FOREX TRADING

USD Higher, Jobs Claims Rise, Durable Goods Strong

• USD: Higher, concern about Greek debt troubles and weaker US jobs data fuels risk aversion
• JPY: Higher, supported by safe haven demand and gains in cross trade
• EUR: Lower, S & P may downgrade the Greek debt rating, Greek rescue may be at risk
• GBP: Lower, UK Q4 business investment dropped sharply
• CAD and AUD: AUD & CAD lower, pressured by a spike in risk aversion, RBA rate hike speculation ignored

Overview

The USD traded higher and the JPY surged supported by a spike in risk aversion sparked by report of a sharp rise in US jobless claims and fresh concern about the Greek debt crisis. Wednesday the US reported that January new home sales fell to a record low. The decline in home sales follows Tuesday’s release of a sharp drop in US consumer confidence consumer confidence. These reports and today’s jobs claims report generate concern about the outlook for the US recovery. A report in the UK telegraph that the Greek rescue plan may be in jeopardy because of comments made by the Greek Deputy PM about Germany’s Nazi war atrocities coupled with increased risk of a downgrade of the Greek debt rating sent European currencies lower. The JPY traded at a one-year high versus the EUR. GBP traded at a nine month low versus the USD pressured by concern about UK debt and report a sharp drop in UK Q4 businesses investment. Commodity currencies traded lower pressured by a spike in risk aversion sparked by weaker equity market trade. AUD weakened despite RBA rate hike speculation. RBA watcher McCrann says there’s nothing standing in the way of a 25bps rate hike next Tuesday. US economic data was mixed with jobless claims posting a sharp rise. Jobless claims are at their highest level since last November. Durable goods came in almost 3 times as strong as expected. The jump in durable gods reflects a sharp increase in civilian aircraft orders. USD extended its gains and the JPY traded at a new high for the day after the release of the unexpected spike in US jobless claims. Fed Chairman Bernanke suggested that weather may be impacting the jobs report but his comments had limited impact and stocks traded sharply lower in reaction to jobless claims report. (more…)

USD Higher, Jobs and Durable Goods Data Disappoints

• USD: Higher, jobless claims declined less than expected, durable goods rise less than expected
• JPY: Mixed, pressured by improving risk appetite, retail sales declined more than expected
• EUR: Lower, Greek fiscal concern, rumors of Greek bailout denied, business confidence at a 10 month high
• GBP: Mixed, Chancellor Darling says UK plans to halve its deficit over the next four years
• CAD and AUD: AUD & CAD higher, Australia may speed up spending cuts, hawkish RBNZ

Overview

USD, JPY and EUR traded lower with GBP and commodity currencies trading higher Thursday. The decline in USD and JPY is attributed to improving risk sentiment sparked by President Obama’s proposal in the State of the Union address to reduce taxes on businesses to boost growth and in reaction to the FOMC January statement which says the US economy is in recovery. The FOMC also indicated that it plans to begin withdrawal of extraordinary stimulus measures. EUR was pressured by concern about sovereign debt risk in Greece as the Greek EU ten year bond spread is at its widest level since Greece adopted the EUR in 2001 and China’s central bank says the nation should not buy Greece’s debt. GBP continued to outperform and rallied to a five month high versus the EUR supported by comments from UK Chancellor Darling that the UK has the most aggressive deficit reduction plan amongst the industrialized nations. Commodity currencies traded higher tracking improving risk appetite, firmer equity market trade and in reaction to hawkish comments from the RBNZ. RBNZ governor says that the central bank will begin to withdraw stimulus mid-year. US economic data was mixed. Jobless claims declined by less than expected and durable goods posted a smaller than expected rise. These reports may generate concern about the strength of the US recovery and raise questions about the FOMC’s optimism about the US economic recovery. USD edged higher after the release of these reports as equity markets traded lower. The trade awaits news on Fed Chairman Bernanke’s nomination and focus turns to Friday’s release of US advanced Q4 GDP. (more…)

U.S. Review

Disappointing Economic Data Continue in January

• The economic data this week largely disappointed equity investors and missed analyst expectations.
• Homebuilder confidence has ebbed as new home sales remain sluggish and buyer traffic has dropped since September.
• A pull-back in the January Philly Fed index has raised concerns about the strength of the economic recovery in the first quarter.
• Expect slower economic activity in January following robust improvement in the fourth quarter.

Reality Bites

Political upheaval in Washington with the election of Republican Scott Brown to the Senate turned conventional wisdom on healthcare reform and financial sector reform on its head this week. Regulatory risk has risen against the banking industry as the Obama Administration tries to score political points off of popular anger over bank bailouts and executive compensation and bonuses. At the same time, the economic data released this week pointed to weaker expansion as the first quarter gets underway.

The NAHB/Wells Fargo builders’ sentiment index dropped another point in January to 15 from a post-bubble peak of 19 last September. The index is still seven points above where it was a year ago. Prospective buyer traffic has dropped five points since September’s first time homebuyer credit surge. Regionally, the biggest declines in the housing market index since September have come from the Midwest followed by the Northeast and South. The regional index in the West has been comparatively steady.

Housing starts took a step backward in December dropping 4.0 percent as rough weather seems to have hampered single-family starts, which dropped 6.9 percent. On a more encouraging note, multi-family starts jumped another 12.2 percent in December after a steep 70 percent increase in November. The permits data continue to point toward a sustainable recovery in housing activity. Housing permits have risen for two consecutive months, gaining another 10.9 percent in December. Total housing permits are now running 15.8 percent above year ago rates with single-family permits running a whopping 37.3 percent above last year’s rates.

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