FOREX TRADING

The EURUSD didn’t make significant movement yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but we are still in bullish correction phase as price is moving strongly inside the bullish channel as you can see on my h1 chart below. A break above the trend line resistance could trigger further upside momentum testing 1.2930. On the downside only a violation to the bullish channel and movement below 1.2770 support area could trigger bearish continuation at least testing 1.2700. Pay attention to US Non Farm Payroll data today.

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EUR/USD closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off this month’s high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signalling that a short-term low is in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing would temper the bearish outlook. If it renews last month’s decline, the reaction low crossing is the next downside target.

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The EURUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.2854 and closed at 1.2807 after price break above the triangle. Positive data from China and Australia trigger risk appetite and hurt the Dollar. The “head and shoulders” bearish scenario remains intact but clearly under heavy pressure as price is now move above the neckline (1.2700). A new trend line resistance (yellow) is drawn as a result of yesterday’s price action. Break above that trend line and 1.2854 could trigger further upside pressure testing the right shoulder of the H&S formation around 1.2930 which could be a serious threat to the bearish outlook and potential bullish reversal scenario. On the downside, I think we need another move below 1.2700 to see further bearish pressure.

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EUR/USD closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off this month’s high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signalling that a short-term low is in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing would temper the bearish outlook. If September renews last month’s decline, the reaction low crossing is the next downside target.

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EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD was indecisive on Friday. We are still in bullish correction phase but my major bearish outlook remains intact especially if price break below the rising wedge formation and 1.2680 support area testing 1.2523 – 1.2470 area. On the other hand, if the upside correction continues and price break above the rising wedge, we could see further upside correction testing 1.2825 – 1.2930 region which could be a serious threat to the current bearish outlook.

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EUR/USD closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off this month’s high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signalling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If it extends this month’s decline, the reaction low crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing would temper the bearish outlook.

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EUR/USD closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off this month’s high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signalling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If it extends this month’s decline, the reaction low crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing would temper the bearish outlook.

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The EURUSD continue to make upside pressure yesterday, topped at 1.2763 but still unable to move consistently above 1.2730, traded lower around 1.2700 at the time I wrote this comment. We are still in upside correction phase as long as price move inside the minor bullish channel but the major scenario remains bearish. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Another upside movement above 1.2730 could trigger another upside pressure testing 1.2770 – 1.2825. On the downside, a movement below 1.2650 and violation to the downside of the minor bullish channel could potentially end the upside correction testing 1.2587 – 1.2523 and keep the bearish scenario remains strong.

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