FOREX TRADING

Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD was recovered significantly yesterday, topped at 1.2393 and closed at 1.2359. I have been watching interesting reaction between Fibo retracement levels and the close price of h4 candle. As you can see on my h4 below, the last h4 candle still closed below the 38.2% Fibo retracement indicating good resistance around that level so far which keep the bearish scenario intact. However we had strong bullish momentum yesterday, so although the main scenario remains bearish, I will wait until we have a candle closed below the 23.6% Fibo (1.2274) area before thinking about short position testing 1.2140/50 region. On the other hand, if we have a candle that closed above the 38,2% Fibo (1.2350) , further bullish momentum targeting 1.2412 and 1.2472 can be expected before re-testing 1.2671 region.

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.2167 and closed at 1.2173. I said that the candle in the circle could give us a clue, and it did. Although we saw some upside attempts, price finally going down after the candle closed below 38.2% Fibo. This fact should keep the bearish scenario targeting 1.2000 area intact. However price is already oversold so watch out for potential upside correction. Immediate resistance at 1.2250. Break above that area could trigger further upside correction testing 1.2293 and 1.2364 resistance area but I still prefer a bearish scenario with short on rallies strategy.

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD failed to continue its bullish correction yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that the bullish channel has been violated to the downside indicating the end of the bullish correction phase and price ready to resume its major bearish scenario towards 1.2000 area especially if price able to move consistently below 1.2280/60 region. Although it’s obvious that technically this pair is set to push lower, note that the market remains tricky and still likely to have high volatility. Another intervention threat is still potential. Immediate resistance at 1.2440. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.2500 region

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD was traded lower earlier today in Asian session around 1.2480 at the time I wrote this comment after touched the major trendline support on Friday. On h4 chart below we can see that price is now testing the lower line of the bullish channel. Although the major scenario remains bearish, note that as long as price move in the bullish channel the bullish correction scenario remains intact and only a violation to the bullish channel can be a threat the bullish correction scenario. Also I have been watching an interesting phenomena lately where price tend to go lower in Asian session but go to the upside significantly in US session. Immediate support at 1.2440 area. Consistent move below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.2350 before testing 1.2280/60 region. Initial resistance at 1.2700 area. Consistent move above that area could be a serious threat to the major bearish scenario.

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Weekly Technical Update: Rotation Out of Risk and Commodity

Last week, I mentioned we should be getting ready for a rotation out of risk into commodity. This week, we saw commodity and commodity related currencies fall sharply. The Yen was a strong performer this week in the risk adverse environment. The Euro however, after exhausting declines, have finally bottomed for now near 1.22, and may be in an intermediate correction. By rotating out of equities and commodities, investors may be at the moment rotating into bonds, and treasuries.

EUR/USD Finds Short-term Bottom

Daily and Weekly: From the daily time-frame, we can see a bigger possible rally. I know just yesterday, I wrote “Bottom-pickers Go Away!” Well, signs are now finally showing a possible bottom. But I would still carry the same precaution and limit my expectation of a rally attempt.

The daily shows the 1.31 area at the 61.8% retracement, also coincident with where the SMA 50 should be, as well as a previous minor support turned into resistance. This is the furthest I would expect the rally to reach before another attempt at breaking the 1.24 support zone.

This means the market may have a tough time getting past here. But even before 1.31, 1.2750 is an important area to break above. Not shown here, but it is 61.8% retracement of the down swing from the start of May. The market may actually turn back down at the 1.2750 level.

A possible wave count is given, but is not resolved. From this scenario, the correction can actually reach 1.35. However, I am skeptical of that since so much resistance is at 1.31. (more…)

Pivot points are very useful tools that use the previous bars’ highs, lows and closings to project support and resistance levels for future bars. The following pivot point tables are based on standard pivot point formula. Five time frames are provided: hourly, 4 hours, daily, weekly, monthly.

Hourly

	S3	S2	S1	PP	R1	R2	R3	Chart	H	L	C
EURUSD	1.2276	1.2299	1.2313	1.2336	1.2350	1.2373	1.2387		1.2358	1.2321	1.2328
USDJPY	91.37	91.47	91.60	91.70	91.83	91.93	92.06		91.79	91.56	91.74
GBPUSD	1.4352	1.4362	1.4376	1.4386	1.4400	1.4410	1.4424		1.4397	1.4373	1.4389
USDCHF	1.1507	1.1518	1.1536	1.1547	1.1565	1.1576	1.1594		1.1559	1.1530	1.1553
AUDUSD	0.8347	0.8375	0.8403	0.8431	0.8459	0.8487	0.8515		0.8459	0.8403	0.8431
NZDUSD	0.6759	0.6768	0.6788	0.6797	0.6817	0.6826	0.6846		0.6807	0.6778	0.6807
USDCAD	1.0402	1.0422	1.0434	1.0454	1.0466	1.0486	1.0498		1.0475	1.0443	1.0445
EURJPY	112.35	112.62	112.86	113.13	113.37	113.64	113.88		113.41	112.90	113.09
EURGBP	0.8535	0.8549	0.8557	0.8571	0.8579	0.8593	0.8601		0.8584	0.8562	0.8566
EURCHF	1.4208	1.4220	1.4231	1.4243	1.4254	1.4266	1.4277		1.4255	1.4232	1.4242
EURAUD	1.4520	1.4561	1.4589	1.4630	1.4658	1.4699	1.4727		1.4670	1.4601	1.4618
EURNZD	1.7986	1.8044	1.8073	1.8131	1.8160	1.8218	1.8247		1.8188	1.8101	1.8103
EURCAD	1.2815	1.2845	1.2861	1.2891	1.2907	1.2937	1.2953		1.2921	1.2875	1.2877
GBPJPY	131.19	131.41	131.69	131.91	132.19	132.41	132.69		132.13	131.63	131.97
CHFJPY	78.99	79.13	79.27	79.41	79.55	79.69	79.83		79.56	79.28	79.40
AUDJPY	76.30	76.63	76.98	77.31	77.66	77.99	78.34		77.63	76.95	77.34
NZDJPY	61.83	61.96	62.19	62.32	62.55	62.68	62.91		62.44	62.08	62.43
CADJPY	87.06	87.22	87.51	87.67	87.96	88.12	88.41		87.83	87.38	87.80
GBPCHF	1.6558	1.6574	1.6598	1.6614	1.6638	1.6654	1.6678		1.6629	1.6589	1.6623
GBPAUD	1.6923	1.6969	1.7015	1.7061	1.7107	1.7153	1.7199		1.7106	1.7014	1.7062
GBPNZD	2.1011	2.1067	2.1097	2.1153	2.1183	2.1239	2.1269		2.1210	2.1124	2.1126
GBPCAD	1.4979	1.5003	1.5017	1.5041	1.5055	1.5079	1.5093		1.5066	1.5028	1.5030
AUDCHF	0.9651	0.9676	0.9708	0.9733	0.9765	0.9790	0.9822		0.9759	0.9702	0.9739
NZDCHF	0.7794	0.7809	0.7836	0.7851	0.7878	0.7893	0.7920		0.7865	0.7823	0.7864
CADCHF	1.0981	1.0996	1.1027	1.1042	1.1073	1.1088	1.1119		1.1058	1.1012	1.1057
AUDCAD	0.8753	0.8777	0.8791	0.8815	0.8829	0.8853	0.8867		0.8839	0.8801	0.8805
NZDCAD	0.7084	0.7089	0.7100	0.7105	0.7116	0.7121	0.7132		0.7111	0.7095	0.7110
AUDNZD	1.2307	1.2343	1.2362	1.2398	1.2417	1.2453	1.2472		1.2434	1.2379	1.2381

Last Updated: May 20 02:35 GMT

Based on Bar of May 20 02:00 GMT

4 Hours

	S3	S2	S1	PP	R1	R2	R3	Chart	H	L	C
EURUSD	1.2234	1.2289	1.2321	1.2376	1.2408	1.2463	1.2495		1.2431	1.2344	1.2353
USDJPY	91.23	91.38	91.58	91.73	91.93	92.08	92.28		91.87	91.52	91.79
GBPUSD	1.4293	1.4342	1.4368	1.4417	1.4443	1.4492	1.4518		1.4465	1.4390	1.4395
USDCHF	1.1451	1.1471	1.1505	1.1525	1.1559	1.1579	1.1613		1.1545	1.1491	1.1539
AUDUSD	0.8394	0.8423	0.8440	0.8469	0.8486	0.8515	0.8532		0.8497	0.8451	0.8458
NZDUSD	0.6725	0.6752	0.6777	0.6804	0.6829	0.6856	0.6881		0.6832	0.6780	0.6801
USDCAD	1.0360	1.0381	1.0415	1.0436	1.0470	1.0491	1.0525		1.0457	1.0402	1.0449
EURJPY	112.30	112.80	113.10	113.60	113.90	114.40	114.70		114.11	113.31	113.39
EURGBP	0.8535	0.8553	0.8566	0.8584	0.8597	0.8615	0.8628		0.8602	0.8571	0.8579
EURCHF	1.4178	1.4213	1.4234	1.4269	1.4290	1.4325	1.4346		1.4305	1.4249	1.4254
EURAUD	1.4489	1.4539	1.4570	1.4620	1.4651	1.4701	1.4732		1.4669	1.4588	1.4602
EURNZD	1.7895	1.8013	1.8084	1.8202	1.8273	1.8391	1.8462		1.8319	1.8130	1.8156
EURCAD	1.2801	1.2850	1.2879	1.2928	1.2957	1.3006	1.3035		1.2978	1.2900	1.2907
GBPJPY	130.78	131.32	131.72	132.26	132.66	133.20	133.60		132.79	131.85	132.13
CHFJPY	78.89	79.12	79.33	79.56	79.77	80.00	80.21		79.80	79.36	79.53
AUDJPY	76.79	77.11	77.37	77.69	77.95	78.27	78.53		78.01	77.43	77.63
NZDJPY	61.62	61.86	62.14	62.38	62.66	62.90	63.18		62.62	62.10	62.42
CADJPY	87.00	87.32	87.57	87.89	88.14	88.46	88.71		88.21	87.64	87.82
GBPCHF	1.6553	1.6577	1.6594	1.6618	1.6635	1.6659	1.6676		1.6642	1.6601	1.6611
GBPAUD	1.6888	1.6932	1.6973	1.7017	1.7058	1.7102	1.7143		1.7060	1.6975	1.7015
GBPNZD	2.0867	2.0983	2.1069	2.1185	2.1271	2.1387	2.1473		2.1300	2.1098	2.1156
GBPCAD	1.4965	1.5000	1.5021	1.5056	1.5077	1.5112	1.5133		1.5091	1.5035	1.5042
AUDCHF	0.9680	0.9705	0.9732	0.9757	0.9784	0.9809	0.9836		0.9783	0.9731	0.9758
NZDCHF	0.7719	0.7755	0.7801	0.7837	0.7883	0.7919	0.7965		0.7873	0.7791	0.7847
CADCHF	1.0962	1.0982	1.1011	1.1031	1.1060	1.1080	1.1109		1.1051	1.1002	1.1040
AUDCAD	0.8787	0.8807	0.8821	0.8841	0.8855	0.8875	0.8889		0.8860	0.8826	0.8836
NZDCAD	0.7012	0.7039	0.7072	0.7099	0.7132	0.7159	0.7192		0.7126	0.7066	0.7105
AUDNZD	1.2304	1.2354	1.2393	1.2443	1.2482	1.2532	1.2571		1.2494	1.2405	1.2431

Last Updated: May 20 02:35 GMT

Based on Bar of May 20 01:00 GMT (more…)

Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.2443 but whipsawed to the downside, bottomed at 1.2164 and closed at 1.2201. Technically this fact opens the door for further bearish scenario testing my weekly target around 1.2000 area as I see no more significant technical support or upside correction pattern so far except price already in oversold area. In a bearish market, oversold area should only be seen as a potential correction before continue to push lower. Immediate resistance at 1.2280 area. Unless we have high impact news or data that could pause Dollar strength, I don’t expect any movement higher than that area today. However, break above that area could trigger further upside correction testing 1.2320 area but I still prefer bearish scenario at this phase with short on rallies strategy.

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Pivot points are very useful tools that use the previous bars’ highs, lows and closings to project support and resistance levels for future bars. The following pivot point tables are based on standard pivot point formula. Five time frames are provided: hourly, 4 hours, daily, weekly, monthly.

Hourly

	S3	S2	S1	PP	R1	R2	R3	Chart	H	L	C
EURUSD	1.2119	1.2135	1.2159	1.2175	1.2199	1.2215	1.2239		1.2192	1.2152	1.2182
USDJPY	91.31	91.43	91.60	91.72	91.89	92.01	92.18		91.84	91.55	91.77
GBPUSD	1.4190	1.4214	1.4235	1.4259	1.4280	1.4304	1.4325		1.4282	1.4237	1.4257
USDCHF	1.1442	1.1463	1.1479	1.1500	1.1516	1.1537	1.1553		1.1522	1.1485	1.1494
AUDUSD	0.8478	0.8497	0.8523	0.8542	0.8568	0.8587	0.8613		0.8560	0.8515	0.8550
NZDUSD	0.6799	0.6814	0.6837	0.6852	0.6875	0.6890	0.6913		0.6868	0.6830	0.6859
USDCAD	1.0379	1.0398	1.0410	1.0429	1.0441	1.0460	1.0472		1.0447	1.0416	1.0423
EURJPY	110.71	110.98	111.39	111.66	112.07	112.34	112.75		111.94	111.26	111.79
EURGBP	0.8515	0.8522	0.8532	0.8539	0.8549	0.8556	0.8566		0.8546	0.8529	0.8542
EURCHF	1.4000	1.4002	1.4003	1.4005	1.4006	1.4008	1.4009		1.4007	1.4004	1.4004
EURAUD	1.4187	1.4211	1.4228	1.4252	1.4269	1.4293	1.4310		1.4275	1.4234	1.4246
EURNZD	1.7664	1.7698	1.7725	1.7759	1.7786	1.7820	1.7847		1.7793	1.7732	1.7752
EURCAD	1.2664	1.2677	1.2687	1.2700	1.2710	1.2723	1.2733		1.2713	1.2690	1.2697
GBPJPY	129.73	130.05	130.44	130.76	131.15	131.47	131.86		131.08	130.37	130.83
CHFJPY	79.04	79.24	79.53	79.73	80.02	80.22	80.51		79.93	79.44	79.82
AUDJPY	77.46	77.71	78.08	78.33	78.70	78.95	79.32		78.58	77.96	78.45
NZDJPY	62.12	62.33	62.63	62.84	63.14	63.35	63.65		63.04	62.53	62.94
CADJPY	87.20	87.40	87.71	87.91	88.22	88.42	88.73		88.12	87.61	88.01
GBPCHF	1.6338	1.6360	1.6374	1.6396	1.6410	1.6432	1.6446		1.6418	1.6382	1.6388
GBPAUD	1.6602	1.6632	1.6652	1.6682	1.6702	1.6732	1.6752		1.6712	1.6662	1.6672
GBPNZD	2.0630	2.0690	2.0732	2.0792	2.0834	2.0894	2.0936		2.0852	2.0750	2.0774
GBPCAD	1.4787	1.4818	1.4839	1.4870	1.4891	1.4922	1.4943		1.4901	1.4849	1.4860
AUDCHF	0.9784	0.9795	0.9812	0.9823	0.9840	0.9851	0.9868		0.9835	0.9807	0.9828
NZDCHF	0.7844	0.7855	0.7870	0.7881	0.7896	0.7907	0.7922		0.7893	0.7867	0.7884
CADCHF	1.0995	1.1003	1.1014	1.1022	1.1033	1.1041	1.1052		1.1031	1.1012	1.1024
AUDCAD	0.8862	0.8878	0.8896	0.8912	0.8930	0.8946	0.8964		0.8929	0.8895	0.8913
NZDCAD	0.7112	0.7123	0.7137	0.7148	0.7162	0.7173	0.7187		0.7160	0.7135	0.7150
AUDNZD	1.2420	1.2433	1.2447	1.2460	1.2474	1.2487	1.2501		1.2474	1.2447	1.2460

Last Updated: May 19 02:15 GMT

Based on Bar of May 19 02:00 GMT (more…)

Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.2234 but closed higher at 1.2395 in a volatile market. Price was traded lower around 1.2340 at the time I wrote this comment in Asian session as bullish pressure seems to lose some momentum. However on daily chart below we have a hammer candle stick formation, which is a bullish pattern. Of course it’s too early for a bullish reversal scenario and the main scenario remains to the downside, but I never ignore any reversal/correction signal. Immediate support at 1.2320. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.2230/00 area. Initial resistance at 1.2465 area. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum and could be an early warning of potential significant bullish correction signaled by the hammer at least testing 1.2500 key resistance area.

(more…)

Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD continued its bearish momentum on Friday, bottomed at 1.2365 and closed at 1.2378. Technically in longer term view, this fact could trigger further bearish scenario targeting 1.2000 area this week after convincing move below the major trendline support and only a movement above 1.2500 could diminish the bearish outlook. Immediate support at 1.2280 area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum targeting 1.2200 region. Initial resistance at 1.2420 area. Break above that area could trigger further upside correction but the main scenario remains bearish and I still prefer short on rallies strategy at this phase.

(more…)

Pivot points are very useful tools that use the previous bars’ highs, lows and closings to project support and resistance levels for future bars. The following pivot point tables are based on standard pivot point formula. Five time frames are provided: hourly, 4 hours, daily, weekly, monthly.

Hourly

	S3	S2	S1	PP	R1	R2	R3	Chart	H	L	C
EURUSD	1.2110	1.2172	1.2220	1.2282	1.2330	1.2392	1.2440		1.2343	1.2233	1.2269
USDJPY	91.42	91.69	91.85	92.12	92.28	92.55	92.71		92.39	91.96	92.01
GBPUSD	1.4079	1.4165	1.4237	1.4323	1.4395	1.4481	1.4553		1.4409	1.4251	1.4309
USDCHF	1.1255	1.1300	1.1356	1.1401	1.1457	1.1502	1.1558		1.1446	1.1345	1.1412
AUDUSD	0.8662	0.8697	0.8728	0.8763	0.8794	0.8829	0.8860		0.8797	0.8731	0.8760
NZDUSD	0.6935	0.6966	0.6993	0.7024	0.7051	0.7082	0.7109		0.7056	0.6998	0.7019
USDCAD	1.0329	1.0354	1.0386	1.0411	1.0443	1.0468	1.0500		1.0437	1.0380	1.0417
EURJPY	110.84	111.68	112.29	113.13	113.74	114.58	115.19		113.98	112.53	112.89
EURGBP	0.8516	0.8533	0.8553	0.8570	0.8590	0.8607	0.8627		0.8587	0.8550	0.8573
EURCHF	1.4000	1.4002	1.4002	1.4004	1.4004	1.4006	1.4006		1.4005	1.4003	1.4003
EURAUD	1.3939	1.3970	1.3986	1.4017	1.4033	1.4064	1.4080		1.4047	1.4000	1.4003
EURNZD	1.7379	1.7414	1.7443	1.7478	1.7507	1.7542	1.7571		1.7514	1.7450	1.7471
EURCAD	1.2696	1.2730	1.2755	1.2789	1.2814	1.2848	1.2873		1.2823	1.2764	1.2780
GBPJPY	128.79	129.93	130.78	131.92	132.77	133.91	134.76		133.06	131.07	131.63
CHFJPY	79.17	79.76	80.19	80.78	81.21	81.80	82.23		81.38	80.36	80.61
AUDJPY	79.29	79.81	80.20	80.72	81.11	81.63	82.02		81.23	80.32	80.60
NZDJPY	63.43	63.90	64.23	64.70	65.03	65.50	65.83		65.16	64.36	64.57
CADJPY	87.10	87.60	87.95	88.45	88.80	89.30	89.65		88.95	88.10	88.30
GBPCHF	1.6219	1.6260	1.6295	1.6336	1.6371	1.6412	1.6447		1.6378	1.6302	1.6329
GBPAUD	1.6194	1.6253	1.6291	1.6350	1.6388	1.6447	1.6485		1.6408	1.6311	1.6330
GBPNZD	2.0198	2.0262	2.0319	2.0383	2.0440	2.0504	2.0561		2.0448	2.0327	2.0375
GBPCAD	1.4750	1.4810	1.4857	1.4917	1.4964	1.5024	1.5071		1.4976	1.4869	1.4905
AUDCHF	0.9944	0.9956	0.9976	0.9988	1.0008	1.0020	1.0040		0.9999	0.9967	0.9997
NZDCHF	0.7961	0.7975	0.7993	0.8007	0.8025	0.8039	0.8057		0.8022	0.7990	0.8010
CADCHF	1.0863	1.0890	1.0921	1.0948	1.0979	1.1006	1.1037		1.0975	1.0917	1.0952
AUDCAD	0.9072	0.9086	0.9106	0.9120	0.9140	0.9154	0.9174		0.9134	0.9100	0.9126
NZDCAD	0.7247	0.7267	0.7289	0.7309	0.7331	0.7351	0.7373		0.7329	0.7287	0.7311
AUDNZD	1.2406	1.2423	1.2450	1.2467	1.2494	1.2511	1.2538		1.2485	1.2441	1.2476

Last Updated: May 17 03:30 GMT

Based on Bar of May 17 03:00 GMT (more…)

CHF

The anticipated test of key supports has been confirmed with conditions for implementation of the pre-planned buying positions. OsMA trend indicator, having marked preserved fall in activity of both parties, does not deliver additional arguments favoring either holding or closing open long positions. Therefore, considering open long positions, the target levels remain at 1,1140/60, 1,1200/20, 1,1250/60 and (or) further break-out variant up to 1,1300/20, 1,1360/80, 1,1420/40. The alternative for sales will be below 1,0980 with the targets of 1,0920/40, 1,0860/80, 1,0800/20.

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.2738 but closed lower at 1.2614 and traded around 1.2637 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is neutral in nearest term but the main scenario remains bearish. Immediate resistance at 1.2690. Break above that area could trigger further bullish correction testing 1.2750 – 1.2800 region. Initial support at 1.2523/00 region. Consistent move below that area should continue the major bearish scenario targeting 1.2300 area in longer term view.

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