FOREX TRADING

Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD failed to continue its bullish momentum yesterday. Price attempted to push higher, topped at 1.3691 but further bullish pressure was rejected as price whipsawed to the downside, bottomed at 1.3566 and closed at 1.3591. Looks like price now is trying to fill the gap and testing 1.3530 area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum testing 1.3450 region. Initial resistance at 1.3700. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.3750 – 1.3830 area.

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD jumped higher today, opened at 1.3626 after Greek bailout, made more than 100 pips gap. Although the bearish channel has been violated to the upside by this event and suggest bullish reversal scenario, usually gaps are filled, so we need to stay calm and must not rush. I think I will stand aside for now. Immediate resistance at 1.3700. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum towards 1.3750 even testing 1.3830 region as the nearest technical bullish reversal target this week. Initial support at 1.3530. Break below that area should raise doubt that the current bullish momentum is just a short term reaction while the bearish scenario should remain intact.

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.3282 but further bearish pressure was rejected as price whipsawed to the upside and closed at 1.3360. The main bearish scenario remains intact but the nearest bias is neutral. I have two technical view which support bullish correction (even potential reversal). First, price seems to find a bottom around 1.3267/82 area. Second, we have a bullish divergence as you can see on my h4 chart below. Immediate resistance at 1.3450. Break above that area could be a serious threat to the bearish outlook testing 1.3530. We need a clear break below 1.3267/82 area to confirm bearish continuation towards 1.3100.

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD had a moderate bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.3325 and closed at 1.3342. The fact that price so far able to stay below 1.3350 should continue the bearish outlook towards 1.3267 area before aim for 1.3100. Another movement back above 1.3350 could lead us into no trading zone in nearest term, leaves the door open for another upside correction testing 1.3400 – 1.3450 but the main bias should remain to the downside.

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday after violation of the minor bullish channel, bottomed at 1.3355 and closed at 1.3396. Overall my technical outlook remains bearish for this pair but the bias is neutral in nearest term. We need a consistent move below 1.3350 to continue the bearish scenario testing 1.3267 before aim for 1.3100. On the upside, I will pay attention to the key resistance at 1.3450. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum towards 1.3530 region and surely diminish the bearish outlook.

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:

The EURUSD failed to continue its bullish momentum on Friday. The major bearish channel still hold so far indicating the major bearish scenario remains intact but the bullish correction also still intact as price still move inside the minor bullish channel (white channel). We need a violation to one of those channels to see clearer direction. Violation to the bearish channel could be seen as potential bearish failure and a new bullish phase targeting 1.3817 and 1.4000 area while violation to the bullish channel could end the bullish correction phase testing 1.3100 area. Immediate resistance at 1.3569 (March 23 high). Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum towards 1.3650 and could be a serious threat to the bearish scenario. Initial support at 1.3450. Break below that area could be seen as the end of the bullish correction and continue the major bearish scenario.

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Forecast:

The EURUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that price is now struggling around the upper line of the major bearish channel indicating critical technical phase as a break above the bearish channel could be seen as bearish failure and a beginning of bullish phase. Immediate support at 1.3520/30. Break below that area should keep the bearish scenario intact testing 1.3450. Initial resistance at 1.3650/80 area. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.3750 even 1.3817 as bullish reversal scenario confirmed. Fundamental focus today will be on US NFP. A good result may support the Dollar and keep the bearish scenario intact while a bad result may support the bullish reversal scenario.

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.3547 and closed at 1.3508 after positive results of Euro zone unemployment and CPI data. The bias is bullish in nearest term. On daily chart below we can see that price is now ready to test the bearish channel indicating critical technical phase with potential bullish reversal scenario. However, as long as the bearish channel valid, the main trend remains bearish. Trend exist until it’s broken. Immediate resistance at 1.3580 – 1.3600 area. Break above that area could be a serious threat to the bearish outlook at least testing 1.3817 and a beginning of a new bullish phase. Initial support at 1.3530. Break below that area should keep the bearish scenario intact testing 1.3450.

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD was indecisive yesterday. On h1 chart below we can see that price moves in range area of 1.3417 – 1.3507 indicating consolidation after bullish correction on Friday. The bias is neutral in nearest term. The major trend remains bearish but the fact that price so far still able to move consistently above 1.3450 area still indicating potential further upside correction testing the upper line of the major bearish channel. We need a break from the range area to see clearer direction. Break above 1.3507 could trigger further upside correction testing 1.3600 area while a break below 1.3417 not only could trigger further bearish momentum testing 1.3340 but potentially end the bullish correction phase testing 1.3250 and 1.3100 region.

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD still maintain its bullish momentum earlier today in Asian market since triggered by hope on solution of Greek debt problem on Friday, slipped above 1.3450 but retreat lower around 1.3430 at the time I wrote this comment. Situation can be very tricky at this phase. The bias is bullish in nearest term. The major bearish scenario remains intact as long as price stay inside the bearish channel but we have potential upside risk. Note that Greek problem responsible for the Euro bearish momentum. So if the market optimism continues to grow and no longer see Greek problem as serious matter, then we have a good reason for bullish reversal scenario, especially if price violate the bearish channel. Immediate support at 1.3400. Break below that area should keep the bearish scenario intact testing 1.3300 – 1.3250 before testing 1.3100. Initial resistance at 1.3480. Break above that area should trigger further upside pressure testing 1.3530 and the upper line of the bearish channel which can be a serious threat to the technical bearish outlook.

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.3385 but further upside correction was rejected as price closed lower at 1.3286. Earlier today in Asian session price is traded higher around 1.3315. The bias is neutral in nearest term but the main outlook remains bearish for this pair with 1.3100 as nearest technical target. Immediate resistance at 1.3350/80. Break above that area could trigger further upside correction testing 1.3450/35 area. Only a movement above 1.3450 area could be seen as a serious threat to the bearish scenario. Initial support at 1.3250. Break below that area should continue the bearish scenario towards 1.3100 region.

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD dropped significantly on Portugal downgrade yesterday. Price break below 1.3450/35 key support area, confirms technical bearishness targeting 1.3100 this week. Trichet is going to speak today and it make sense for me that probably he will say something ‘positive’ about the Euro zone or the Euro to prevent further and faster drop. Whether market will believe it or not is something I’d like to see. Immediate resistance at 1.3380 area. Break above that area could trigger further bullish correction testing 1.3450 as correction after significant bearish move should not be a surprise and the fact that price already in extreme oversold area, but I am in bearish mode for this pair. Initial support at 1.3250/70 area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum towards 1.3100/50 area.

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD had a volatile movement yesterday but still able to maintain its bearish momentum as further upside pressure was rejected at the trendline resistance, closed lower at 1.3494 and keep moving lower around 1.3467 at the time I wrote this comment. We are now in critical technical phase where price ready to test the 1.3450/35 key support area. However, no matter how strong the downside pressure is, I believe we need a consistent and clear movement below 1.3450/35 to confirm further bearish scenario targeting 1.3100 this week. Above 1.3450/35, any upside pullback is still open wide. Immediate resistance at 1.3530 area. Break above that area could trigger further upside correction testing 1.3600/50 region.

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.3463 but further bearish momentum was rejected as price whipsawed to the upside and closed at 1.3566. The bias is neutral in nearest term. I am still expecting further downside pressure after violation of the bullish channel re-testing key support area around 1.3545/35 area before targeting 1.3100 this week. However, I will pay attention to 1.3600/10 resistance area today. Break above that area could trigger further bullish testing 1.3700/50 region. Initial support at 1.3500. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum re-testing 1.3450/35.

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD continued its bearish momentum on Friday, bottomed at 1.3502 and closed at 1.3528. The key support level to be tested at this phase is the triple bottom area around 1.3450/35 area as technical bearishness was strong after the violation of the bullish channel. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum targeting 1.3100 this week. Immediate resistance at 1.3580. Break above that area should trigger further upside correction testing 1.3650 area

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