FOREX TRADING

Weekly Technical Update: Greenback Strength Re-emerging

Last week, it the USD crosses such as the EUR/USD and GBP/USD were showing signs of reversal after greenback dominance for end of 2009 and most of 2010 so far. However, by week’s end, the greenback prevailed, and we may have to start thinking of USD-bullish outlooks in the coming weeks. There was some risk appetite to start the week, but that evaporated by the end, dragged by Greece’s uncertain plan of action for its sovereign debt. Let’s take a look and see what we can expect in the coming weeks.

EUR/USD Signals Continuation Decline

Daily and 4H: The EUR/USD has failed to finish development of a rounded bottom as price action was rejected from going above 1.3850. As that important powerline held, the market declined.

The daily stochastic shows a crossover(reversal signal), and the 4H time-frame shows crossover in the oversold zone (bearish continuation).

There is support at 1.3450. A pullback therefore could be expected to spring from this previous low, but a bearish attempt after a weak rally has a good chance to breaking.

Then the intermediate outlook is bearish towards the 1.30/1.31 level.

If no break below 1.3450 occurs, continue to stalk the pair as it is bound to exit its consolidation zone between 1.3450 and 1.3850.

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This was basically a week of continuing consolidation, except for the USD/CAD which is looking seriously at the parity scenario. The coming weeks may be crucial as the markets test important powerlines. We have short-term consolidations/corrections in pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, and GBP/JPY. But we are also testing long-intermediate-term consolidation in USD/JPY, EUR/GBP, and AUD/USD as well.

EUR/USD Test of Rounded Bottom

Daily: The EUR/USD pair continues to be supported above the 1.3450 support. This week, the market closed above 1.35 and appears to be creating a rounded bottom.

Today’s rally so far heightens that probability but is still premature to call it a reversal signal. The market needs to break above the declining trendline preferably followed by a pullback. This would confirm a reversal and a target could be the 1.42 area, which is the support from a consolidation zone.

4H: The 4H time-frame shows the market in a current swing breaking out from a triangle pattern. A swing projection is to the 1.3820 area, and the market is nearing.

The completion of the rounded bottom is tested here. If the market can eventually break above 1.3820 during this current bullish cycle, the market may go to 1.42.

However the momentum is overbought so there might be a slightly correction in the near-term. Then if the market breaks above, get ready for a pullback to confirm.

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Bollinger bands will help you to predict big trending moves, act on big trend reversals and finally, time trading positions with greater accuracy for bigger profits.

Here we have related Bollinger bands to the currency markets (as it is here that they are most useful) – but they are useful in all financial markets.

What are Bollinger Bands?

Developed by John Bollinger, Bollinger bands are volatility bands drawn around a simple moving average.

You calculate Bollinger bands using the standard deviation of price over the same period as moving averages and plotted as lines above and below the moving average.

As moving averages have been traditionally used to identify the underlying trend, Bollinger bands combine this with the volatility of the individual market (or the standard deviation) – to plot a trading envelope.

The distance between upper and lower Bollinger bands reflects the volatility of the market traded.

As prices force themselves away from the longer-term average, the standard deviation rises – and thus the bands will fluctuate in varying amounts, away from the average.

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By Malika Sharma

Swing Trading indicators are what the professional traders use. Indicators support the professional traders on their decision making technique. The banks and the professional traders use the indicators to the maximum achieving better results. The stock charts need to be well described through the use of indicators. Generally, an indicator perfectly complements the stock charts. Try to be careful while placing a large number of indicators on a single stock chart as it might result into complicated charts to read and analyse. Some of the indicators which are usually used by the traders are namely moving averages, stochastic indicator, and relative strength indicator.

Moving averages are considered to be the most traditional and widely accepted type of an indicator. They are preferred as they easily help in identifying the trends. The professionals of the trading industry want to have a view of the trends for the long terms. This could be best viewed by using 150 and 200 moving averages. These type of moving averages are normally used when you are about to place an indicator on the stock chart. Identifying the trends is one of the purposes of the moving averages while the other reason is to have a brief knowledge about support and resistance areas.

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD still trapped in range area of 1.4450 – 1.4250 yesterday. I think the best strategy remains to short around 1.4450 or to long around 1.4250 with tight stop loss. Bullish scenario will be confirmed by a close above 1.4450 today targeting 1.4600 – 1.4800 this week while bearish confirmation will be confirmed by a close below 1.4250 targeting 1.4127 – 1.4000 area this week.

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD has been consolidating in range area of 1.4450 – 1.4250 in the last two weeks. I am expecting a break on either side to see clearer direction. The bearish scenario was interrupted since the violation of the bearish channel (red channel) but the bullish momentum also still limited so far. For me, nothing is confirmed. While conservative traders may stand aside in this situation, aggressive traders still can use range trading strategy, which is to short around 1.4450 or to long around 1.4250 with only tight stop loss. Break above 1.4450 should confirm the bullish scenario at least testing 1.4600 – 1.4800 area this week while break below 1.4250 should trigger further bearish momentum re-testing 1.4170 – 1.4127 area before aim for 1.4000 area.

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EUR/USD closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidated some of this month’s decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If its renews this month’s decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2008- 2009-rally crossing is the next downside target.

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Weekly Technical Commentary

USD/JPY

Chart Levels:

Support 88.00..87.35..86.00..84.82.
Resistance 89.80..90.80..91.35..92.33.

This week: →
This month: ↘

The sharp rally from a multi-year low at 84.82 has turned into ‘triangle’ consolidation. The US dollar is no longer oversold and most elements of this chart still suggest a short USD/JPY position. Long term while below 92.00 downside pressure is maintained, while the closer we get to 85.00 the more the authorities will be tempted to intervene. In fact the early December high at 90.78 might in fact be a new lower interim high. Decent futures volume over the last two weeks suggests many are cutting out of stale positions ahead of expiry and year-end. These will have to be re-built next year.

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