EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD still trapped in range area of 1.4450 – 1.4250 yesterday. I think the best strategy remains to short around 1.4450 or to long around 1.4250 with tight stop loss. Bullish scenario will be confirmed by a close above 1.4450 today targeting 1.4600 – 1.4800 this week while bearish confirmation will be confirmed by a close below 1.4250 targeting 1.4127 – 1.4000 area this week.

GBPUSD Outlook

The GBPUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.6239 but further upside momentum was rejected as price closed significantly lower at 1.6088. On h4 chart below we can see that price is trapped in range area of 1.6250 – 1.6040 indicating consolidation. We need a break from that range area to see clearer direction. I prefer a bearish scenario but I will let the market decide then just react accordingly. Break above 1.6250 should trigger further bullish momentum towards 1.6450 while break below 1.6040 should trigger further bearish momentum towards 1.5920 – 1.5832.

USDJPY Outlook

The USDJPY was corrected lower yesterday, bottomed at 92.18 and closed at 92.50. I think this is a normal correction and I still prefer a bullish scenario with technical target remains around 94.00/50 area. Only a movement below 91.90 area or violation to the bullish channel can be seen as serious threat to my bullish outlook and trigger further bearish momentum.

USDCHF Outlook

The USDCHF didn’t make significant movement yesterday. Price unable to consistently move above the bearish channel to continue bullish scenario. On the other hand, support area at 38.2% Fibo retracement around 1.0280 area still did a good job preventing further bearish pressure. I still prefer a bullish scenario as I still consider the bearish movement as correction. So I think 1.0280 area is a good place to long but with only tight stop loss below it targeting 1.0400 – 1.0450 area. Consistent move below 1.0280 area should be seen as a serious threat to the bullish outlook.

EURJPY Outlook

The EURJPY made indecisive movement yesterday, formed a Doji on daily chart indicating consolidation. Price attempted to push lower, but the lower line of the bullish channel did a good job preventing further bearish attack, keep the bullish scenario intact with technical target remains around 134.50 area. Immediate support at 132.80 area. Break below that area a violation to the bullish channel should be seen as potential bullish failure and could trigger significant bearish momentum testing 132.15 support area.

GBPJPY Outlook

The GBPJPY was corrected lower yesterday, bottomed at 148.64 and closed at 148.81. This fact should lead us into no trading zone but the nearest bias is bearish targeting 147.15 area. On h4 chart below we have a rising wedge formation, which is a bearish pattern especially if price break below the lower line of the rising wedge. Immediate resistance at 149.30 area. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum testing the upper line of the rising wedge. Break above the upper line of the rising wedge should be seen as bearish scenario failure thus trigger further bullish scenario towards 153.22 area

AUDUSD Outlook

The AUDUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that price is now moving inside the bullish channel indicating bullish view remains intact. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 0.9230. However CCI in overbought area and heading down on h4 chart suggesting potential downside pressure testing 0.9075 support area. I will be watching any reaction around that area before make any decision today. Break below 0.9075 area could trigger further bearish momentum re-testing the lower line of the bullish channel once again.

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The information has been prepared for information purposes only. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. This information contained herein is derived from sources we believe to be reliable, but of which we have not independently verified. FXInstructor LLC assumes no responsibilities for errors, inaccuracies or omissions in these materials, nor shall it be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. FXInstructor LLC does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these materials. FXInstructor LLC shall not be liable for any indirect, incidental, or consequential damages including without limitation losses, lost revenues or lost profits that may result from these materials. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results

USD/JPY closed slightly lower due to short covering on Monday as it consolidates some of this month’s rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If its renews the rally off November’s low, October’s high crossing is the next upside target.

GBP/USD closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidated some of this month’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If its extends this month’s decline, October’s low crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

USD/CHF closed lower due to long covering on Monday as it extends last week’s decline below the 10-day moving average crossing. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a long-term high has been posted. If its renews this month’s rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009-decline crossing is the next upside target.

HY Markets
http://www.hymarkets.com

USD/JPY

Chart Levels:

Support 88.00..87.35..86.00..84.82.
Resistance 89.80..90.80..91.35..92.33.

This week: →
This month: ↘

The sharp rally from a multi-year low at 84.82 has turned into ‘triangle’ consolidation. The US dollar is no longer oversold and most elements of this chart still suggest a short USD/JPY position. Long term while below 92.00 downside pressure is maintained, while the closer we get to 85.00 the more the authorities will be tempted to intervene. In fact the early December high at 90.78 might in fact be a new lower interim high. Decent futures volume over the last two weeks suggests many are cutting out of stale positions ahead of expiry and year-end. These will have to be re-built next year.

EUR/USD

Chart Levels:

Support 1.4585..1.4445..1.4280..1.4180.
Resistance 1.4770..1.4845..1.4900..1.5145.

This week: →
This month: ↗

Over the last two weeks the Euro’s drop has been bigger than most this year, admittedly against a background of fairly contained FX moves. It is undoubtedly corrective, here and in a whole raft of other major currencies. Therefore we shall be looking for the daily Ichimoku ‘cloud’, combined with medium term Fibonacci retracement support, to help form an interim base over the next fortnight, here and in the others too, as this is a USD move. Note that all elements on this weekly chart point to a core long Euro position. Futures volume over the last few weeks has been close to record highs, suggesting many are throwing in the towel before delivery and year-end. As with the yen, they will need rebuilding next year.

GBP/USD

Chart Levels:

Support 1.6200..1.6100..1.5900..1.5700.
Resistance 1.6400..1.6600..1.6800..1.7044.

This week: →
This month: ↗

An eighth consecutive week consolidating just under the top of a very large Ichimoku ‘cloud’, but note that moving averages have crossed to a short position. Excellent futures volume last week suggests many are squaring up. Hopefully before the end of this year a weekly close above the top of the ‘cloud’ might add some much-needed bullish momentum, while a break above this year’s high at 1.7044 is needed to set off the next big rally, forcing many into short-covering and reviewing their outlook. As we expect Sterling to do better than many other currencies next year, albeit slowly, Cable should lead the way to generalised USD weakness.

EUR/GBP

Chart Levels:

Support 0.8980..0.8895..0.8833..0.8750.
Resistance 0.9070..0.9125..0.9155..0.9240.

This week: ↘
This month: ↘

Slow work but Fibonacci resistance and the top of a large daily Ichimoku ‘cloud’ nudged Euro/Sterling marginally lower as all and sundry write off UK plc. One worry is that the ‘cloud’ thins dramatically at Christmas; another surprise is that momentum remains stubbornly bullish. These conflicting signals bring with them the possibility that prices might move broadly sideways, in a yet to be determined band, for many more months and while above the pivotal 0.8400 the risk of sudden sterling weakness against the Euro remains. Despite this we feel that the intermediate trend, over the next couple of months, is for this pair to drift down towards 0.8500 again, probably with much sideways consolidation at the 0.8750 level.

EUR/JPY

Chart Levels:

Support 128.75..126.95..125.65..124.35.
Resistance 130.65..131.00..132.00..134.55

This week: ↘
This month: ↘

Back down to the lower edge of the broad band that has held for most of this year and which now coincides with the lower edge of the huge weekly Ichimoku ‘cloud’. The Euro is not oversold against the yen and momentum is steadily bearish, while weekly moving averages still suggest a short position. Hopefully we will get the decisive weekly break now in super-thin year-end markets. We expect a similar effect with all other Yen crosses with these dragging each other lower. Probably in Q1 2010 this cross will re-test key support just under 115.00, and then move sideways.

GBP/JPY

Chart Levels:

Support 143.00..142.00..140.00..139.25.
Resistance 145.65..146.50..149.00..151.60.

This week: ↘
This month: ↘

Retreating from the top of the ‘triangle’ formation so that prices are now trading just under the lower edge of a massive weekly Ichimoku ‘cloud’. Weekly moving averages still point to holding shorts and hopefully the neat series of descending weekly highs will be maintained so that we drop below 38% Fibonacci support very late this week or later this month. Sterling is not oversold against the yen though momentum is only just bearish. A monthly close below 140.00 would probably cause a sudden slide to the 130.00 area. Being the yen cross closest to the record low 118.80 of January 2009, GBP/JPY may have less downside scope than others.

Mizuho Corporate Bank

Disclaimer

The information contained in this paper is based on or derived from information generally available to the public from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty is made or implied that it is accurate or complete. Any opinions expressed in this paper are subject to change without notice. This paper has been prepared solely for information purposes and if so decided, for private circulation and does not constitute any solicitation to buy or sell any instrument, or to engage in any trading strategy.

EURUSD

The pause in Euro rally triggered by Dubai World debts payment delay so far expected to be temporary as after hit bottom at 1.4827, Euro recovered quickly, closed much higher at 1.4985 on Friday and the trendline support still did a good job prevented further bearish attack thus technically keep the bullish scenario intact, especially if price able to move consistently above 1.5062 today, which is technically potential to be tested after rebound from 1.4827. However, note that the false breakout from 1.5062 area (see my daily chart below) also hide a potential bearish view and price could make another downside attempt testing the trendline support and 1.4827 once again, especially if price break below 1.4920/00 area today. No one knows whether the impact of Dubai World is only a temporary panic reaction last week or will continue to shake world stocks market thus could bring the Dollar higher this week. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.5062. Valid break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum towards 1.5140/50 area

GBPUSD

The GBPUSD had a volatile market but indecisive on Friday. Price attempted to push lower, bottomed at 1.6269 but further bearish momentum was rejected as price whipsawed strongly to the upside, hit the top at 1.6510 and close at 1.6494. On h4 chart below we can see that after break below trendline support (blue, now resistance), price retreat to the upside testing the trendline, which is often happen technically. Although the quick and strong bullish rebound from 1.6269 on Friday is surely a serious threat to the bearish scenario, note that my trendline resistance (red) still valid indicating that bearish scenario in longer term remains intact. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.6600 – 1.6670 area. Violation the the trendline resistance (red) should be seen as bearish failure and potential bullish outlook in longer term. Initial support at 1.6430/00 area. Break below that area should continue bearish pressure re-testing 1.6269 area.

USDJPY

The USDJPY attempted to push lower on Friday, bottomed at 84.79 but further bearish momentum was rejected as price whipsawed to the upside, hit the top at 87.00 and closed at 86.46. Beside the hammer candlestick pattern which proved to be a good signal of bullish rebound, the Japanese government threat to jump into the market to weaken the Yen seems effective so far. The bias is bullish targeting 87.50 in nearest term as I am expecting market continue to respond further to the intervention threat thus potentially bring the pair higher. Immediate support at 86.30. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum but I will not place a short position under the intervention threat although technically I still prefer a bearish scenario in longer term.

USDCHF

The USDCHF attempted to rebound higher on Friday, topped at 1.0174 but further bullish correction was rejected as price failed to consistently move above 1.0120 and now back below the trendline (aqua) indicating potential bearish view. The bias is bearish in nearest term with technical target around 0.9913 area. Immediate resistance at 1.0120 area. Break above that area should lead us once again into no trading zone as direction would become unclear for me.

AUDUSD

The hammer candlestick pattern gave us a good signal of bullish correction on Friday as the pair closed higher at 0.9059 after bottomed at 0.8916 and continue to push higher earlier today in Asian session, traded around 0.9155 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 0.9250 even 0.9327 in longer term but we need a consistent move above 0.9180 key resistance area to continue further bullish momentum. Immediate support at 0.9090. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum re-testing 0.9030 even 0.8916 area.

GBPJPY

The market responded to the intervention threat by the Japanese government and brought the pair higher, topped at 143.47 and closed at 142.66 after bottomed at 139.27 on Friday. Technically, the hammer candlestick pattern, as you can see on h4 chart below suggest potential upside correction testing 144.60 in nearest term. Break above 144.60 could be a serious threat to the bearish outlook and potentially begin the bullish outlook in longer term at least testing 148.50 area. Immediate support at 142.50. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum but I won’t place a short position under an intervention threat.

EURJPY

The hammer candlestick pattern gave us a valid bullish correction signal on Friday as market responded to the intervention threat by the Japanese government to weaken the Yen. Price whipsawed to the upside significantly, topped at 130.13 and closed at 129.55 after attempted to push lower and hit bottom at 126.86. I am expecting further bullish momentum testing 131.75 and the trendline resistance area (red, see h4 chart below) as market may continue respond further to the intervention threat thus potentially bring the pair higher. Immediate support at 129.50/00 area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum technically but I won’t place a short position under an intervention threat.

FX Instructor LLC
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The information has been prepared for information purposes only. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. This information contained herein is derived from sources we believe to be reliable, but of which we have not independently verified. FXInstructor LLC assumes no responsibilities for errors, inaccuracies or omissions in these materials, nor shall it be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. FXInstructor LLC does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these materials. FXInstructor LLC shall not be liable for any indirect, incidental, or consequential damages including without limitation losses, lost revenues or lost profits that may result from these materials. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results

EURUSD

Yesterday I said that EURUSD need a consistent move above 1.5150 resistance area to continue bullish towards 1.5300. The fact was, price never got higher than 1.5150 and bullish momentum was rejected. I was right at this point until price unexpectedly made further bearish momentum, fell below 1.5062, bottomed at 1.4959 and closed at 1.5006. I have to admit and realize that my technical study was completely a mess. After broke above 1.5062 and topped at 1.5143 on Wednesday, I thought a movement towards 1.5300 should not be that hard. Well, my 1.5150 bullish target area was easily hit, but my second bullish target around 1.5300 was not. Technically the bias reverse to bearish, especially in nearest term with 1.4920 support area to be tested. Break below that support level should trigger further bearish momentum towards 1.4850/20 area, but as long as the bullish trendline support hold (see h4 chart below), the bullish scenario in longer term remains intact, especially if price able to break above 1.5062 today, testing 1.5150 area once again. Note that bearish reversal scenario warning is now can not be ignored especially if we have further bearish below 1.4820 with 1.4625 and 1.4450 as technical target. I think I will stand aside for now as situation is very tricky, but probably consider about open long position if price move near trendline support area or 1.4850/20 area today with tight stop loss.

On fundamental point of view, the risk aversion came back into play yesterday. Bloomberg reported that Dubai World proposal to delay debts payment shook investor’s confidence. Stocks in Asia, US and Europe dropped significantly while Yen and Dollar benefited from this situation. Well, I think it’s the time that we should not be too optimistic about global economic recovery. It’s true that we have some significant improvement and have good reasons to be optimistic, but things are just still far from being stable and investor’s panic selling on Dubai World debts payment delay prove that. The Japanese Yen is the most currency appreciated in this situation, lead ‘safe heaven’ currencies strengthen. However, I am concern about possible intervention by Japanese government to weaken the Yen as traders may respond to it thus potentially wane the Yen and Dollar rally.

GBPUSD

CCI warning about potential downside pullback was proved to be a fact yesterday. However, I must admit that the bearish pullback was much stronger than I had expected. Price fell significantly, break below 1.6600, bottomed at 1.6466 and closed at 1.6497. On h4 chart below, the trendline support (red) which did a good job prevented further bearish pressure and brought price peaked at 1.6744 on Wednesday was broken yesterday indicating potential technical bearish targeting 1.6250 area. The bias is bearish in nearest term at least targeting 1.6330 area but direction is unclear for me in longer term. The situation can be very tricky so do not rush jumping into the market. Immediate resistance at 1.6550 area. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum.

USDJPY

As I had expected, the USDJPY continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 86.28 and closed at 86.39. Earlier today in Asian session, the pair attempted to push lower, bottomed at 84.79 but concern about Japanese government intervention brought the pair higher around 85.95 at the time I wrote this comment. On my h4 chart below, we have a hammer candlestick formation which potentially lead to bullish reversal, or at least correction as traders may respond further to possible intervention by Japanese government to bring the Yen weaker. I think I will stand aside for now.

USDCHF

The USDCHF failed to stay below 1.0000 area yesterday, topped at 1.0068 and closed at 1.0031. On h4 chart below we can see that price retreat to the upside and now above my trendline resistance (aqua, now support). This fact lead me to no trading zone area and we better stay away from the market for now. Another movement below the trendline should trigger further bearish pressure re-testing 1.0000 while consistent move above that trendline should trigger further bullish correction towards 1.0207 area.

AUDUSD

My technical study was completely a mess yesterday. As you can see on my h4 chart below, price fell significantly, violated my bullish channel, bottomed at 0.9092 and closed at 0.9122. Earlier today in Asian market price attempted to push lower, bottomed at 0.8916 but further bearish pressure was rejected so far as price whipsawed higher around 0.9035 at the time I wrote this comment. We have a hammer candlestick formation on h4 chart suggesting potential upside correction testing 0.9123 (today’s high), but I prefer to stand aside for now. We seems to have some chaos and panic on fundamental side as stock market dropped on Dubai World proposal to delay debts payment shook investor’s confidence. It’s a perfect time to watch and learn, but a bad time to enter the market

GBPJPY

The GBPJPY continued its bearish momentum yesterday, hit my short target at 146.40, even much further, bottomed at 142.45 and closed at 142.54. Earlier today in Asian session, the pair attempted to push lower, bottomed at 139.27 but concern about possible intervention by Japanese government brought the pair higher around 141.11 at the time I wrote this comment. While technical outlook remains slightly bearish, we need to be careful as intervention is not a thing we want to ignore. I will stay away from the market and wait for further development

EURJPY

As I had expected, the EURJPY break below 131.75, bottomed at 129.51 and closed at 129.56. The pair attempt to push lower earlier today in Asian session, bottomed at 126.86 but concern about possible intervention by Japanese government to weaken the Yen brought the pair higher around 128.62 at the time I wrote this comment. Well, I don’t know whether the market will respond further to the intervention threat, but technically we have a hammer pattern indicating that bullish correction is potential. I prefer to stand aside for now. Immediate resistance at 130.20 area. Break above that area should trigger further bullish correction.

FX Instructor LLC
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The information has been prepared for information purposes only. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. This information contained herein is derived from sources we believe to be reliable, but of which we have not independently verified. FXInstructor LLC assumes no responsibilities for errors, inaccuracies or omissions in these materials, nor shall it be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. FXInstructor LLC does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these materials. FXInstructor LLC shall not be liable for any indirect, incidental, or consequential damages including without limitation losses, lost revenues or lost profits that may result from these materials. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results

EURUSD Outlook

Finally, we have significant technical break on EURUSD. As you can see on my daily chart below, price break above the peak at 1.5062, topped at 1.5143 and closed at 1.5136. If you remember my technical study on November 12, I said about two double top scenarios: valid or failure scenario. When a chart formation fails, I believe the opposite scenario is in play. If the bearish reversal scenario fails, the bullish continuation is in play. So, whether a chart formation fails or valid, I always have a clue. Isn’t that great? I am in buy mode now, targeting 1.5300 area. We have an important resistance around 1.5150 area and need consistent move above that area before aim for 1.5300. Immediate support at 1.5090 followed by 1.5062. As long as price able to stay above 1.5062, the bullish scenario should remains intact. CCI in overbought area and heading down on h4 chart, so watch out for potential minor downside pullback.

GBPUSD Outlook

The GBPUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, break above my key resistance 1.6692, topped at 1.6744 and closed at 1.6698. This fact should be seen as bearish scenario failure and potential bullish scenario targeting 1.6842 area. CCI in overbought area and heading down on h4 chart so watch out for potential minor downside pullback testing immediate support at 1.6670 area. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone testing 1.6600 area and direction would become unclear for me.

USDJPY Outlook

As I had expected, the USDJPY continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 87.20 and closed at 87.32. On h4 chart below we can see how a breakdown below range area at 88.80 gave us a good bearish signal. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 86.10 area. However CCI in oversold area and heading up on h4 chart so watch out for potential minor upside pullback testing 87.50 resistance area. Break above that area should trigger further upside correction testing 88.00 area, but long position is not recommended at this phase.

USDCHF Outlook

The USDCHF had significant bearish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that after break below my trendline support, price had a nice bearish momentum, fell below psychological area 1.0000, bottomed at 0.9954 and closed at 0.9963. I think we are in a new phase of a bearish scenario. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 0.9890 area. CCI in oversold area and heading up on h4 chart so watch out for potential minor upside correction testing 1.0000 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone but I prefer a bearish scenario at this phase.

EURJPY Outlook

The EURJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, slipped below my short target at 131.75, bottomed at 131.49 but closed higher at 132.19. The bias is neutral in nearest term as I am anticipating range area of 132.83 – 131.75 today. Break on either side should give us clearer direction towards 130.65 or 133.60 area. I prefer a bearish scenario and expecting breakdown below 131.75. However, note that false breakdown below 131.75 yesterday could produced upside momentum, so do not rush jump into the market.

GBPJPY Outlook

The GBPJPY continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 145.62 and closed at 145.83. The bias remains bearish with 144.60 as potential technical bearish target. However CCI in oversold area and heading up on h4 chart so watch out for potential upside pullback testing 146.40 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone and price might retreat towards 147.66 area but as long as price stay below 148.50, I prefer a bearish scenario.

AUDUSD Outlook

As I had expected, the AUDUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 0.9321 and closed at 0.9317. We had some bearish pullback earlier today in Asian market, but that is normal for me, even good, give me opportunity to find lower price to buy. As long as price move in the bullish channel area, the bias should remains bullish. Technically we have important resistance around 0.9327 area. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum targeting 0.9404 area.

FX Instructor LLC
www.fxinstructor.com

The information has been prepared for information purposes only. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. This information contained herein is derived from sources we believe to be reliable, but of which we have not independently verified. FXInstructor LLC assumes no responsibilities for errors, inaccuracies or omissions in these materials, nor shall it be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. FXInstructor LLC does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these materials. FXInstructor LLC shall not be liable for any indirect, incidental, or consequential damages including without limitation losses, lost revenues or lost profits that may result from these materials. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD made another rejection to consistently move below 1.4820 key support level on Friday. This fact surely keep the major bullish scenario intact, but the bearish reversal scenario warning showed by double top pattern with peaks around 1.5062 area is also still valid and the bias should remains neutral as market is consolidating now. Overall, this pair has been indecisive in the last two weeks and we need a significant movement above 1.5062 to continue the bullish continuation towards 1.5150 and 1.5300 or consistent move below 1.4820/00 area to confirm further bearish pressure towards 1.4625 and 1.4450 area. Immediate resistance at 1.4965 and the upper line of my bearish channel, which vulnerable to be tested today after rejection below 1.4820. A violation to the bearish channel should be seen as potential threat to the bearish reversal scenario re-testing 1.5062 area.

On fundamental side, we will have many news from Euro zone today (manufacturing and services PMI) and Trichet is going to make another statement which potentially move the market significantly, especially if we have big surprise whether in the numbers or Trichet’s comment. We know the he support a strong Dollar, but the market respond has been mixed so far.

GBPUSD Outlook

The GBPUSD made another bearish momentum on Friday, bottomed at 1.6459 and closed at 1.6501. My bearish scenario is now confirmed with 1.6400 and 1.6250 as technical target. However we have some upside rebound earlier today in Asian session and CCI in oversold area and about to cross the -100 line up so watch out for potential upside rebound testing 1.6600. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone as bullish correction could continue testing 1.6692 area. Immediate support at 1.6459 (Friday’s low) Break below that area should trigger further bearish continuation momentum.

USDJPY Outlook

The USDJPY still trapped in range area of 89.40 – 88.80/60 area on Friday indicating consolidation. The bias remains neutral and my strategy remains the same, which is to buy around 88.80/70 area or to sell around 89.40 with a tight stop loss. Break on either side should give us clearer direction towards 90.50 or 88.00 area. CCI in neutral area in both h1 and h4 chart.

USDCHF Outlook

The USDCHF still trapped in range area of 1.0120 – 1.0207 on Friday. As you can see in my h4 chart below, price made a bearish momentum after false breakout above 1.0207 area. This fact should keep the bias remains neutral but the false breakout could lead to further downside pressure testing 1.0120 support area. We need a valid break below 1.0120 or above 1.0207 to see clearer direction towards 1.0000/33 or 1.0337 area.

EURJPY Outlook

The EURJPY had a moderate bearish momentum on Friday, bottomed at 131.78 and closed at 132.03 but we had some upside rebound earlier today in Asian session as the pair traded higher around 132.50 at the time I wrote this comment. The bearish scenario should remains intact and at least we have two trendline resistance (blue and red) that provide good resistance area to keep my bearish scenario intact. The bias is neutral in nearest term and the pair is now testing the blue trendline resistance. Break above that trendline should continue further upside correction testing the red trendline resistance. As long as the red trendline resistance hold, I still prefer a bearish scenario with technical target at least around 131.01 area. Immediate resistance at 132.60/80. Break above that area should trigger further upside momentum towards 133.20 area. Initial support at 131.50. Break below that area should continue bearish momentum testing 131.01 area before aim for 129.00.

GBPJPY Outlook

As I had expected, the GBPJPY made another bearish momentum on Friday, bottomed at 146.43 and closed at 146.60. We had some upside correction earlier today in Asian session, which is normal after two days of significant bearish momentum. Immediate resistance at 147.30/50 area. Break above that area should trigger further upside correction testing 148.50. As long as the pair stay below 148.50 I still prefer a bearish scenario with technical target around 144.50 area. Immediate support at 145.80/90. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum

AUDUSD Outlook

The AUDUSD attempted to push lower on Friday, hit my short target at 0.9090, bottomed at 0.9059 but closed higher at 0.9143 and now keep rebounding higher around 0.9176 at the time I wrote this comment. On h4 chart below we have a bearish channel indicating bearish scenario and the pair can not consistently stay above 0.9180 so far. The bias is neutral in nearest term and as long as the bearish channel valid, bearish scenario targeting 0.9030 even 0.8915 should remains intact. Only violation to the bearish channel should be seen as bearish scenario failure re-testing 0.9327 area again. Immediate support at 0.9059 (Friday’s low). Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum

FX Instructor LLC
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The information has been prepared for information purposes only. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. This information contained herein is derived from sources we believe to be reliable, but of which we have not independently verified. FXInstructor LLC assumes no responsibilities for errors, inaccuracies or omissions in these materials, nor shall it be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. FXInstructor LLC does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these materials. FXInstructor LLC shall not be liable for any indirect, incidental, or consequential damages including without limitation losses, lost revenues or lost profits that may result from these materials. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.4842 but bearish pressure was limited as the pair closed higher at 1.4915. The bias is neutral in nearest term. My technical focus remains at the bearish channel, which is still valid indicating bearish correction remains intact with the upper line of the bearish channel as key resistance area. As you can see in my daily chart below, the upper line has been doing a good job to keep the bearish correction intact since the rejection to move above 1.5062 area (peaks). Immediate resistance at 1.4965 area. Break above that area could be a serious threat to the bearish correction scenario re-testing 1.5062 area. Initial support at remains at the key support level around 1.4850/20 area.

GBPUSD Outlook

The GBPUSD continued its bearish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that the pair had a nice bearish momentum after break below the bullish channel and 1.6692 area. The bias is neutral in nearest term. CCI in oversold area and about to cross the -100 line up on h4 chart so we might see some upside rebound today testing 1.6692 resistance area. Break above that area could trigger further upside pressure testing the lower line of the bullish channel. I prefer a bearish scenario at this phase and only a move back into the bullish channel could be considered as bearish failure and trigger further bullish momentum towards 1.6842. Immediate support at 1.6605/00 area. Break below that area should continue bearish momentum targeting 1.6515 area.

USDJPY Outlook

The USDJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, slipped below 88.80 support area, bottomed at 88.63 but further bearish pressure was rejected as the pair closed higher at 88.93. On h4 chart below we can see that the pair has been trapped in 89.40 – 88.80/60 area this week indicating consolidation, moving no more that 100 pips so far. Both bullish and bearish power made false breakout and breakdown from the range area with no clear strong movement so far. I think the best strategy in this situation is to short around 89.40/50 or to buy around 88.80/70 area with tight stop loss.

USDCHF Outlook

After breakout above 1.0120 resistance area, the pair push higher, topped at 1.0194 but but further bullish correction was rejected as price closed lower at 1.0134. The fact that price still able to stay above 1.0120 for me indicate that the bullish correction scenario should remains intact even we have not see a real bullish momentum so far indicating consolidation. Expected range for today is 1.0120 – 1.0207. Break on either side should give us clearer direction towards 1.0337 or 1.0000/33 area.

EURJPY Outlook

The EURJPY failed to consistently move above the trendline resistance (blue) yesterday, produced a false breakout and triggered significant bearish momentum and now traded below the trendline support (red, now resistance). The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 131.56 area. Immediate resistance at 133.20 and trendline resistance (red) area. Break above that area should be seen as bearish failure and lead us back into no trading zone as direction would become unclear for me and my technical study would be a mess.

GBPJPY Outlook

My technical study worked perfectly yesterday and we saw how a trendline break can be very effective. The pair continued its bearish momentum, hit my short target at 148.24 even lower, bottomed at 147.30 and closed at 148.06. The bias is neutral in nearest term but I prefer a bearish scenario. CCI in oversold area and heading up on h4 chart so any upside rebound today won’t be a surprise for me. Immediate resistance at 148.50 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone in nearest as price might rebound higher and direction would be unclear for me. Initial support at 147.50/30 area. Break below that area should lead to further bearish momentum targeting 146.36 area

AUDUSD Outlook

The AUDUSD had a significant bearish momentum yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that after break below my minor trendline support, price had a nice bearish momentum, bottomed at 0.9131 and closed at 0.9190. The bias is bearish in nearest term targeting 0.9090. The bullish scenario now not only in serious threat, but it seems like a bearish reversal scenario back towards 0.8915 is open wide. Immediate resistance at 0.9220 area. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone.

FX Instructor LLC
www.fxinstructor.com

The information has been prepared for information purposes only. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. This information contained herein is derived from sources we believe to be reliable, but of which we have not independently verified. FXInstructor LLC assumes no responsibilities for errors, inaccuracies or omissions in these materials, nor shall it be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. FXInstructor LLC does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these materials. FXInstructor LLC shall not be liable for any indirect, incidental, or consequential damages including without limitation losses, lost revenues or lost profits that may result from these materials. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results