FOREX TRADING

The EURUSD had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.3260 and closed a little bit lower at 1.3229. On daily chart below we have another bullish technical evidence where price break above the trendline resistance. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall we are still in strong bullish phase. We are going to have the NFP on Friday and usually market could become a little bit more unpredictable especially in nearest term. Immediate support at 1.3200 followed by 1.3150. On the upside, a break above 1.3260 could trigger further upside pressure testing 1.3340.

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EUR/USD closed higher on Monday and above the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signalling that additional short-term gains are possible. If it extends the rally off June’s low, the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

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The EURUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, break above the rising wedge formation as you can see on my daily chart below. This fact confirms the bullish continuation scenario which is started after price break above the falling wedge on June 14 targeting 1.3340. Immediate support at 1.3115 area. Break below that area could lead us into neutral zone in nearest term but overall we are still in strong bullish phase

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EUR/USD closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidates below the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signalling that additional short-term gains are possible. If it extends the rally off June’s low, the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

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EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD finally made a clear break above 1.3000 resistance yesterday, topped at 1.3106 but closed a little bit lower at 1.03075. This fact could trigger further upside pressure testing 1.3213/70 region before testing 1.3340. However, as you can see on my daily chart below, we have a trendline resistance which is located around 1.3120 that need to be broken to the upside before continue the bullish pressure. Immediate support at 1.3045/20 region. Break below that area could lead us into neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.2950/30 support area but overall we are still in strong upside phase and I still prefer buy on dips.

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EUR/USD closed higher on Thursday and is challenging the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are bullish signalling that additional short-term gains are possible. If it extends the rally off June’s low, the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

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EUR/USD closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday but remains above the 10-day moving average crossing. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are bullish signalling that additional short-term gains are possible. If it extends the rally off June’s low, the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

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The EURUSD made another indecisive movement yesterday, formed another Doji on daily chart. Price still unable to consistently move above 1.3000 and we know that it is a very strong resistance, which could produce bullish exhaustion and downside consolidation unless price able to break above 1.3045 area, targeting 1.3120 before testing 1.3270 – 1.3340 region. The bias remains neutral in nearest term but overall we are still in bullish phase. Immediate support at 1.2900 – 1.2880 area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum testing 1.2735 key support area.

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EUR/USD closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates above the 10-day moving average crossing. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning bullish signalling that additional short-term gains are possible. If it extends the rally off June’s low, the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

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The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.3045 but again, failed to consistently move above 1.3000 so far. The bias is neutral in nearest term but I believe we are still in strong upside phase unless price break below 1.2735 region. Immediate support at 1.2950 followed by 1.2880. On the upside, 1.3120 remains the nearest bullish target.

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The EURUSD touched 1.3000 area yesterday but still unable to move consistently above that psychological/key level so far. On h4 chart below we can see that we may have a triple top formation around 1.3000. Consistent move above 1.3000 could trigger further bullish pressure testing 1.3120 even higher. On the other hand, break below 1.2735 confirms the triple top scenario and could be a serious threat to the current bullish outlook. Immediate support at 1.2950 (23.6% Fibo retracement of 1.2793 – 1.3005). Break below that area could trigger further bearish pullback testing 1.2875 (61.5% Fibo retracement of 1.2793 – 1.3005).

GBPUSD Outlook

The GBPUSD slipped above 1.5470 resistance area indicating potential further upside pressure at least targeting 1.5573 (February 23 high) before testing 1.5685 region (February 18 high). Another move below 1.5470 could lead us into neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.5400 but overall we are still in strong bullish phase and I prefer buy the dips strategy at this phase.

USDJPY Outlook

The USDJPY failed to continue its bullish correction yesterday and now back below 87.00. My short term technical study is a a little bit mess for this pair but overall the major scenario remains to the downside with nearest bearish target around 86.25 – 85.86 before re-testing 84.80 area. Immediate resistance at 87.50 followed by 88.23.

USDCHF Outlook

As you can see on my h4 below, the USDCHF is moving inside a rectangle area indicating consolidation after significant bearish momentum. We need a break from the range area to see clearer direction. Break above 1.0560 could trigger further bullish pullback testing 1.0650/70 while a break below 1.0399 could continue the major bearish scenario targeting 1.0320 and 1.0220 region.

EURJPY Outlook

The EURJPY was indecisive yesterday. Price so far unable to stay consistently above 113.50 area indicating limited upside pressure. Overall price still trapped in range area of 113.50 – 108.07. We need a consistent move above 113.50 to continue the bullish correction testing 115.50. Immediate support at 112.25 followed by 111.50/60 region

GBPJPY Outlook

The GBPJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 135.60 but closed lower at 134.64. Overall we are still in range area of 136.30 – 130.50 and I will keep stay away from this pair for now. On h1 chart below we have a descending triangle formation indicating potential downside pressure especially if price break below the triangle testing 133.70/20 support area. On the upside, we need a clear break above 136.30 resistance area to confirm the bullish scenario testing 139.38 region.

AUDUSD Outlook

The AUDUSD had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday. The main scenario remains bullish but the rising wedge bearish scenario warning is still there and we need price to violate the formation with strong momentum to continue the bullish scenario targeting 0.9140 before testing 0.9380 in longer term. On the downside, only a break below 0.8858 and the rising wedge formation could be considered as potential bullish failure.

EUR/USD closed higher on Monday as it consolidates above the 10-day moving average crossing. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. However, stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If it renews the rally off June’s low, the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing s the next upside target.

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EUR/USD closed higher on Friday as it consolidates above the 10-day moving average crossing. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. However, stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If it renews the rally off June’s low, the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing s the next upside target.

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EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD was indecisive on Friday. Price attempted to push lower, bottomed at 1.2794 but closed higher at 1.2914. On h4 chart below we can see that price is moving inside a triangle formation after failed to consistently move above 1.3000 and found support around 1.2735 indicating consolidation. Breakout above the triangle could trigger further upside pressure re-testing 1.3000 before targeting 1.3120. On the other hand, breakdown below the triangle could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.2735 region. Overall we are still in bullish phase.

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This week, the greenback is seen fighting back, although its gains have been slight. It has been most apparent with the EUR/USD. Against the USD/JPY, it is simply holding the Japanese yen from further gains. It also gained insignificantly against the Sterling. Against the AUD and CAD however, the USD actually continued to lose. These mixed results suggest that even though the USD is fighting back, it may still be weak, with the Euro even weaker. Let’s take a look at this week’s action, and see what we can anticipate.

EUR/USD Eyes 1.27, 1.25, 1.2150 (Link)

4H: The EUR/USD has established a top at 1.30 this week after breaking below the double top pattern. Thursday, we saw the EUR/USD surge but this was still a pullback. The targets established in an earlier update are still valid. We know the first near-term target is 1.27, and the market action has set up for a swing towards this level. You can see this projection on the chart above.

I forgot to put the 60 and 40 in the RSI, but you can see the RSI held below 60, a good sign for the bearish outlook.

Daily: The EUR/USD in the daily time-frame has finished 2 bullish swings, and was rejected that 1.30, 61.8% retracement level. I have mentioned the first target is at 1.25. If the market supports the pair here, we may have 5th wave swing towards and possibly above the 1.30 level. However, if 1.25 breaks, this count is invalid. (more…)