The EURUSD was corrected lower yesterday after bad Euro zone Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI numbers. The bias is neutral in nearest term. We haven’t seen significant bearish correction during the strong bullish momentum, so any bearish correction is normal and I don’t see potential technical bearish reversal scenario so far. On h4 chart below we can see price is moving in a minor bearish channel, (which is also can be seen as a bullish flag formation) indicating bearish consolidation but overall we are still in bullish phase but need a break out above the bearish channel to continue the bullish scenario testing 1.3500. Immediate support at 1.3250, which is the 23.6% Fibo retracement of 1.2644 – 1.3438. Fundamental focus today will be on German Ifo Business Climate and US Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales. Trading in the weekend with some high impact data and technical consolidation could be very tricky so don’t rush jump into the market.

GBPUSD

The GBPUSD made another volatile but indecisive movement yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall we are still in bullish phase. I have made adjustment to the minor bullish channel (red). Price has been moving in range area of 1.5728 – 1.5500 and need a break on either side to see clearer direction. I still prefer a bullish scenario and expect a clear breakout above 1.5728 testing 1.5800 before targeting 1.6000 in longer term view. Immediate support at 1.5585 and the lower line of the minor bullish channel. Break below that area could be a serious threat to the current bullish outlook testing 1.5500 and the lower line of the major bullish channel (white). Fundamental focus today will be on US Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales. Risk aversion/appetite sentiment likely to stay and drive the movement for now.

USDJPY

The USDJPY was indecisive yesterday, made a Doji on daily chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term. So far I have conflicting technical view, where violation to the trend line resistance indicates bullish reversal scenario but the rounding top formation indicates bearish scenario. We need a break above 84.82 to cancel the rounding top bearish scenario and continue the upside attempt testing 85.90. On the other hand, break below 84.00 could give further bearish confirmation testing 82.87

USDCHF

The USDCHF was indecisive yesterday, made a Doji on daily chart indicating consolidation, which is normal after a strong bearish momentum. The bias is neutral in nearest term but still within a major bearish context. Immediate resistance remains around 0.9931 and the upper line of the bearish channel. Break above that area could diminish the bearish outlook and activate my wait and see mode but overall we are still in major bearish scenario with 0.9730 as nearest target.

EURJPY

The EURJPY was corrected lower yesterday, but found support around the lower line of the bullish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below and whipsawed to the upside, hit 113.74 earlier today in Asian session. This fact could trigger further bullish continuation testing 114.73 in medium term. Immediate support at 113.00. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term but overall we are still in strong bullish phase as long as price move inside the bullish channel

GBPJPY

The GBPJPY didn’t make significant movement yesterday, but had some bullish momentum earlier today in Asian market, hit 133.75 after rebounded from 50% Fibo retracement of 128.54 – 135.03 as you can see on my h4 chart below and now struggling around the 23.6% level. This fact could trigger further bullish continuation re-testing 135.03 in medium term especially if price able to stay consistently above the 26.3 % level around 133.60. Immediate support at 132.50.

AUDUSD

The AUDUSD was corrected lower yesterday, but found support around 0.9467 as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias remains neutral in nearest term as price still consolidating in range area. The major scenario remains bullish but need a clear break above 0.9600 to continue the bullish pressure testing 0.9650 – 0.9715 region. On the downside, break below 0.9467 could diminish the bullish outlook, lead us to neutral medium bias but as long as price moves inside the bullish channel the main scenario remains bullish.

EUR/USD posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday as it consolidates some of this month’s rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signalling that additional gains are possible near-term. If it extends the rally off August’s low, April’s high crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

USD/JPY closed lower on Thursday as it extends this week’s decline below the 20-day moving average crossing confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If it extends this week’s decline, this month’s low crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

GBP/USD closed higher on Thursday as it extends this week’s rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If it extends last week’s rally, August’s high crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

USD/CHF closed lower on Thursday as it extends this year’s decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If it extends this summer’s decline, the 2008 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

The EURUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.3438 and closed at 1.3393 following a strong break out above the trend line resistance on Tuesday. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 1.3500 area before testing 1.3700. Immediate support at 1.3333 (former resistance). Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.3267 but overall we are still in strong bullish phase. Fundamental focus today will be on some Euro zone Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI data and US Unemployment Claims and Existing Home Sales. Risk aversion/appetite sentiment likely to keep driving the market so good numbers could trigger further bullish momentum while bad numbers could trigger some technical downside rebound.

GBPUSD

The Cable is the only major currency that fail to gain from broad Dollar weakness after FOMC meeting. On h1 chart below we can see price still able to move inside the minor bullish channel (red) indicates strong bullish view remains intact but we haven’t seen significant bullish momentum so far. The bias is neutral in nearest term and need a clear break above 1.5728 to continue the bullish scenario towards 1.5800 and 1.6000. Immediate support at the lower line of the minor bullish channel and 1.5625. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pullback testing 1.5586 but overall we are still in bullish phase. Fundamental focus today will be on UK BBA Mortgage Approvals and US Unemployment Claims and Existing Home Sales. Risk aversion/appetite sentiment likely to keep driving the market so good numbers could trigger further bullish momentum while bad numbers could trigger some technical downside rebound.

USDJPY

The USDJPY attempted to push lower yesterday after break below 84.82, but found support around the trend line resistance as you can see on my h4 chart below. A downside pullback testing the violated trend line often happen technically, but a movement back below the trend line could be a serious threat to the bullish scenario re-testing 82.87 as the rounding top bearish reversal scenario is now confirmed. However, like I said yesterday, any further Yen appreciation could trigger another intervention and this could be a psychological support. On the upside, another move back above 84.82 should keep the bullish scenario intact testing 85.90 region.

USDCHF

The USDCHF continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 0.9837 after break below 0.9931 as you can see on my h4 chart below. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 0.9730. Immediate resistance at 0.9931. A movement back above that area could lead us to neutral zone as direction would become unclear in nearest term but as long as price move inside the bearish channel we are still in strong bearish scenario.

EURJPY

The EURJPY had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday. I was expecting more bullish momentum but the upside pressure still limited. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall we are still in strong bullish phase especially if price able to break above 113.51 testing 114.73. Immediate support at 112.55. Break below that area could trigger further bearish pullback testing the lower line of the bullish channel.

GBPJPY

The GBPJPY attempted to make another bearish pullback yesterday, but found support around 50% Fibo retracement of 128.54 – 135.03 after bullish momentum triggered by the intervention lose some momentum. The bias is neutral in nearest term. I still prefer a bullish scenario but we need a movement above 133.50 to see further upside pressure. On the downside, consistent move below 131.70 and 50% Fibo retracement could trigger further bearish pressure testing 131.00 region but note that that any further Yen appreciation may trigger another intervention by the Japanese government.

AUDUSD

The AUDUSD was indecisive yesterday, formed a Doji on daily chart. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall we are still in strong bullish phase especially if price able to break above 0.9600 testing 0.9650 – 0.9715 region. Immediate support at 0.9467. Break below that area will activate my wait and see mode but as long as price still move inside the bullish channel the major scenario remains bullish.

EUR/USD closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this month’s rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signalling that additional gains are possible near-term. If it extends the rally off August’s low, April’s high crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

USD/JPY closed lower on Wednesday and below the 20-day moving average crossing confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If it extends this week’s decline, this month’s low crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction low crossing would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree rally during the last half of September.

GBP/USD closed higher on Wednesday and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. However, stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. If it renews the decline off August’s high, the 50% retracement level of the May-August rally crossing is the next downside target. If it extends last week’s rally, August’s high crossing is the next upside target.

USD/CHF closed lower on Wednesday and renewed this summer’s decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If it extends this summer’s decline, the 2008 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing is the next downside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

Current level – 0.8477

Longer term trading in a wide range between 0.8070 and 0.8500, the bias remains bearish and in consolidation zone.

Intraday: gains extended above 0.8500, reaching 0.8512 high. We are waiting for a retracement to support area in 0.8400/20 to reinstate long positions targeting 0.8530s

Profit-taking affects gold curbing silver and platinum

USD/CAD

Current level – 1.0249

Long term bias for the USD/CAD remains neutral, a solid base is now formed a around parity level.

Intraday: no more upside after the FOMC announcement, retesting 1.0220 support if it breaches this level a logical target would lay at 1.0100. If it holds, a triple bottom could be in place.

GBP/JPY

Current level – 132.93

Long term bias remains bearish and breaking through the previous year lows keeps the bears in control of the pair.

Intraday:  held above 132.00 moving average support and rebounding above 133.00, we still expect a slide to support area. in 131s.

Current level – 1.3288

EUR/USD is in a downtrend, after peaking at 1.5146 (Nov.25,2009). Technical indicators are descending, and trading is situated below the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.3458 and 1.4206.

With the break above 1.3159 the uptrend was renewed, reaching high few pips below the previous top at 1.3335. Our intraday outlook is negative, for a corrective slide towards 1.3150 support.

Profit-taking affects gold curbing silver and platinum

USD/JPY

Current level – 84.85

The pair is in a broad consolidation above 84.78 short-term low. Trading is situated below the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 92.60 and 91.06.

The pair is marching towards 84.37 support, that should mark the lower boundary of the new minor range below 85.25.

GBP/USD

Current level – 1.5684

The pair is in an uptrend after bottoming at 1.4226. Trading is situated above the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 1.4986 and 1.5539.

Yesterday’s break above the crucial 1.8587 provoked a fast uptrend towards 1.5729 resistance, but today we favor a reversal for 1.56+ before one final leg upwards, to 1.5810.

The EURUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday after market react positively on FMOC statement.  Although most part of the statement didn’t show significant change from the previous releases, the Fed willingness to “provide additional accommodation if needed to support the economic recovery” triggered risk appetite and push Euro higher. This positive reaction on global recovery could remain stay in the market at least in nearest future and give further support to the Euro. On daily chart below we can see price made a strong breakout above the trend line resistance indicating potential bullish continuation testing 1.3500 region especially if price able to make another break above 1.3333 (August 06 high). Immediate support at 1.3250/00 area. As long as price stay above that area, technical bias remains strongly bullish.

GBPUSD Outlook

The GBPUSD also had a bullish momentum yesterday after FOMC statement triggered broad Dollar weakness. On h1 chart below we can see price is moving in a new minor bullish channel indicating potential bullish continuation, but still need a clear breakout above 1.5728 to continue the bullish scenario testing 1.5800 even testing 1.6000 psychological level. Immediate support at 1.5586 and the lower line of the minor bullish channel (red). Break below that area could lead us to neutral area in nearest term as direction would become unclear but as long as price still move inside the major bullish channel (white) we are still in bullish phase.

USDJPY Outlook

The USDJPY had a significant bearish correction yesterday on broad Dollar weakness and now struggling around 84.82 support area. On h4 chart below we have a rounding top formation, which is a bearish reversal pattern especially if price able to break below 84.82 testing 84.00 area even lower. However note that any further Yen appreciation could trigger another intervention by the Japanese government. On the upside, we still need a break above 85.90 to continue the bullish momentum testing 87.00.

USDCHF Outlook

The USDCHF continued its bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 0.9958. On h4 chart below we can see price is moving inside a new bearish channel (red) after violated the bullish channel indicating potential bearish pressure. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to break below 0.9931 region targeting 0.9870 before testing 0.9730. Immediate resistance at 1.0030 and the upper line of the bearish channel. Break above that area could lead us to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear but the major scenario remains bearish.

EURJPY Outlook

The EURJPY was volatile yesterday, made some false breakout/breakdown from my range area ahead of FOMC meeting but finally the bullish power took control and price now seems comfortable above range area indicating potential further bullish outlook testing 113.30 – 113.90 in nearest term before testing 114.73 area especially if price able to break above 112.97 today. Immediate support at 112.35. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone as direction would become unclear but overall I still prefer a bullish scenario.

GBPJPY Outlook

The GBPJPY failed to gain further bullish momentum yesterday and slipped below 133.00. The bias is neutral in nearest term as direction is unclear but another consistent move above 133.00 should keep the bullish outlook intact with 136.00 remains the nearest bullish target. Immediate support at 132.33 (yesterday’s low). Break below that area could trigger further bearish pullback testing 131.68 but note that any further Yen appreciation may trigger another intervention by the Japanese government

AUDUSD Outlook

The AUDUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday after struggling around 0.9467 but finally the bullish power able to take control and seems convincingly above 0.9467. The bias remains bullish in nearest term targeting 0.9650 region. On the downside, only pullback below 0.9467 could diminish the current bullish outlook but overall the technical bias remains strongly bullish as long as price move inside the bullish channel.

EUR/USD closed lower on Monday and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If it extends the rally off August’s low, August’s high crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes below August’s low crossing would renew the decline off last month’s high.

USD/JPY slightly lower on Monday and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

GBP/USD closed lower on Monday and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If it extends last week’s rally, August’s high crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

USD/CHF closed lower on Monday as it extends last week’s decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last Friday’s low crossing would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If it renews this summer’s rally, the 2009 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing is the next upside target.