FOREX TRADING

EUR/USD closed higher on Friday as it consolidates above the 10-day moving average crossing. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. However, stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If it renews the rally off June’s low, the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing s the next upside target.

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EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD was indecisive on Friday. Price attempted to push lower, bottomed at 1.2794 but closed higher at 1.2914. On h4 chart below we can see that price is moving inside a triangle formation after failed to consistently move above 1.3000 and found support around 1.2735 indicating consolidation. Breakout above the triangle could trigger further upside pressure re-testing 1.3000 before targeting 1.3120. On the other hand, breakdown below the triangle could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.2735 region. Overall we are still in bullish phase.

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This week, the greenback is seen fighting back, although its gains have been slight. It has been most apparent with the EUR/USD. Against the USD/JPY, it is simply holding the Japanese yen from further gains. It also gained insignificantly against the Sterling. Against the AUD and CAD however, the USD actually continued to lose. These mixed results suggest that even though the USD is fighting back, it may still be weak, with the Euro even weaker. Let’s take a look at this week’s action, and see what we can anticipate.

EUR/USD Eyes 1.27, 1.25, 1.2150 (Link)

4H: The EUR/USD has established a top at 1.30 this week after breaking below the double top pattern. Thursday, we saw the EUR/USD surge but this was still a pullback. The targets established in an earlier update are still valid. We know the first near-term target is 1.27, and the market action has set up for a swing towards this level. You can see this projection on the chart above.

I forgot to put the 60 and 40 in the RSI, but you can see the RSI held below 60, a good sign for the bearish outlook.

Daily: The EUR/USD in the daily time-frame has finished 2 bullish swings, and was rejected that 1.30, 61.8% retracement level. I have mentioned the first target is at 1.25. If the market supports the pair here, we may have 5th wave swing towards and possibly above the 1.30 level. However, if 1.25 breaks, this count is invalid. (more…)

EUR/USD closed higher on positive data for Europe’s manufacturing and service sectors on Thursday and above the 10-day moving average crossing. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. However, stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If it renews the rally off June’s low, the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing is the next upside target.

USD/JPY closed slightly higher on Thursday and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing would confirm that a short-term high has been posted. If it extends the decline off May’s high, last November’s low crossing is the next downside target. (more…)

The EURUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday after failed to move below 1.2735 support area, topped at 1.2929 and closed at 1.2891. The bias is bullish in nearest term re-testing 1.3000 area especially if price break above the flag formation as you can see on my h1 chart below. Immediate support at 1.2840/50 area. Break below that area could lead us into neutral zone in nearest term re-testing 1.2735 but overall we are still in upside correction phase now.

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EUR/USD

closed lower on Wednesday and below the 10-day moving average crossing signalling that a short-term top has likely been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted and would then open the door for additional weakness near-term.

EUR/USDclosed lower on Wednesday and below the 10-day moving average crossing signalling that a short-term top has likely been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted and would then open the door for additional weakness near-term.

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The EURUSD had a significant bearish momentum, slipped below the minor trendline support (red) as you can see on my h4 chart below indicating potential bearish view in nearest term testing 1.2670 – 1.2600 region. However note that overall we are still in upside correction phase and only a movement below the major bullish channel and 1.2465 support area could be considered as potential bullish failure. I will keep stand aside for now. Immediate resistance at 1.2800. Consistent move above that area could trigger further upside pressure testing 1.2880 – 1.2900 area.

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EUR/USD closed lower due to profit taking on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off June’s low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If it extends the aforementioned rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing is the next upside target.

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