a result of yesterday’s price action. Break above that trend line and 1.2854 could trigger further upside pressure testing the right shoulder of the H&S formation around 1.2930 which could be a serious threat to the bearish outlook and potential bullish reversal scenario. On the downside, I think we need another move below 1.2700 to see further bearish pressure.

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