FOREX TRADING

Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD was corrected lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.5031 and closed at 1.5047. On h4 chart below we can see that after violated the bearish channel, price retreat lower towards the upper line of the bearish channel, but this is considered just as a normal technical movement and correction so far. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall I am still in a buy mode for this pair targeting 1.5140/50 area before aim for 1.5300. Only break below 1.4950/20 area could trigger further bearish momentum re-testing 1.4850/20 key support area and major trendline support (red). Immediate support at 1.5031 (yesterday’s low) and the upper line of the bearish channel. Break below those area could trigger another bearish pressure, diminish the bullish rally, testing 1.4950/20 even 1.4820 area

(more…)

Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.4989 and closed at 1.4959 after rejected to move consistently below 1.4820 key support area and even after Trichet said that he support a strong Dollar. However, on my daily chart below the bearish channel remains valid and the upper line of the bearish channel provide a good resistance. So I think the bearish correction even a bearish reversal scenario (double top) is still intact. Once again, we need violation to the bearish channel to end this bearish correction and valid break above 1.5062 to confirm the bullish scenario towards 1.5150 and 1.5300

(more…)

Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

What a surprise we had yesterday. As you can see in my h4 chart below, after violated the bearish channel, actually this pair had a nice bullish momentum before Bernanke dropped the bomb with his pessimistic comment about economy recovery by saying this words: ‘Today, financial conditions are considerably better than they were then, but significant economic challenges remain. The flow of credit remains constrained, economic activity weak, and unemployment much too high. Future setbacks are possible’ Euro fell after that comment, hit the bottom at 1.4879 as risk aversion came back. I didn’t expected this negative tone but another surprise happened as the Euro recovered quickly, peaked at 1.5015 and closed at 1.4967. I thought that Bernanke’s pessimistic tone will support technical bearish reversal scenario, but it didn’t. I was wrong, but for me nothing is confirmed yet for now. To read Bernanke’s full comment, follow this link below:

Regardless of mixed reaction in the market on Bernanke’s words, technically, the fact that this pair still able to stay above 1.4950/60 right now should continue the pressure on Dollar re-testing 1.5062 today. However for me, only movement above 1.5062 could be seen as bullish continuation confirmation targeting 1.5150 and 1.5300. Immediate support at 1.4920 area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum re-testing key support 1.4850/20 area.

(more…)

Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

In my weekly summary on Saturday, I said that in order to complete the valid double top formation, the second bearish channel (yellow) must remain valid. Well, looks like the channel has been violated to the upside earlier today in Asian session as you can see in my h4 chart below. This fact should diminish the double top bearish reversal scenario and the pressure is now more to the upside, but it’s too early to say that double top bearish reversal scenario is over. I think this pair need consistent move above 1.4950/60 to continue upside pressure re-testing 1.5062. A failure to do so could be considered as a false breakout and trigger significant bearish momentum. Only break above 1.5062 should be seen as double top scenario failure and could lead to bullish continuation scenario targeting 1.5150 and 1.5300 area. On the downside, key support level remains at 1.4850/20 area. Break below that area should keep the valid double top scenario intact towards 1.4625 and 1.4450 area.

(more…)

Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.4821 and closed at 1.4844. The valid double top bearish reversal scenario on daily chart I said yesterday surely now in a good progress as bullish momentum seems exhausted but once again, we need consistent movement below 1.4850 and a clear break below the major trendline support in order to confirm the scenario towards 1.4625 even 1.4450 area.

(more…)

Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD made indecisive movement yesterday. The pair attempted to push lower, bottomed at 1.4937 but closed higher at 1.4983. I think the pair is now consolidating after significant bullish on Monday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but bullish scenario should remains intact, at least indicated by a bullish channel (yellow) as you can see in my h4 chart below. Immediate support is seen at 1.4930 and lower line of the bullish channel. Break below that area could trigger further bearish correction testing 1.4850 and the major trendline resistance area (blue) and could be a potential threat to my bullish outlook. I still prefer and expect a bullish scenario for this week but I think we need a clear break above 1.5062 to confirm bullish scenario towards 1.5150 and 1.5300. Expected range at 1.4930 – 1.5062.

(more…)