FOREX TRADING

Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD had a moderate bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.3325 and closed at 1.3342. The fact that price so far able to stay below 1.3350 should continue the bearish outlook towards 1.3267 area before aim for 1.3100. Another movement back above 1.3350 could lead us into no trading zone in nearest term, leaves the door open for another upside correction testing 1.3400 – 1.3450 but the main bias should remain to the downside.

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD

The EURUSD had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, break below 1.3750 key support area, bottomed and closed at 1.3723. This fact should lead us to further bearish scenario towards 1.3490 area. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 1.3580 area. Immediate resistance at 1.3750 – 1.3800 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone but I prefer a bearish scenario at this phase with sell on rallies strategy as the bearish momentum seems very strong at this phase.

On fundamental side, we will have US NFP data today, which is expected at 10K. If the actual number is at least the same or even better than expected, the Euro should keep under heavy pressure. On the other hand, a worse than expected result may give some support to the Euro but overall the Dollar should still has the advantage as risk aversion seems to increase as stocks and gold are heading lower while Greenback strengthen

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

As I had expected, the EURUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.4080 and closed at 1.4104. The combination of triangle and 1.4250 key support level breakdown produced significant power to the bearish pressure. The bias remains to the downside targeting 1.4000 psychological level. Break below that area should trigger further bearish scenario towards 1.3750 in longer term point of view. Immediate resistance at 1.4150. Break above that area should trigger further bullish correction testing 1.4250 area but I prefer a bearish scenario at this phase and stay with sell on the rallies strategy.

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

As I had expected, the EURUSD had a bearish momentum after break below 1.4450, bottomed at 1.4338 and closed at 1.4379 on Friday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but I prefer a bearish scenario at this phase targeting 1.4250 area as bullish scenario failed. Immediate resistance at 1.4400 – 1.4450 area. Only break above 1.4450 area should be seen as bearish failure and lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear.

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD still trapped in range area of 1.4450 – 1.4600 yesterday. However, earlier today in Asian session price break from that range area, slipped below 1.4450 suggesting a potential bearish scenario towards 1.4250 as bullish scenario is now in serious threat. The bias is bearish in nearest term. Another movement above 1.4450 should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear for me.

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD failed to continue it’s bearish momentum yesterday, even the Fed statement was flat, nothing significant. The way I see it, market opinion was that the economy recovery is still in the right track. The Fed also said that it will keep the rates near zero for ‘an extended period’ which make the Dollar less interesting than major currencies.

Technically, we have false breakdown on both major trendline support on daily chart and the range area on h4 chart as you can see in my daily and h4 charts below, which potentially lead to further bullish momentum. Like I said yesterday, false breakdown from the range area on h4 chart lead to further bullish momentum with 1.4950 – 1.5060 area as potential bullish target. I prefer a bullish scenario at this phase and focus now is on ECB rate decision and press conference today. With no significant surprise in economic data, it’s more likely that the ECB statement will also flat but investors, once again, might see that global recovery is also still in the right track. Unless we have significant negative tone from ECB, the Dollar should keep under pressure. Immediate support at 1.4800. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone but I still prefer bullish scenario. I think it’s better to do nothing for now until the ECB press conference. Patient, my dear fellow traders, is a virtue.

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD made another downside correction on Friday. On h1 chart below we can see that the pair attempted to push lower, slipped below 1.4688 support area (38.2% Fibo retracement of 1.4479 – 1.4817) but so far further downside pressure was limited . The bias is neutral in nearest term. Price is now moving in a bearish channel indicating that the bearish correction remains intact. Only a violation to the bearish channel should continue further bullish momentum re-testing 1.4850. Immediate support at 1.4688/50 area, which is my key support level for today and I will be watching any reaction around that area before make any decision. Consistent movement below that area could be a potential threat to the bullish outlook and challenging 1.4479 area. Although the bullish scenario also remains intact, note that rejection to move above 1.4850 could be an important technical even in longer term which potentially trigger a significant bearish reversal.

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