FOREX TRADING

EUR/USD closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off this month’s high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signalling that a short-term low is in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing would temper the bearish outlook. If September renews last month’s decline, the reaction low crossing is the next downside target.

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EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD was indecisive on Friday. We are still in bullish correction phase but my major bearish outlook remains intact especially if price break below the rising wedge formation and 1.2680 support area testing 1.2523 – 1.2470 area. On the other hand, if the upside correction continues and price break above the rising wedge, we could see further upside correction testing 1.2825 – 1.2930 region which could be a serious threat to the current bearish outlook.

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EUR/USD closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off this month’s high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signalling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If it extends this month’s decline, the reaction low crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing would temper the bearish outlook.

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EUR/USD closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off this month’s high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signalling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If it extends this month’s decline, the reaction low crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing would temper the bearish outlook.

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The EURUSD continue to make upside pressure yesterday, topped at 1.2763 but still unable to move consistently above 1.2730, traded lower around 1.2700 at the time I wrote this comment. We are still in upside correction phase as long as price move inside the minor bullish channel but the major scenario remains bearish. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Another upside movement above 1.2730 could trigger another upside pressure testing 1.2770 – 1.2825. On the downside, a movement below 1.2650 and violation to the downside of the minor bullish channel could potentially end the upside correction testing 1.2587 – 1.2523 and keep the bearish scenario remains strong.

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The EURUSD made another upside attempt yesterday, topped at 1.2726 but further upside pressure was still limited and traded lower around 1.2670 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is neutral in nearest term and still within a bearish context but price is bouncing to the upside from 1.2587, moving in a minor bullish channel. We need a violation to the downside of the minor bullish channel to continue the bearish scenario. Break above 1.2730 could trigger further upside pressure testing 1.2770 – 1.2825 region before testing 1.2930 which could be a serious threat to the bearish scenario. Immediate support at 1.2620. Break below that area could trigger further downside pressure re-testing 1.2587 – 1.2523 and keep the bearish scenario intact.

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EUR/USD closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off this month’s high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signalling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If it extends this month’s decline, the reaction low crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing would temper the bearish outlook.

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The EURUSD has been moving in volatile but indecisive market for the last 48 hours. After the confirmation of “head and shoulders” bearish reversal scenario, now price is moving in a new bearish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below. This bearish outlook can only be cancelled by a movement above the right shoulder of the H&S formation which is around 1.2930 and violation to the bearish channel. Immediate resistance at 1.2730 followed by 1.2770. We will have some high impact data from the Euro zone and US today. The Euro usually move higher after data release lately but the bullish moves were short lived. Tricky market, but I am still on the bearish side.

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EUR/USD closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off this month’s high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signalling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If it extends this month’s decline, the reaction low crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing would temper the bearish outlook.

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The EURUSD continued its bearish pressure yesterday and seems convincingly move below 1.2700 area. This fact could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.2523 – 1.2470 region as the ‘head and shoulders’ bearish reversal scenario is now confirmed. Another upside pullback above 1.2700 will lead us to neutral zone as direction is unclear but I think overall the pressure is more to the downside and I prefer short on rallies at this phase.

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EUR/USD closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off this month’s high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are bearish signalling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If it extends this month’s decline, the reaction low crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing would temper the bearish outlook.

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EUR/USD closed lower on Friday and has renewed the decline off this month’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but are turning bearish signalling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If it extends this month’s decline, the reaction low crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossin would temper the bearish outlook.

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The EURUSD continued its bearish pressure on Friday, slipped below the major bullish channel and 1.2700 key support area, bottomed at 1.2664 but rebounded to the upside and traded above 1.2700 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bearish in nearest term but we need a consistent move below 1.2700 to continue the bearish pressure testing 1.2610 before testing 1.2500 – 1.2470. Fundamental focus will be on some Euro zone flash manufacturing and services PMI numbers today. If we have good numbers, potential resistance to be tested is at 1.2780 and 1.2930 area.

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The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.2772 but dragged higher after Sterling strengthen against Dollar on better than expected UK retail sales number, topped at 1.2902 and closed lower at 1.2821, still in volatile but indecisive market. On h1 chart below we can see price is moving inside a triangle indicating consolidation so far. The major bullish scenario remains intact as long as price move inside the major bullish channel. Break to the upside of the triangle and 1.2930 resistance area could trigger further recovery testing 1.3000. Immediate support at 1.2700/35 area. Break below that area could be a serious threat the the bullish outlook.

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EUR/USD closed lower on Thursday as it extends this week’s breakout below the 20-day moving average crossing. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If it extends this week’s decline, the reaction low crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing would temper the bearish outlook.

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