Posts Tagged ‘Daily Technical Analysis EURUSD Outlook’
Daily Technical Analysis EURUSD Outlook – 09.22.2010
Wednesday, September 22nd, 2010The EURUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday after market react positively on FMOC statement. Although most part of the statement didn’t show significant change from the previous releases, the Fed willingness to “provide additional accommodation if needed to support the economic recovery” triggered risk appetite and push Euro higher. This positive reaction on global recovery could remain stay in the market at least in nearest future and give further support to the Euro. On daily chart below we can see price made a strong breakout above the trend line resistance indicating potential bullish continuation testing 1.3500 region especially if price able to make another break above 1.3333 (August 06 high). Immediate support at 1.3250/00 area. As long as price stay above that area, technical bias remains strongly bullish.
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Daily Technical Analysis EURUSD Outlook – 09.21.2010
Tuesday, September 21st, 2010The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.3120 but closed lower at 1.3062 in a volatile but indecisive market. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as price move above the minor trend line support (white) we are still in strong bullish phase testing 1.3200 and the trend line resistance area. Immediate support at 1.3028 (yesterday’s low). Break below that area could trigger further bearish pullback towards 1.2930 region. On the upside we still need a clear break above 1.3120 to continue the bullish pressure. Fundamental focus will be on FOMC statement. An optimistic tone by The Fed could trigger risk appetite and push Euro higher while a pessimistic tone could trigger risk aversion sentiment and push Euro lower. Price likely to stay volatile ahead and during FOMC meeting.
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Daily Technical Analysis EURUSD Outlook – 09.20.2010
Monday, September 20th, 2010The EURUSD bullish momentum was paused on Friday after bad US CPI and consumer sentiment numbers triggered risk aversion. Overall we are still in bullish phase but need another break above 1.3120 to continue the upside pressure re-testing 1.3200 and the trend line resistance area. On the downside, immediate support at minor trend line support (white) and 1.3000. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pullback testing 1.2920.
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Daily Technical Analysis EURUSD Outlook – 09.03.2010
Friday, September 3rd, 2010The EURUSD didn’t make significant movement yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but we are still in bullish correction phase as price is moving strongly inside the bullish channel as you can see on my h1 chart below. A break above the trend line resistance could trigger further upside momentum testing 1.2930. On the downside only a violation to the bullish channel and movement below 1.2770 support area could trigger bearish continuation at least testing 1.2700. Pay attention to US Non Farm Payroll data today.
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Daily Technical Analysis EURUSD Outlook – 09.02.2010
Thursday, September 2nd, 2010The EURUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.2854 and closed at 1.2807 after price break above the triangle. Positive data from China and Australia trigger risk appetite and hurt the Dollar. The “head and shoulders” bearish scenario remains intact but clearly under heavy pressure as price is now move above the neckline (1.2700). A new trend line resistance (yellow) is drawn as a result of yesterday’s price action. Break above that trend line and 1.2854 could trigger further upside pressure testing the right shoulder of the H&S formation around 1.2930 which could be a serious threat to the bearish outlook and potential bullish reversal scenario. On the downside, I think we need another move below 1.2700 to see further bearish pressure.
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Daily Technical Analysis EURUSD Outlook – 08.27.2010
Friday, August 27th, 2010The EURUSD continue to make upside pressure yesterday, topped at 1.2763 but still unable to move consistently above 1.2730, traded lower around 1.2700 at the time I wrote this comment. We are still in upside correction phase as long as price move inside the minor bullish channel but the major scenario remains bearish. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Another upside movement above 1.2730 could trigger another upside pressure testing 1.2770 – 1.2825. On the downside, a movement below 1.2650 and violation to the downside of the minor bullish channel could potentially end the upside correction testing 1.2587 – 1.2523 and keep the bearish scenario remains strong.
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Daily Technical Analysis EURUSD Outlook – 08.26.2010
Thursday, August 26th, 2010The EURUSD made another upside attempt yesterday, topped at 1.2726 but further upside pressure was still limited and traded lower around 1.2670 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is neutral in nearest term and still within a bearish context but price is bouncing to the upside from 1.2587, moving in a minor bullish channel. We need a violation to the downside of the minor bullish channel to continue the bearish scenario. Break above 1.2730 could trigger further upside pressure testing 1.2770 – 1.2825 region before testing 1.2930 which could be a serious threat to the bearish scenario. Immediate support at 1.2620. Break below that area could trigger further downside pressure re-testing 1.2587 – 1.2523 and keep the bearish scenario intact.
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Daily Technical Analysis EURUSD Outlook – 08.25.2010
Wednesday, August 25th, 2010The EURUSD has been moving in volatile but indecisive market for the last 48 hours. After the confirmation of “head and shoulders” bearish reversal scenario, now price is moving in a new bearish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below. This bearish outlook can only be cancelled by a movement above the right shoulder of the H&S formation which is around 1.2930 and violation to the bearish channel. Immediate resistance at 1.2730 followed by 1.2770. We will have some high impact data from the Euro zone and US today. The Euro usually move higher after data release lately but the bullish moves were short lived. Tricky market, but I am still on the bearish side.
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Daily Technical Analysis EURUSD Outlook – 08.24.2010
Tuesday, August 24th, 2010The EURUSD continued its bearish pressure yesterday and seems convincingly move below 1.2700 area. This fact could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.2523 – 1.2470 region as the ‘head and shoulders’ bearish reversal scenario is now confirmed. Another upside pullback above 1.2700 will lead us to neutral zone as direction is unclear but I think overall the pressure is more to the downside and I prefer short on rallies at this phase.
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Daily Technical Analysis EURUSD Outlook – 08.13.2010
Friday, August 13th, 2010The EURUSD was indecisive yesterday. I found something interesting about the CCI behavior on h4 chart below. Here is the situation: Price still move in bullish channel, indicating we are in bullish phase, but corrected lower from 1.3332 to 1.2782. Now look at my CCI. The A part show that the bullish gained its momentum back after being in oversold area and cross the -100 line up. The B part show that CCI cross the -100 line up, but the bearish pressure didn’t stop and price keep under bearish pressure. Now we are in the C part, where CCI also in oversold area and cross the -100 line up. Learning from past experience, from here the bullish and bearish scenario probability is 50-50. Although we are seeing some upside pressure now, my bullish mode will be reactivated at least when price able to move consistently above 50% Fibo retracement of 1.3332 – 1.2782 which is located around 1.3057. Now, let’s look at the intra-day. Immediate resistance around 1.2880 – 1.2900 area. Consistent move above that area could trigger further upside pressure testing 1.2980 – 1.3000. Initial support at 1.2782. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.2700/35 and the lower line of the bullish channel and could be a serious threat to the bullish outlook.
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Daily Technical Analysis EURUSD Outlook – 08.11.2010
Wednesday, August 11th, 2010The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.3074, closed higher at 1.3175 and now traded lower again 1.3105 at the time I wrote this comment. Overall we are still in bullish phase but if there are times when price will make potential significant downside correction, now is one of those times. Like I said, we are now in a tricky phase. The bias is neutral in nearest term but further downside pullback still potential from here testing 1.3045/00 region especially if price able to move consistently below 1.3105. Bullish may re-gain its momentum again only if able to stay consistently above 1.3250.
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Daily Technical Analysis EURUSD Outlook – 08.10.2010
Tuesday, August 10th, 2010The EURUSD failed to continue its bullish scenario yesterday after unable to re-test 1.3340 resistance level, bottomed at 1.3215 and keep moving lower around 1.3190 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.3105 area but note that we are still in bullish phase. Immediate resistance at 1.3250. Another move above that area could trigger further upside pressure testing 1.3340. We are entering the tricky phase here as we have conflicting bias between short term (bearish) and medium term (bullish). Fundamental focus will be on the FOMC statement.
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Daily Technical Analysis EURUSD Outlook – 08.09.2010
Monday, August 9th, 2010The EURUSD continued its bullish momentum on Friday after worse than expected US NFP number. On h4 chart below we have an ascending triangle that has been violated to the upside indicating potential further bullish pressure testing 1.3400/20 especially if price able to move consistently above 1.3340. On the other hand, a movement back inside the ascending triangle and below 1.3250 support area could lead us into neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.3150/60 but the major scenario remains to the upside with 1.3585 – 1.3650 as weekly target.
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Daily Technical Analysis EURUSD Outlook – 08.06.2010
Friday, August 6th, 2010The EURUSD was volatile but indecisive yesterday. The bias remains neutral in nearest term but still within a strong technical bullish context. Immediate support remains around 1.3105 area. Break below that area could trigger further downside pressure testing 1.3045/00 region. On the upside we need a consistent move above 1.3200 to continue the bullish scenario testing 1.3260 before targeting 1.3340. We will have US NFP data today. The number is expected to be a good one, forecast around -63K which is about 62K better than the previous (-125K). If the actual number is better than forecast, the pair could continue its bearish correction. On the other hand, if the actual number is worse than expected, price may resume its bullish scenario. But whatever the result, usually market will be very volatile during this data release.
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Daily Technical Analysis EURUSD Outlook – 08.05.2010
Thursday, August 5th, 2010The EURUSD was corrected lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.3131 and closed at 1.3160. Technically this is just a normal correction for me and we may see further downside pullback, but the major scenario remains strongly bullish. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate support at 1.3105. Break below that area could trigger further downside pullback testing 1.3045/00 region. Initial resistance at the minor trendline resistance (white) and around 1.3200 area. Break above that area could trigger further bullish pressure testing 1.3260 before targeting 1.3340. My fundamental focus remains on the US NFP tomorrow and like I said yesterday, price behavior could be a little bit more unpredictable so I won’t rush jump into the market.
