This was basically a week of continuing consolidation, except for the USD/CAD which is looking seriously at the parity scenario. The coming weeks may be crucial as the markets test important powerlines. We have short-term consolidations/corrections in pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, and GBP/JPY. But we are also testing long-intermediate-term consolidation in USD/JPY, EUR/GBP, and AUD/USD as well.

EUR/USD Test of Rounded Bottom

Daily: The EUR/USD pair continues to be supported above the 1.3450 support. This week, the market closed above 1.35 and appears to be creating a rounded bottom.

Today’s rally so far heightens that probability but is still premature to call it a reversal signal. The market needs to break above the declining trendline preferably followed by a pullback. This would confirm a reversal and a target could be the 1.42 area, which is the support from a consolidation zone.

4H: The 4H time-frame shows the market in a current swing breaking out from a triangle pattern. A swing projection is to the 1.3820 area, and the market is nearing.

The completion of the rounded bottom is tested here. If the market can eventually break above 1.3820 during this current bullish cycle, the market may go to 1.42.

However the momentum is overbought so there might be a slightly correction in the near-term. Then if the market breaks above, get ready for a pullback to confirm.

GBP/USD: Still at the Station

Daily and 4H: Not much has developed for the GBP/USD since last week. The pair remains in consolidation like a train staying in the station.

This week the market was supported above 1.4850 and another leg up was started.

By Friday, this attempt has not shown much strength yet, as it still remains below the 1.52 top from the previous leg up.

The market can break the 1.52 and still see resistance near the 1.53/1.5350 area.

Looking at the daily, we see that this area is also coincident with a declining trendline.

If the pair can break above that, and confirm with a throwback, the market can continue to rally to test the important powerline at 1.56/1.57.

Otherwise, the market rejects the bullish attempt, and continues to consolidate. A break below 1.48 would suggest a move to 1.45/1.44.

USD/JPY To Test Resistance

Weekly and Daily: The USD/JPY was stronger this week and continues a rally that would soon test a long-term declining trendline at 91.50.

Basically, a break above that, with further confirmation from a break above the previous 92.30 top, can suggest bullish outlook.

Otherwise, continue to be bearish since the established trend has been bearish the last couple of years.

The stochastic in the weekly is bullish at the moment, but is bearish in combination. The two higher tops are not confirmed with price action, showing that a stronger reversal attempt was not reflected by price action; this is bearish.

The 87.00 projection needs to be re-assessed. Perhaps instead of declining channel, the market will enter a sideways channel for a while before a bullish mode is taken.

USD/CAD Eyes Parity

4H: The USD/CAD attemped to rally but was quickly subdued in the last session. Looking at the 4H time-frame, we see that the signal was spotted prematurely, and the same candle that would have broken above the declining resistance, actually closed back within the channel.

The market instead continued to however above 1.02 until the European session got underway.

We see in the 4H time-frame a near-term projection to 1.01. This is a conservative patterns breakout projection, but considering the overall bearish mode, let’s see what other targets are viable.

Daily and Weekly: The daily chart shows the continuation of a swing past 100% projection of the previous. If this is a butterfly, it is extending the second retracement leg.

Fibonacci projection shows that just above the parity level, there is a confluence of the 161.8% projection of the previous leg, and 138.2% extended retracement of the previous 1.02-to-1.0750 rally.

The weekly shows that the 78.6% retracement level is just below the parity level. If the market breaks below 0.99, it may continue declining until it tests the major low at 0.91. It is still a bit premature, but a confirmation would be a failed bullish attempt after a rebound from the parity level.

EUR/GBP Congestion Pattern

Daily and Weekly: This week, the EUR/GBP attempted a rally, but remains in the consolidation context.

This consolidation comes after a strong push from the 0.87 area. This push is now testing a declining resistance. We can see this resistance as part of a large triangle in the weekly chart.

If the market breaks above this 0.9150 resistance, a move towards 0.96 is possible as a swing projection, first seeing resistance from the previous top at 0.94.

On the otherhand, a decline would be a C-wave within this larger correction pattern.

The daily shows that a decline may be imminent, but may need confirmation from a break below 0.90. This would completed a double top.

The next test is the 0.8850 powerline, which was the resistance of the previous consolidation area. If that breaks, the market may come down to the 0.87 area to test the rising support of the triangle pattern.

Consider that the EUR/GBP has been bullish before this triangle, so if there is bottoming at 0.87, it is very likely a bullish attempt from there will break above the triangle.

But also be ready for the opposite scenario, as a break below 0.87 would spell a decline to 0.84 area, a swing projection.

AUD/USD:Almost 0.92, Resistance Holding for Now

Daily and 4H: The AUD/USD rally was projected to 0.92. The market missed it barely, touching 0.9190. The 4H time-frame shows this is the first non-higher top in the recent channel rally, and the stochastic is showing some signs of exhaustion.

BUT before we jump on the reversal, there are a few tests for the bearish attempt. Current, the near-term signal is a break below 0.92, then a break below 0.9060.

A decline would still see support near the 0.90 area, which is probably coicident with the rising trendline in the 4H.

At the moment monitor the topping action and see what kind of bearish attempt follows. It would not surprise me to see a break above 0.92 next week, unless the bearish attempt is sustained. Look for bottoming action for a decline at 0.9060. If a bullish attempt follows that, a break above 0.92 is likely.

GBP/JPY: Couter-trend Rally Continues

4H and Daily: The GBP/JPY is in a second leg up in its recent correction rally.

Immediately we can see a swing projection to the 139/139.50 area. This is coincident with the SMA200 in the 4H chart, and tests resistance levels both flat and declining.

It would also be a completed bearish Gartley at the 61.8% retracement level, seen in the daily chart.

Weekly: The weekly chart shows how bearish the GBP/JPY since 2008. A swing projection continues to 130.50 or 78.6% retracement. If the current rally is indeed a correction. Get ready for an intermediate bearish outlook in the coming weeks toward 130.50.

Capital Market Services, L.L.C.
www.cmsfx.com

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. CMS will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analyses.

Foreign currency trading is not conducted on an exchange. CMS is acting as a counterparty to its clients’ transactions and as a result, CMS’ interests may be in conflict with its clients. Since CMS acts as the buyer or seller in the transaction one should carefully evaluate any trade recommendation provided by CMS or any of its solicitors. Foreign currency trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors.

All screenshots are made from VT Trader 2.0 and are of actual market data at the time of the screenshot.

Easy Fibonacci Trading Guide – 4 Simple Steps to Trading with Fibonacci

If you’re just like anybody else who’s got demanding lifestyle, I am sure you don’t want to spend most of your time sitting and waiting for the market to move for you. Years of experience has taught me some techniques that allowed me to cut my sitting and waiting time to a minimum. I found that I don’t need to watch the markets hour in hour out. Would you like to know these techniques so you can also do your trading in just a short period, leaving you time to do things that the money from trading allow you to do? Then, read on!

1. Keep your trading technique simple and understandable. It’s important for you to decide right away that you’re going to make trading work for you, not you working for the markets.

2. Choose a very specific technique that you can learn fully and in detail. You don’t want to cover lots of techniques that can confuse when faced with a fast moving market. The Fibonacci trading technique is easy to learn and has very few rules to remember. The best techniques are the simplest ones.

3. Stick with what you know. Don’t be tempted to try to run several different ways to trade. You can learn the Fibonacci Retracement technique in 30 minutes or so. As much as possible, use the method that you know really, really well. You only need to do little research to trade the Fib method so you can save time in your analysis.

4. Fibonacci trading has been used for decades, it is proven, I use it day after day. Quite simply, Fibonacci traders only trade pullbacks to Fiboancci retracement lines and then enter a trade at the next lower (or higher) Fib line with a stop loss above (below) the first Fib line.

You can learn more with the free guide to trading with Fibonacci, "Your Fibonacci Retracement and Trading Guide"

George Hallmey is a day trader and he has reviewed trading systems over many years. You can find out more about his findings, click here – Fibonacci Trading

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News and Events:

The fx markets main focus continues to be the Greek sovereign debt issue and the potential of something concrete materializing from the ECOFIN meeting today. However, we are doubtful we will hear anything new. The Eurozone members are expected to pressure Greece into endorsing further austerity measures and will be given until mid March to prove it will be able to reach its forecasted deficit targets (we are not sure what an extra few weeks will do but…). As of yet, there has been no official bailout plan reported, only a softly worded statement on EU ‘solidarity’ and we don’t think a detail strategy is coming any time soon. So, now FX traders can look forward to 30 days of nervousness and in our mind EUR weakness. Overnight, there has been some harshly worded comments that suggest that members might not be a cohesive as last weeks statement advocated. Finland ‘s Finance Minister stated that EU rules were ‘against a bailout’ and any aid would have to be a bilateral agreement between Greece and members. He also suggested that Finland would not help and ‘Greece must get the money it needs from the market,’ and that Finland has already help enough by supporting Latvia and Iceland . The Austrian Finance Minister said that the fuzzy economic data produced by Greek should not be allowed to undermine the credibility of the EUR. Worryingly, Eurostat, which is already bringing Greece to court for statistical irregularities, today issued a statement that they were unaware that Greece used currency swaps to disguise gaps in there balance sheet. The statistical agency of the European commission has now set an end of February deadline for disclosure on these transactions. Because of the EUs own disclosure and accounting rules, members were not required to report these deals, so markets are completely in the dark to the size and scope of these swaps. And given the familiar names and structures being mentioned, it has eerier similarity to past crisis in the US at the state and country level. Separately, The RBA minutes of Feb 2nd policy meeting provided no real insight into the timing of the next hike.

The AUD bulls (us) found a glimmer of hope in the fact that the reference ‘finely balanced’ remained indicating that strong data leading up to March could sway members. The RBA is still accommodating and the expectation of further inflation assumes ‘gradual further increase in the cash rate’ but the timing is uncertain. Currently, the market is not pricing in a hike in March but if data prints stronger than expected, we thing there is a good shot at another 25bp in March and keeping the AUD well supported. Separately, in New Zealand, Q4 producer prices were weaker than expected, with input prices rising only 0.3% q/q vs. 0.5% expected, -1.1% prior, while output prices fell -0.4% q/q vs. 0.4% exp, -1.4% prior. The much anticipated UK CPI figures printed lower then expected at -0.2% m/m, 3.5% y/y vs -0.1%, +3.5% expected. The GBP sold off slightly ahead of the figures but with the outcome nowhere near the 4.0% y/y print some had expected, we believe the sterling downside is now exposed.

Today Key Issues:

• 09:30 GBP CPI, % m/m (y/y) Jan 0.6 (2.9) prior
• 09:30 GBP RPI, % m/m (y/y) Jan 0.6 (2.4) prior
• 09:30 GBP RPIX, % m/m (y/y) Jan .6 (3.8) prior
• 10:00 EUR Germany: ZEW economic expectations index Feb 47.2 prior
• 13:30 USD Empire state manufacturing index Feb 15.92 prior
• 14:00 USD Net long-term TIC flows, $ bn Dec 126.8 prior
• 17:45 USD Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota (FOMC non-voter) speaks
• 18:00 USD NAHB housing market index Feb 15 prior
• 23:50 JPY Tertiary industry index, %, m/m Dec -0.2 prior

The Risk Today:

EurUsd Yesterday’s US market holiday made for a slow day in EURUSD with a narrow 1.3579-1.3633 range defining the day’s price action, allowing the 14-day RSI to edge back out of oversold territory to 33 levels. Although there’s likely to be a bit more activity today with the US back in and the ZEW survey scheduled this morning, developments in Greece will overshadow most other variables in dictating EURUSD’s bias in the medium term. For now, the 2 week downtrend is the line to watch; with resistance having held on the past 4 occasions, this morning coming in at 1.3665. We should however note that in the absence of other catalysts, there are a number of support levels now in play below which will make price action sticky; starting with yesterday’s 1.3579 lows, then the 1.3531 reaction low from 12 Feb, and below there the 1.3484 fibonacci retracement level (61.8% of 1.2457 to 1.5145). A break above this 2 week downtrend can be expected to easily reach 1.3760 (coinciding with a vibration channel of the larger 3 month downtrend), but should find significant resistance just above the psychological 1.3800 level (and 50% fib retracement level of 1.2457-1.5145). As such, the pay-off profile of waiting for a break higher looks to be the most attractive right now, but disciplined stops will be necessary given the overarching bear trend is still to be respected.

GbpUsd GBPUSD is likely to be highly sensitive to the CPI data released this morning, so we tread with caution until the release, but favouring a slight bearish bias given the strong downtrend still in play in both this pair and EURUSD. So far this morning the pair has been testing the 1 week downtrend line (in a similar fashion to EURUSD), but the pair should meet decent supply around 1.5750, and above there the significant support-turned-resistance at 1.5833. After last night’s mild risk rally we are currently a long way off the nearest expected support at 1.5535 (uptrend vibration channel and 8 Feb lows), so short positions look quite appealing around current levels (1.5720), and really, only daily close above 1.5900 (above the 1 month downtrend) would force us to reconsider our bearish outlook for the short to medium term.

UsdJpy The 1 month downtrend remains the dominant driver of USDJPY, currently coming in around 90.15, and likely to be further protected by very short-term resistance at 89.95. In terms of targets on the downside, the 1 week uptrend support now comes in around 89.30-35; also coinciding with expected support from the fib retracement level (50.0% of 84.83 to 93.77), and backed up by the prior 89.15 level that represented the floor for USDJPY last week. If we do see a resumption of the larger downtrend below 89.15 then really the 88.55 lows from 4 Feb represent the final level of buying interest, before the lower bound of the current downtrend channel at 87.20. Given the potency of the bearish bias and the considerable macroeconomic uncertainty, we favour playing this from the short side, however if we do see a breach of 90.15, there are plenty of levels of selling interest likely to come in around 90.35 (38.2% fib retracement level), 90.55 pivot level, and 91.00 resistance.

UsdChf Like most other pairs this morning, the USD is drifting lower against CHF on the back of improved risk appetite which now shifts the focus in the near term to the 1.0700 uptrend and psychological support. Nevertheless, there are plenty of areas of buying interest expected below, starting with 1.0664 (23.6% fib retracement of 1.0130-1.0828), 1.0600-10 support zone, and then the back side of the prior downtrend which currently comes in at 1.0585. We expect any rallies to be capped for the moment by selling interest towards the recent 1.0828 highs, but the major bottom carved out since last November means we prefer to wait for a correction lower for more attractive long entry levels, and note that beyond 1.0828, the next area of supply is not anticipated until around 1.0980

ACM FOREX

Disclaimer: This report has been prepared by AC Markets (thereof ACM) and is solely been published for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any currency or any other financial instrument. Views expressed in this report may be subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by Salesperson or Traders of ACM at any given time. ACM is under no obligation to update or keep current the information herein, the report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.

By Ahmad A Hassam

Did you find the Holy Grail in trading? If you know when to enter the market and when to exit the market at the right time, you have found the Holy Grail in trading. Fibonacci Retracement and Extensions is the Holy Grail for many traders. They trade by these Fibonacci Levels. Fibonacci sequence is a famous sequence that appears quite frequently in nature. Fibonacci sequence is obtained by adding the last two number to obtain the next number. The first two numbers are 0,1. After that just add the last two numbers to obtain the next number. Fibonacci sequence just develops like 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55,89,144,233,377 and so on.

Ratios obtained by dividing a number in the Fibonacci sequence with the number before it and with two numbers before it are always the same. These two numbers 1.27, 0.618 and 0.382 are very important and occur frequently in nature. These three ratios are used to construct Fibonacci Retracements and Extension Levels.

When there is a trend, price action is steadily going higher or lower. In case of an uptrend the price action makes higher highs and higher lows. While in case of a downtrend, price action makes lower lows and lower highs. This is hard to explain in words visualizing but I will make an effort. It is much better explained in front of a price chart. In case of an uptrend, price action starts from the support A, goes to resistance B, bounces back retraces itself and reaches a newer support C somewhat higher than A bounces back and reaches a higher resistance D before it again bounces back and reaches a still higher support E. So the price action can be broken into these three segments AB, BC and CD.

Now let’s start and draw Fibonacci Retracements. From B when price action bounces back, it retraces the past price action and the most likely place for the new support is one of these Fibonacci levels 0.382, 0.5 or 0.618. Either the price action is bounce back close to 0.382 level or 0.5 level or 0.618 level and then move back to the new resistance. This new resistance will be higher than the previous resistance at B. This new resistance can be at 1.27 or 1.618 from B.

Now while constructing Fibonacci Retracement and Extension, we will start from price A. Calculate the price difference between A and B. Take the three ratios 0.382, 0.5 and 0.618 for this price difference and plot them on your chart. Don’t worry, your trading software will do that nicely for you automatically but you need to understand the concept. Suppose the price difference between A and B is 100 pips. If the price bounces back from 0.382, we say that the retracement was 38.2%. If is bounces back from 0.5 level we say that the retracement was 50% and if it bounces back from 0.618 level, we say that the retracement was 61.8%.

After the market bounces back and takes a U turn at one of these retracement levels and rallies to the point D we say that the market has moved 27% above the original move AB or a total of 1.27%. Now if you want to become a serious trader no matter what market you trade, you should learn Fibonacci Retracement and Extension.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard. Get the Ultimate Swing Trading Software FREE. Learn Fibonacci Retracement!

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Fibonacci, Actually named Leonardo of Pisa, was born in Pisa, Italy about 1175 A.D.. Today, he is recognized as the greatest European mathematian of the middle ages. Fibonacci is credited with introducing the Arabic-Hindu numeral system to Europe. He also introduced the decimal system. Both became the basis of mathematics we use today. Enough background for now.

Although Fibonacci covered an entire realm of mathematics, the main numbers used in trading are actually percentages. The percentages are 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%. These areas are viewed as trend retracement points. The most commonly held theory is that a 38.2% retracement of a trend is a failed reversal and the overall trend should continue. A retracement to the 61.8% mark signals that the retracement is the beginning of a new trend. The 50% level is used for different strategies if confirmed by several other signals

The use of Fibonacci numbers in trading has become increasingly popular in recent years. It does not take long when looking at charts to see several examples of Fibonacci tracements. On numerous occassions I have watched analysts making market predictions on T.V. shows. I will often check the charts about what they discussed. Some of the predictions for new price levels are dead on Fib. retracement numbers.

Fibonacci numbers, as with all technical indicators should not be used by themselves. They should be combined with other indicators to make a complete system to trade with. I do believe that Fibonacci numbers should be a part every traders list of indicators. They do seem to be extremely accurate, This could possibly a self fulfilling prophecy. If enough people believe it, they will cause it to hold true.

In any case, if you do not currently use them, you may want to look into it.

Leonardo Pisano, better known by his nickname Fibonacci, published Liber abaci in 1202 in which he posed the following problem:

A certain man puts a pair of rabbits in a place surrounded on all sides by a wall. How many pairs of rabbits can be produced from that pair in a year if it is supposed that every month each pair begets a new pair, which from the second month on becomes productive?

The resulting sequence is 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55,… each number in the series is the sum of the two numbers preceding it. He also discovered that each number in the sequence is 1.618 times the preceding number and.618 of the next number.

Many technicians use the Fibonacci numbers when trying to determine support and resistance, and commonly use.382,.50, and.618 retracements.

It is commonly believed that a.382 retracement from a trend move will tend to imply a continuation of the trend. A.618 retracement implies that a trend change may be in the making. Technicians have adopted many such rules. My approach is different in that I do not use Fibonacci retracement numbers to determine the trend. My long-term trend is determined by a simple 89-period moving average. It is effective from a one-minute chart to a monthly chart. This moving average is the literal battleground between the bulls and bears.

My method for determining support and resistance in the direction of the main trend (which is always determined by prices either above or below the long-term simple 89 period moving average.) Most charting packages will enable you to create a simple 89-period moving average. I encourage you to look at the market this way.

My method is different in calculating support and resistance than the standard ratios with which most traders are familiar. More accurate because of the use of more data points and the way the ratios are calculated. I include as many as seven swing highs and swing lows in addition to the significant high points and significant low points in the calculations.

Let’s review the approach I use to calculate support and resistance levels. The first thing I need to identify is a trend move, i.e. a significant high point to a significant low point or vice versa. These points are the extreme boundaries of the trend.

Within these extreme points are contra-trend swing highs within an overall downtrend and swing lows within an overall uptrend. In other words, I look to “capture” the high/low points of a contra-trend move within the longer trend.

These contra-trend high/low points are swing points and are critical to my calculation of support and resistance.

The normal retracement levels of.382,.5, and.618 of the maintrend, are simply not accurate enough when the pinpointing of support and resistance becomes crucial to pulling money out of the markets.

First, it is important to understand the concept of support and resistance. In this writer’s opinion, unless you can determine precise support and resistance, most traders will achieve mediocre results at best.

Simply put, support means there is sufficient buying pressure (volume) at a given price level to halt a downtrend and resistance means there is sufficient selling pressure (volume) at a given price level to halt an uptrend. Support places a floor under the market and resistance places a ceiling above the market.

The higher the volume, relative to the range of the price bar, the more significance is given to the price level as support and resistance. I measure this in terms of ticks in a price bar. A greater number of transactions (ticks) within a given time frame (and this can be anything from a one-minute price bar to a monthly bar) when divided into the range of the bar and compared with the previous two price bars, with the mathematical result being lower, will produce a robust highly predictive power signal for market reversals.

This signal is my trigger to enter a trade. I call this signal a squat. The only thing I now need to know is where support and resistance will likely take place.

This is where my calculation of support and resistance comes in. The resulting output is four levels of support and four levels of resistance, they are: lower resistance, stopping Point resistance, upper resistance, maximum resistance (bearish levels) and upper support, stopping point support, lower support, maximum support (bullish levels).

Each of first three levels of resistance and first three levels of support are tradeable levels, as long as a squat is generated on the entry bar. The maximum resistance and support levels are normally not used for entries-unless they are a “confluence” number from a larger or smaller trend. This involves finding common prices when analyzing more than one time frame.

Prior to the development of software, it was time consuming to create these levels of support and resistance, except on daily and weekly data. We can now produce reliable, tradeable numbers on intra-day data even when highs and lows are constantly changing.

To Find Resistance

An example of resistance would be that the market has made a significant high point (SHP). Now the market proceeds to correct, contrary to the main trend and puts in a series of swing highs (SH), finally registering a significant low point (SLP). Observing the chart, you can easily identify the highest high (SHP) and the lowest low (SLP) in the trend and a series of swing highs (SH) that fall between the two extreme points. The selection of swing highs is straightforward. There needs to be a minimum of three bar highs.

To Find Support

An example of support would be that the market has made a significant low point (SLP). Now the market proceeds to rally, contrary to the main trend and puts in a series of swing lows (SL), finally registering a significant high point (SHP). Observing the chart, you can easily identify the highest high (SHP) and the lowest low (SLP) in the trend and a series of swing lows (SL) that fall between the two extreme points. The selection of swing lows is straightforward. There needs to be a minimum of three bar lows.

We will now look at some examples of Fibonacci Clusters and apply the calculations to different time frames (i.e. weekly, daily and intra-day). Check resource box for link to see charts.

Shorts can be taken at all three levels as long the entry bars are accompanied by squats. The point to remember: this resistance will be constantly updated in real time as new lows are made.

I’m Bernie Mitchell. My Fibonacci Impulse Commentary, covering the stock market and Gold, has been published since the Fall of 1999, with around 20 issues per month currently being sent to 5000 devoted readers. It primarily deals with timing the markets on a short/ intermediate term basis. To expand my audience, I am making it available free to readers. To receive my commentary by email or RSS feed visit http://feargreed.com/

Anyone with questions feel free to email us. I teach my entire method of wealth allocation personally for one flat fee with unlimited follow up to ensure that our students are prepared to make profits over time. Any investment or trading site that likes my material and would like to publish exclusive content send us an email

See charts at: http://feargreed.com/

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