FOREX TRADING

Weekly Technical Update: Greenback Strength Re-emerging

Last week, it the USD crosses such as the EUR/USD and GBP/USD were showing signs of reversal after greenback dominance for end of 2009 and most of 2010 so far. However, by week’s end, the greenback prevailed, and we may have to start thinking of USD-bullish outlooks in the coming weeks. There was some risk appetite to start the week, but that evaporated by the end, dragged by Greece’s uncertain plan of action for its sovereign debt. Let’s take a look and see what we can expect in the coming weeks.

EUR/USD Signals Continuation Decline

Daily and 4H: The EUR/USD has failed to finish development of a rounded bottom as price action was rejected from going above 1.3850. As that important powerline held, the market declined.

The daily stochastic shows a crossover(reversal signal), and the 4H time-frame shows crossover in the oversold zone (bearish continuation).

There is support at 1.3450. A pullback therefore could be expected to spring from this previous low, but a bearish attempt after a weak rally has a good chance to breaking.

Then the intermediate outlook is bearish towards the 1.30/1.31 level.

If no break below 1.3450 occurs, continue to stalk the pair as it is bound to exit its consolidation zone between 1.3450 and 1.3850.

(more…)

This was basically a week of continuing consolidation, except for the USD/CAD which is looking seriously at the parity scenario. The coming weeks may be crucial as the markets test important powerlines. We have short-term consolidations/corrections in pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, and GBP/JPY. But we are also testing long-intermediate-term consolidation in USD/JPY, EUR/GBP, and AUD/USD as well.

EUR/USD Test of Rounded Bottom

Daily: The EUR/USD pair continues to be supported above the 1.3450 support. This week, the market closed above 1.35 and appears to be creating a rounded bottom.

Today’s rally so far heightens that probability but is still premature to call it a reversal signal. The market needs to break above the declining trendline preferably followed by a pullback. This would confirm a reversal and a target could be the 1.42 area, which is the support from a consolidation zone.

4H: The 4H time-frame shows the market in a current swing breaking out from a triangle pattern. A swing projection is to the 1.3820 area, and the market is nearing.

The completion of the rounded bottom is tested here. If the market can eventually break above 1.3820 during this current bullish cycle, the market may go to 1.42.

However the momentum is overbought so there might be a slightly correction in the near-term. Then if the market breaks above, get ready for a pullback to confirm.

(more…)

Bollinger bands will help you to predict big trending moves, act on big trend reversals and finally, time trading positions with greater accuracy for bigger profits.

Here we have related Bollinger bands to the currency markets (as it is here that they are most useful) – but they are useful in all financial markets.

What are Bollinger Bands?

Developed by John Bollinger, Bollinger bands are volatility bands drawn around a simple moving average.

You calculate Bollinger bands using the standard deviation of price over the same period as moving averages and plotted as lines above and below the moving average.

As moving averages have been traditionally used to identify the underlying trend, Bollinger bands combine this with the volatility of the individual market (or the standard deviation) – to plot a trading envelope.

The distance between upper and lower Bollinger bands reflects the volatility of the market traded.

As prices force themselves away from the longer-term average, the standard deviation rises – and thus the bands will fluctuate in varying amounts, away from the average.

(more…)

By Malika Sharma

Swing Trading indicators are what the professional traders use. Indicators support the professional traders on their decision making technique. The banks and the professional traders use the indicators to the maximum achieving better results. The stock charts need to be well described through the use of indicators. Generally, an indicator perfectly complements the stock charts. Try to be careful while placing a large number of indicators on a single stock chart as it might result into complicated charts to read and analyse. Some of the indicators which are usually used by the traders are namely moving averages, stochastic indicator, and relative strength indicator.

Moving averages are considered to be the most traditional and widely accepted type of an indicator. They are preferred as they easily help in identifying the trends. The professionals of the trading industry want to have a view of the trends for the long terms. This could be best viewed by using 150 and 200 moving averages. These type of moving averages are normally used when you are about to place an indicator on the stock chart. Identifying the trends is one of the purposes of the moving averages while the other reason is to have a brief knowledge about support and resistance areas.

(more…)

Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD still trapped in range area of 1.4450 – 1.4250 yesterday. I think the best strategy remains to short around 1.4450 or to long around 1.4250 with tight stop loss. Bullish scenario will be confirmed by a close above 1.4450 today targeting 1.4600 – 1.4800 this week while bearish confirmation will be confirmed by a close below 1.4250 targeting 1.4127 – 1.4000 area this week.

(more…)

Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD has been consolidating in range area of 1.4450 – 1.4250 in the last two weeks. I am expecting a break on either side to see clearer direction. The bearish scenario was interrupted since the violation of the bearish channel (red channel) but the bullish momentum also still limited so far. For me, nothing is confirmed. While conservative traders may stand aside in this situation, aggressive traders still can use range trading strategy, which is to short around 1.4450 or to long around 1.4250 with only tight stop loss. Break above 1.4450 should confirm the bullish scenario at least testing 1.4600 – 1.4800 area this week while break below 1.4250 should trigger further bearish momentum re-testing 1.4170 – 1.4127 area before aim for 1.4000 area.

(more…)

EUR/USD closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidated some of this month’s decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If its renews this month’s decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2008- 2009-rally crossing is the next downside target.

(more…)

Weekly Technical Commentary

USD/JPY

Chart Levels:

Support 88.00..87.35..86.00..84.82.
Resistance 89.80..90.80..91.35..92.33.

This week: →
This month: ↘

The sharp rally from a multi-year low at 84.82 has turned into ‘triangle’ consolidation. The US dollar is no longer oversold and most elements of this chart still suggest a short USD/JPY position. Long term while below 92.00 downside pressure is maintained, while the closer we get to 85.00 the more the authorities will be tempted to intervene. In fact the early December high at 90.78 might in fact be a new lower interim high. Decent futures volume over the last two weeks suggests many are cutting out of stale positions ahead of expiry and year-end. These will have to be re-built next year.

(more…)

Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD

The pause in Euro rally triggered by Dubai World debts payment delay so far expected to be temporary as after hit bottom at 1.4827, Euro recovered quickly, closed much higher at 1.4985 on Friday and the trendline support still did a good job prevented further bearish attack thus technically keep the bullish scenario intact, especially if price able to move consistently above 1.5062 today, which is technically potential to be tested after rebound from 1.4827. However, note that the false breakout from 1.5062 area (see my daily chart below) also hide a potential bearish view and price could make another downside attempt testing the trendline support and 1.4827 once again, especially if price break below 1.4920/00 area today. No one knows whether the impact of Dubai World is only a temporary panic reaction last week or will continue to shake world stocks market thus could bring the Dollar higher this week. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.5062. Valid break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum towards 1.5140/50 area

(more…)

Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD

Yesterday I said that EURUSD need a consistent move above 1.5150 resistance area to continue bullish towards 1.5300. The fact was, price never got higher than 1.5150 and bullish momentum was rejected. I was right at this point until price unexpectedly made further bearish momentum, fell below 1.5062, bottomed at 1.4959 and closed at 1.5006. I have to admit and realize that my technical study was completely a mess. After broke above 1.5062 and topped at 1.5143 on Wednesday, I thought a movement towards 1.5300 should not be that hard. Well, my 1.5150 bullish target area was easily hit, but my second bullish target around 1.5300 was not. Technically the bias reverse to bearish, especially in nearest term with 1.4920 support area to be tested. Break below that support level should trigger further bearish momentum towards 1.4850/20 area, but as long as the bullish trendline support hold (see h4 chart below), the bullish scenario in longer term remains intact, especially if price able to break above 1.5062 today, testing 1.5150 area once again. Note that bearish reversal scenario warning is now can not be ignored especially if we have further bearish below 1.4820 with 1.4625 and 1.4450 as technical target. I think I will stand aside for now as situation is very tricky, but probably consider about open long position if price move near trendline support area or 1.4850/20 area today with tight stop loss.

On fundamental point of view, the risk aversion came back into play yesterday. Bloomberg reported that Dubai World proposal to delay debts payment shook investor’s confidence. Stocks in Asia, US and Europe dropped significantly while Yen and Dollar benefited from this situation. Well, I think it’s the time that we should not be too optimistic about global economic recovery. It’s true that we have some significant improvement and have good reasons to be optimistic, but things are just still far from being stable and investor’s panic selling on Dubai World debts payment delay prove that. The Japanese Yen is the most currency appreciated in this situation, lead ‘safe heaven’ currencies strengthen. However, I am concern about possible intervention by Japanese government to weaken the Yen as traders may respond to it thus potentially wane the Yen and Dollar rally.

(more…)

Equity Sell-Off Empowers The Dollar Bulls

Overall, the sell-off from the equity markets had a major influence on the pound and on the aussie, but interestingly, it had only limited effects on the euro and swissy. Driven by risk-aversion, the yen broke below the 86.00 area, to reach the lowest value since 1995.

Thanksgiving Day has been historically very quiet in the financial markets over the last four years of trading, but today it proves to be a huge exception. Ahead, the market has some major uncertainties since the U.S. session is closed, but the volatility seen throughout the European session might attract some major players into the futures market.

Dollar Index Technical View: TheLFB Member Charts

(more…)

Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

Finally, we have significant technical break on EURUSD. As you can see on my daily chart below, price break above the peak at 1.5062, topped at 1.5143 and closed at 1.5136. If you remember my technical study on November 12, I said about two double top scenarios: valid or failure scenario. When a chart formation fails, I believe the opposite scenario is in play. If the bearish reversal scenario fails, the bullish continuation is in play. So, whether a chart formation fails or valid, I always have a clue. Isn’t that great? I am in buy mode now, targeting 1.5300 area. We have an important resistance around 1.5150 area and need consistent move above that area before aim for 1.5300. Immediate support at 1.5090 followed by 1.5062. As long as price able to stay above 1.5062, the bullish scenario should remains intact. CCI in overbought area and heading down on h4 chart, so watch out for potential minor downside pullback.

(more…)

FX Technical Commentary

Euro 1.4960

Initial support at 1.4833 (Nov 23 low) followed by 1.4802 (Nov 20 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4999 (Nov 23 high) followed by 1.5048 (Nov 11 high)

Yen 88.50

Initial support is located at 88.36 (Oct 9 low) followed by 88.01 (Oct 7 low). Initial resistance is now at 89.19 (Nov 23 high) followed by 89.75 (Nov 16 high).

(more…)

Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD made indecisive movement yesterday, formed a Doji on daily chart. Price attempted to push lower after made a false breakout from my bearish channel but found a support around 1.4887 area before closed higher at 1.4963. On my h4 chart below we can see that price still move in range area indicating consolidation and indecisive market and struggling around the upper line of the bearish channel. Given such fact, I think the bias should remains neutral since we have nothing significant technically.

The Dollar weakness seems limited so far, but overall the market sentiment remains negative for the Greenback although Geither and Trichet support a strong Dollar. Immediate resistance at 1.4990 – 1.5000 area. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum re-testing 1.5062 key resistance area. Break above 1.5062 area should confirm the bullish continuation targeting 1.5150 and 1.5300. However, note that from a longer term point of view, a failure to break above 1.5062 will potentially produce bullish exhaustion thus could trigger significant bearish momentum even a reversal scenario towards 1.4625 and 1.4450. On the downside, immediate support at 1.4887 (yesterday’s low) followed by 1.4820 area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum.

(more…)

Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday, slipped above my bearish channel but price retreat to the downside indicating bullish continuation scenario is potential but don’t be too optimistic yet. We only have 2 options regarding the bearish channel break, whether it is a true breakout or a false breakout. If today price made another bullish above 1.5000 area, I will consider the breakout is valid and bullish momentum should continue testing 1.5062, but if today price fall below 1.4920, I will consider it as a false breakout which lead to significant bearish momentum re-testing 1.4850/20 area. If you follow my daily analysis during the last two weeks, you may know that for me only movement above 1.5062 can be considered as bullish continuation scenario confirmation targeting 1.5150 and 1.5300. Below 1.5062, nothing is confirmed and bearish reversal scenario is still wide open. I still believe so

(more…)