FOREX TRADING

Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD still trapped in range area of 1.4450 – 1.4250 yesterday. I think the best strategy remains to short around 1.4450 or to long around 1.4250 with tight stop loss. Bullish scenario will be confirmed by a close above 1.4450 today targeting 1.4600 – 1.4800 this week while bearish confirmation will be confirmed by a close below 1.4250 targeting 1.4127 – 1.4000 area this week.

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EUR/USD closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidated some of this month’s decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If its renews this month’s decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2008- 2009-rally crossing is the next downside target.

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Weekly Technical Commentary

USD/JPY

Chart Levels:

Support 88.00..87.35..86.00..84.82.
Resistance 89.80..90.80..91.35..92.33.

This week: →
This month: ↘

The sharp rally from a multi-year low at 84.82 has turned into ‘triangle’ consolidation. The US dollar is no longer oversold and most elements of this chart still suggest a short USD/JPY position. Long term while below 92.00 downside pressure is maintained, while the closer we get to 85.00 the more the authorities will be tempted to intervene. In fact the early December high at 90.78 might in fact be a new lower interim high. Decent futures volume over the last two weeks suggests many are cutting out of stale positions ahead of expiry and year-end. These will have to be re-built next year.

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD

The pause in Euro rally triggered by Dubai World debts payment delay so far expected to be temporary as after hit bottom at 1.4827, Euro recovered quickly, closed much higher at 1.4985 on Friday and the trendline support still did a good job prevented further bearish attack thus technically keep the bullish scenario intact, especially if price able to move consistently above 1.5062 today, which is technically potential to be tested after rebound from 1.4827. However, note that the false breakout from 1.5062 area (see my daily chart below) also hide a potential bearish view and price could make another downside attempt testing the trendline support and 1.4827 once again, especially if price break below 1.4920/00 area today. No one knows whether the impact of Dubai World is only a temporary panic reaction last week or will continue to shake world stocks market thus could bring the Dollar higher this week. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.5062. Valid break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum towards 1.5140/50 area

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD

Yesterday I said that EURUSD need a consistent move above 1.5150 resistance area to continue bullish towards 1.5300. The fact was, price never got higher than 1.5150 and bullish momentum was rejected. I was right at this point until price unexpectedly made further bearish momentum, fell below 1.5062, bottomed at 1.4959 and closed at 1.5006. I have to admit and realize that my technical study was completely a mess. After broke above 1.5062 and topped at 1.5143 on Wednesday, I thought a movement towards 1.5300 should not be that hard. Well, my 1.5150 bullish target area was easily hit, but my second bullish target around 1.5300 was not. Technically the bias reverse to bearish, especially in nearest term with 1.4920 support area to be tested. Break below that support level should trigger further bearish momentum towards 1.4850/20 area, but as long as the bullish trendline support hold (see h4 chart below), the bullish scenario in longer term remains intact, especially if price able to break above 1.5062 today, testing 1.5150 area once again. Note that bearish reversal scenario warning is now can not be ignored especially if we have further bearish below 1.4820 with 1.4625 and 1.4450 as technical target. I think I will stand aside for now as situation is very tricky, but probably consider about open long position if price move near trendline support area or 1.4850/20 area today with tight stop loss.

On fundamental point of view, the risk aversion came back into play yesterday. Bloomberg reported that Dubai World proposal to delay debts payment shook investor’s confidence. Stocks in Asia, US and Europe dropped significantly while Yen and Dollar benefited from this situation. Well, I think it’s the time that we should not be too optimistic about global economic recovery. It’s true that we have some significant improvement and have good reasons to be optimistic, but things are just still far from being stable and investor’s panic selling on Dubai World debts payment delay prove that. The Japanese Yen is the most currency appreciated in this situation, lead ‘safe heaven’ currencies strengthen. However, I am concern about possible intervention by Japanese government to weaken the Yen as traders may respond to it thus potentially wane the Yen and Dollar rally.

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

Finally, we have significant technical break on EURUSD. As you can see on my daily chart below, price break above the peak at 1.5062, topped at 1.5143 and closed at 1.5136. If you remember my technical study on November 12, I said about two double top scenarios: valid or failure scenario. When a chart formation fails, I believe the opposite scenario is in play. If the bearish reversal scenario fails, the bullish continuation is in play. So, whether a chart formation fails or valid, I always have a clue. Isn’t that great? I am in buy mode now, targeting 1.5300 area. We have an important resistance around 1.5150 area and need consistent move above that area before aim for 1.5300. Immediate support at 1.5090 followed by 1.5062. As long as price able to stay above 1.5062, the bullish scenario should remains intact. CCI in overbought area and heading down on h4 chart, so watch out for potential minor downside pullback.

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD made another rejection to consistently move below 1.4820 key support level on Friday. This fact surely keep the major bullish scenario intact, but the bearish reversal scenario warning showed by double top pattern with peaks around 1.5062 area is also still valid and the bias should remains neutral as market is consolidating now. Overall, this pair has been indecisive in the last two weeks and we need a significant movement above 1.5062 to continue the bullish continuation towards 1.5150 and 1.5300 or consistent move below 1.4820/00 area to confirm further bearish pressure towards 1.4625 and 1.4450 area. Immediate resistance at 1.4965 and the upper line of my bearish channel, which vulnerable to be tested today after rejection below 1.4820. A violation to the bearish channel should be seen as potential threat to the bearish reversal scenario re-testing 1.5062 area.

On fundamental side, we will have many news from Euro zone today (manufacturing and services PMI) and Trichet is going to make another statement which potentially move the market significantly, especially if we have big surprise whether in the numbers or Trichet’s comment. We know the he support a strong Dollar, but the market respond has been mixed so far.

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.4842 but bearish pressure was limited as the pair closed higher at 1.4915. The bias is neutral in nearest term. My technical focus remains at the bearish channel, which is still valid indicating bearish correction remains intact with the upper line of the bearish channel as key resistance area. As you can see in my daily chart below, the upper line has been doing a good job to keep the bearish correction intact since the rejection to move above 1.5062 area (peaks). Immediate resistance at 1.4965 area. Break above that area could be a serious threat to the bearish correction scenario re-testing 1.5062 area. Initial support at remains at the key support level around 1.4850/20 area.

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