FOREX TRADING

Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD peaked at 1.4917 after an optimistic statement about Euro economy outlook from the ECB, but closed lower at 1.4871, formed a Doji on daily chart indicating indecisive movement. While my technical outlook remains bullish with 1.5060 and 1.5300 as potential target, I think the market is waiting for NFP and unemployment rate today, which expected to be at -175 K and 9,9%. While most economic data both in US and Euro generally show positive signals, many analysts see high rate of unemployment as a potential obstacle to the recovery progress. I have three possible scenarios regarding NFP number

• No surprise: If the actual number is the same or only have small difference with expected number, the EURUSD should continue the bullish.
• Big downside surprise: If the actual number much lower than expected, the Dollar might benefit as risk aversion might increase.
• Big upside surprise: If the actual number much higher than expected, the Dollar might suffer as risk appetite might increase.

On technical side, as you can see in my h4 chart below, after the false breakdown, price reverse higher and made a breakout and now retrace lower, struggling around the upper line of my range area. The way I see it, it’s just a normal downside pullback before continue further bullish momentum. Immediate support remains around 1.4800 area. Break below that area should lead to no trading zone as direction would become unclear for me. CCI just cross the 100 line down on h4 chart suggesting potential downside pressure but any bearish movement should be seen as correction at this phase.

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD failed to continue it’s bearish momentum yesterday, even the Fed statement was flat, nothing significant. The way I see it, market opinion was that the economy recovery is still in the right track. The Fed also said that it will keep the rates near zero for ‘an extended period’ which make the Dollar less interesting than major currencies.

Technically, we have false breakdown on both major trendline support on daily chart and the range area on h4 chart as you can see in my daily and h4 charts below, which potentially lead to further bullish momentum. Like I said yesterday, false breakdown from the range area on h4 chart lead to further bullish momentum with 1.4950 – 1.5060 area as potential bullish target. I prefer a bullish scenario at this phase and focus now is on ECB rate decision and press conference today. With no significant surprise in economic data, it’s more likely that the ECB statement will also flat but investors, once again, might see that global recovery is also still in the right track. Unless we have significant negative tone from ECB, the Dollar should keep under pressure. Immediate support at 1.4800. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone but I still prefer bullish scenario. I think it’s better to do nothing for now until the ECB press conference. Patient, my dear fellow traders, is a virtue.

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

We have a significant technical event yesterday. As you can see in my daily chart below, the trendline support has been violated to the downside, bottomed at 1.4625. This fact should trigger further weakness for the Euro with 1.4450 as technical target, but we need to be very careful here since the pair closed much higher at 1.4716 indicating limited bearish. Every time a trendline support is broken, oftenly price retreat to the upside and testing the trendline area, which is now become a resistance. So, as long as the pair stay below the trendline, expect further bearish scenario.

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD continued it’s indecisive movement yesterday. On my daily chart below we can see that the pair still struggling around the trendline support area. Basically, the trendline support remains my key technical focus at this phase and a strong support area to prevent further downside pressure which keep the bullish scenario intact. I think I will keep out from the market until I have a clear and convincing movement, below or above the trendline. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.4850. Break above that area could make this pair vulnerable for further upside pressure re-testing 1.4950 – 1.5060 area. Initial support at 1.4700 – 1.4680 area. Break below that area should trigger further weakness for the Euro.

On fundamental side, we will have some key economic numbers this week as US (tomorrow) and Europe (Thursday) are going to announce interest rate and US NFP on Friday. I am expecting these fundamental events to be the market movers to take us out from this choppy market. I feel this week is going to be a very important week as what happen here might have a bigger impact on longer term outlook, whether we will continue the bullish scenario towards 1.5300 or back towards 1.4450 area.

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD failed to continue it’s bullish momentum on Friday and now re-testing the trendline support, as you can see in my daily chart below. I see this fact simply as a battle between buyers and sellers around a critical technical point. What is going to happen today, might be very important for the weekly outlook beside US NFP on Friday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as the pair stay above the trendline, the bullish scenario re-testing 1.5062 area before aim for 1.5300 still intact. However, if we have a break below the trendline, we should have a bearish view for this week, with technical target around 1.4450 area. How I react to what happen in the market is one of the key elements in my trading system, and I will be watching and react to what happen to this trendline support.

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The trendline support on daily chart I showed you yesterday proved to be an important support at this phase as bearish pressure failed to push lower and EURUSD started to regain it’s bullish momentum, topped at 1.4858 and closed at 1.4839. This fact should be seen as potential end to the bearish correction and price seems to ready re-testing 1.5000 once again. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 1.4950 – 1.5000 area but we need a consistent movement above 1.4850 to confirm the bullish scenario. Immediate support at 1.4760 area. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone as price might retesting the trendline support one more time. Overall, as long as the pair able to stay above the trendline, I prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

As I had expected, the EURUSD continued it’s bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.4690 and closed at 1.4715. As you can see in my daily chart below, we area in critical technical phase where price is now testing the major trendline support. This trendline support could be a strong support area since overall in longer term the bullish outlook remains intact, but once violated to the downside, we should have further bearish scenario. So I think what is going to happen on that trendline support today and the rest of this week should be our technical focus at this phase.

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD had a significant technical bearish movement yesterday, break below my key support level 1.4850, bottomed at 1.4769 and closed at 1.4805. This fact should open the door for further bearish momentum towards 1.4670 area. The bias remains bearish in nearest term. 1.4850 area now become immediate resistance. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.4920/50 area but I prefer a bearish scenario at this phase. From a longer term point of view, the failure to keep moving above 1.5000 area and the fact that now traded below 1.4850 could create a downside reversal scenario at least toward 1.4450/80 area.

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.4844 and closed at 1.4863. The CCI bearish divergence I showed you on Saturday give us a valid signal about bullish exhaustion and bearish momentum. On h4 chart below we can see that price violated the bullish channel to the downside indicating potential bearish view.

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD bullish momentum was paused on Friday. This may caused by a profit-taking activity on the weekend but some people, including me, start to worry about potential downside correction or even a bearish reversal. Like I said in my weekly summary on Saturday, beside the pair can not really move above 1.5000 area consistently, we also have a CCI bearish divergence on daily chart which potentially trigger bearish momentum.

However, technically the bullish scenario is still intact. As long as the bullish channel on my h4 chart below still valid, the bullish scenario should remains strong. We seem to have a downside pressure as price now testing the lower line of the bullish channel which has been a good support so far. Although not automatically set up a bearish reversal scenario since false breakout/down do happen, a violation to the downside of the bullish channel could be a serious threat to my bullish outlook testing 1.4920 even key support level 1.4850 area. Immediate resistance at 1.5050. Break above that area should trigger further bullish continuation targeting 1.5140 and 1.5300 area.

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday but found support at 1.4943, whipsawed to the upside, topped at 1.5037 and closed at 1.5025, indicating bullish momentum remains strong and downside corrections might be over at this phase. I dont’ trade corrections, but I love them

My bullish channel on h4 chart below has been a very useful technical tool for me as bullish momentum still move perfectly inside the bullish channel with the lower line provide good technical support area. The bias remains bullish in nearest term still targeting 1.5080 and 1.5140. Key support level remains at 1.4950/60 area and the lower line of the bullish channel. Short position is not recommended.

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD continued it’s bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.5045 and closed at 1.5007. The bullish power succeed to pass the test and move above critical area 1.4850 – 1.4950. I think we are now entering a new phase of a bullish scenario with 1.6000 area as potential long term technical target. A look at my daily chart below reveals my reason. On February 2008, after prevented further upside momentum by being a strong resistance area for a few months, 1.4950 level became a starting point of a new bullish phase which peaked at 1.6000 area on April 2008 once it broken to the upside.

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD made another correction yesterday. The pair attempted to push higher, topped at 1.4993 but whipsawed to the downside, bottomed at 1.4881 and closed at 1.4936. On h4 chart below we can see that this was a case of a false breakout, which potentially produce significant downside correction. 1.4850 area and the lower line of the bullish channel are my important support area. As long as the pair stay above that area the bullish scenario should remains strong. Any movement below 1.4850/30 could trigger further significant bearish correction towards 1.4760/20 area and could be a potential threat to my bullish outlook. Technically I don’t have any good sign of a bearish reversal so far, so short position still not recommended. The bias is neutral in nearest term and we might have another downside correction and but overall I still prefer a bullish scenario with 1.5300 as potential target. I think we are in transition phase with 1.4850 – 1.4950/1.5000 area as critical area, so volatility and hesitation in the market are actually normal.

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD made a significant technical movement early today in Asian session, break below my key support level 1.4850. Technically, this fact open a way for a further bearish correction at least re-testing 1.4720 in nearest term, but correction is just a correction and short position is not recommended at this phase. On the upside, 1.4950 remains a good resistance but a valid break above that area should trigger further bullish continuation targeting at least 1.5080 area before aim for 1.5300. I still prefer a bullish scenario.

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD continue it’s bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.4946 and closed at 1.4933. On my daily chart below we can easily see that 1.4950 area is a very important resistance level, my final technical resistance to be tested before aim for 1.5300 even 1.6000 area.

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