FOREX TRADING

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that price not only break below the trendline support but also slipped below the major bullish channel indicating a serious threat to the bullish correction scenario and technically price is now ready to resume its major bearish scenario especially if able to break below 1.2150/40 region targeting 1.2000 area. The bias is bearish in nearest term but CCI in oversold area and heading up on h4 chart indicating potential upside rebound. Another upside pullback inside the bullish channel could lead us into neutral zone in nearest term and keep the bullish correction scenario intact. Immediate resistance at 1.2250 followed by 1.2300 region.

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The currency markets are probably to look past the releases of Swiss unemployment, German industrial production and trade figures, and UK PPI to focus on the upcoming US Non Farm Payrolls report due late into European hours. Australian news was mixed the overnight session as the RBA talked up rate hike up possibilities while the construction sector shrank the most since April.

Key Overnight Developments

• Australia’s Construction Sector Shrinks Most Since April
• RBA Hints at Rate Hikes But Traders Not Convinced

• Euro, Pound Little Changed in Overnight Trading (more…)

The Euro may see selling pressure emerge in the coming session as the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index shows that inflation fell for the second consecutive month in July, stoking risks of deflation that could commit the currency bloc to a long-term period of economic stagnation.

Key Overnight Developments……. (more…)

This pattern shows two converging trendlines (support levels & resistance levels) and is (1) a bearisch formation that usually forms during a currency pair downtrend as a continuation pattern (downtrend will continue) or (2) a bullish formation that usually forms during a currency pair uptrend as a continuation pattern. (uptrend will continue)

This pattern is confirmed when the currency pair price breaks out of the symmetrical triangle formation (1) to the downside and closes below the lower support trendline in order to continue the downtrend or (2) to the upside and closes above the upper resistance trendline in order to continue the uptrend.

What does a Symmetrical Triangle Formation look like?

The symmetrical triangle is marked by two important trend lines. At its top, there is a line of resistance where traders are willing to sell the currency pair. This resistance line communicates the fact that bearish currency traders are over time willing to pay lower and lower prices for the currency pair indicating a possible break out to the downside.

At it’s bottom, the support line communicates the fact that bullish currency traders are over time willing to pay higher and higher prices for the currency pair indicating a possible break out to the upside.

How to trade this pattern?

For it’s best prediction, an established trend should exist, either a strong down or a strong uptrend. Once the currency pair breaks out the symmetrical triangle, most likely, the price will continue it’s previous trend.

Trade the breakout!

Chart example

Please note how the previous trend is an uptrend, once it breaks out the symmetrical triangle, it’s uptrend continue!

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator was developed by Marc Chaikin to create an oscillating indicator for his earlier, cumulative indicator Accumulation/Distribution. Both indicators measure the degree to which money is flowing into or out of a security or currency. Chaikin created these indicators to expand and improve on an earlier volume indicator, On Balance Volume.
On Balance Volume (OBV) compares a currency pair’s closing price with its previous day’s close and either adds or subtracts the volume to a cumulative total, if the pair is up or down respectively. Accumulation/Distribution (A/D) altered the parameters of OBV by using the mean price, the midpoint between the periods high and low, to decide whether volume for that period was being accumulated (bought) or distributed (sold). After categorizing the period either as accumulation or distribution A/D then adds or subtracts volume based on the degree to which the pair closed above or below its open. The main difference between Chaikin’s two volume indicators is that Accumulation/Distribution is a cumulative running total while Chaikin Money Flow oscillates around a zero line.

Function
Chaikin Money Flow says:
• If a currency pair closes in the upper half of its trading range on a particular day and volume is strong, the pair is being accumulated.
• If thepair closes in the lower half of its range on strong volume, the pair is being distributed.
The values of CMF can also be used to indicate buying and selling pressure:
• Values that bounce between 0.1 and -0.1 and otherwise hang around the zero line are not strong enough to offer a bullish or bearish signal.
• Values above 0.1 and below -0.1 are indicative of buying and selling pressure respectively.
• Values above 0.25 and below -0.25 are indicative of strong buying and selling.
As with other indicators, Chaikin suggested looking for a divergence between the pricing action and the oscillator.
• If a currency pair trends up while the CMF rolls over and heads down, the currency pair will very likely top out soon after.
• On the other hand, if a currency pair trends down while the CMF bottoms out and begins to move up, the pair will very likely follow.

My own experience suggests that the majority of the traders usually trades on 2 or 3 preferred Forex pairs that usually include EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY, while not many go into other major crosses with an extremely low number of traders touching something exotic like USD/BRL or NZD/CHF.

In Forex different currency pairs are interconnected and there is no real diversification possible contrary to the stock markets. Some professional traders always insist on concentrating only on one pair. But I like to find opportunities in all the pairs that are supported by my broker and have sane spreads. What currency pairs do you prefer to trade?