FOREX TRADING

USD-CHF 1.0230/33…Resistance at 1.0245-60 wait and watch

R: 1.0245-60 / 1.0291-300
S: 1.0141 / 1.0050 / 1.0012-00

Dollar-Swiss has broken above the Resistance at 1.0150 today and is currently trading above 1.0200. The pair tested the Resistance region of 1.0245-60 and is currently trading lower. In the US sessions today, we may see the pair move in a range of 1.0175-250, however there are less chances of a break above the Resistance region of 1.0260 today. The suggested Max high for the day is 1.0244. (more…)

EUR/USD closed lower on Thursday and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing would temper the bearish outlook. If it extends last week’s decline, the reaction low crossing is the next downside target.

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EUR/GBP

Current level – 0.8234

Regarding longer term the price it is building a classic triangle and it is not easy to forecast the next step of the price. If the price enters in the control area below 0.8220 it is almost sure that the price it is gonna test previous minimums and looking forward for the full target at 0.8067

Intraday: It is not a bad idea to set stop orders below and above the triangle with a small filters to avoid  market tricks.

Profit-taking affects gold curbing silver and platinum

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EUR/USD

Current level – 1.2808

EUR/USD is in a downtrend, after peaking at 1.5146 (Nov.25,2009). Technical indicators are descending, and trading is situated below the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.3458 and 1.4206.

We believe, that the consolidation above 1.2731 has been completed with the yesterday’s peak at 1.2923 and the pair is ready for a break below 1.2731, towards 1.2475 support area. Initial intraday resistance comes at 1.2843 and only a rebound above that level will signal, that the consolidation is still on the run.

Profit-taking affects gold curbing silver and platinum

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EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD continued its moderate recovery yesterday. On h1 chart below we can see that price is moving in a new minor bullish channel but there are some downside pressure earlier today in Asian session as price is now testing the lower line of the bullish channel. Violation to the minor bullish channel could pause the recovery testing 1.2800 even 1.2735/00 and the lower line of the major bullish channel. Immediate resistance at 1.2916/30 area. Break above that area could trigger further recovery testing 1.3000. It’s been a difficult market for the last two weeks as I have conflicting trend in multi time frames and risk aversion-appetite seems to control the market sentiment again adding uncertainty and volatility.

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Currency pair USD/CHF

Presumably, within the limits of an impulse () of [b] finishes formation a correctional wave iv of (c). If the assumption is true, after its termination, it is possible to expect short-term falling of pair as an impulse or a Diagonal Triangle v of (c).

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EUR/USD closed lower on Friday as it extends last week’s decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If it extends last week’s decline, the reaction low crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing would temper the bearish outlook.

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The EURUSD had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.2710 and closed at 1.2696. This fact should keep the upside correction scenario intact at least testing 1.2750 and  1.2850 – 1.2900 area. However, as you can see on my h1 chart below, we have a rising wedge formation indicating potential bearish pullback especially if price break below the rising wedge. Although we are still in upside correction phase, this formation could be a trap, so I think I will stand aside for now. Immediate support at 1.2605 area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.2465.

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD was indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term. On h1 chart below we can see that price still moving inside a minor bullish channel (white channel) indicating upside pressure in nearest term is still potential. Break below the minor bullish channel could trigger further bearish pressure towards 1.2240 support area before testing the major bullish channel (blue channel). On the upside, 1.2450 remains the nearest upside target especially if price able to move consistently above 1.2350 area.

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EUR/USD closed lower on Wednesday and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If it extends the rally off last week’s low, the reaction high crossing is the next upside target. If it resumes this year’s decline, monthly support crossing is the next downside target.

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EUR/GBP

Current level – 0.8332

Longer term bias switched to bearish now that the cross has breached key support in 0.8400 area.

Intraday:  bounces off 0.8250/60 level. Look for a consolidation phase between 0.8410 and 0.8200. Key intraday resistance in 0.8350 .

Profit-taking affects gold curbing silver and platinum

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This week was an important one to assess how the market is reacting to last week’s shaker. The fundamental front is dominated by EU woes but the market is also starting to realize greater structural implications globally. The discussion now is whether this current crisis will derail the recovery in Europe and the US.

Intermarket Analysis

The US is plagued by realization of structural faults too as the market now all knows that the major US banks did not have one losing day trading in the Q1 2010. This eerily reminds me of Madoff’s equity curve, which was incredibly and improbably consistent. That type of consistency should call for attention, yet the banks slipped under the radar until Goldman Sachs was brought under criminal investigation.

The worrying sign here is that there appears to be no real improvement. The structure of our finance system has clearly remained unchanged, and possibly even encouraged by bailouts. The market’s confidence in the Euro and Pound has been dropping, which has made the Greenback pretty. However, I suspect that we are going to continue a commodities rotation, evident by the persistent surge in oil and gold. If structural changes are to come, the market may even accelerate this rotation process.

EUR/USD

4H: Looking at a short-term time-frame, we see that the Euro continues to be pressured. The market formed a negative RSI reversal this week suggesting a swing projection to 1.23, 1.2350. The RSI is in the oversold territory but reflects healthy bearish momentum.

Monthly: The monthly is just a reminder of the bearish scenario. With a break below 1.2350, 1.23, we may see a drop to 1.15, 1.14.

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EUR/USD

Current level – 1.3556

EUR/USD is in a downtrend, after peaking at 1.5146 (Nov.25,2009). Technical indicators are neutral, and trading is situated below the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.4793 and 1.4169

Yesterday’s slide bottomed at 1.3513 and we continue to be bearish here for 1.3442 with an initial resistance at 1.3582-96 area. Only a clear break above that zone will confirm, that the slide from 1.3690 is corrective in nature and will target 1.3820 major resistance.

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The EURUSD is currently trading at 1.3543 levels. It has moved 200-300 pips as expected . We do not see immediate bearishness below 1.3260 levels. We have recommended to sell at least 50% rom 1.3650 – 1.3700 levels for exporters for April and May . Importers have already taken significant covers near 1.33 levels earlier (refer last week update). Please note that the Monthly charts are signalling that Euro is highly oversold and may strengthen further till 1.38-1.40 levels in the coming 1-2 months incase 1.3650 breaks on a consistent basis. Buying on dips remains the strategy till 1.33 holds support. (EURUSD – 1.3543). – Neutral to Slight Bullish.

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CHF

The pre-planned sales from key resistance range levels have been implemented, but with loss of several points in attainment of minimal anticipated target. OsMA trend indicator, having marked fall in activity of both parties in the bigger picture as a sign of uncertainty regarding choice of planning priorities for today, suggests preservation of earlier designed trading plans practically unchanged. Namely, we can assume probability of rate return to channel line 1 at 1,0540/60 levels, where it is recommended to evaluate the development of the activity of both parties in accordance with the charts of a shorter time interval. As for sales, on condition of the formation of topping signals the targets will be 1,0480/1,0500, 1,0420/40 and (or) further break-out variant up to 1,0360/80, 1,0300/20, 1,0240/60. The alternative for buyers will be above 1,0680 with the targets of 1,0720/40, 1,0780/1,0800.

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