FOREX TRADING

Very little to report from overnight activity as there was little to speak of. I can only imagine everyone was watching Madonna lip sync at the half time show. Of note however was the fact that risk opened Asia with a gap lower and has since then spent most of

The euphoria from Friday’s US payrolls number that propelled risk higher has faded today as Greece takes centre stage. The technocratic government led by Lucas Papademos is trying to convince the three main political parties that more austerity is needed. A statement late last night said that an agreement between

Euro zone retail sales declined unexpectedly in December, said the European Union’s statistics office Eurostat on Friday. Retail sales fell 0.4 per cent from November after declining by the same amount in October.

On Friday, the payrolls triggered an interesting reaction on the currency market. The strong US labour market report supported the dollar and not risk sensitive currencies like the euro. This weekend, uncertainty on the Greek debt talks is pushing EUR/USD closer toward the first significant support level.

Friday’s US employment data was extremely encouraging, with the headline non-farm payrolls coming in much stronger than expected at 243k (compared to consensus estimates looking for 140k), and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping to 8.3% from 8.5% prior. The release led to a short-term uptick in risk sentiment characterized by

The combination of an overstretched record short EUR position and the recent announcment by the FED regarding (low) interest rates and the potential for QE3 triggered a round a long dollar liquidation in the week to last Tuesday.

Another week of Greek debt-swap talks is coming ahead after the failure of the Greek government and private sector bondholders to reach an agreement over the size of losses and interest on new loans last week.

The euro appeared weaker against its major counterparts as markets open with Greece running out of time to meet international demands for more austerity. Various reports are suggesting that Greek leaders have been given until noon, to decide on how to react to Troika’s demands ,however this time is different.

USD suffered vs risky currencies on Friday after stronger numbers from the US. US payrolls rose more than expected, and the unemployment rate continued to fall in January; ISM Services were also strong, further helping equities and risky FX (SEK, AUD, CAD) trade higher. But USD made gains vs JPY

Markets started the session off positive on the back of strong US payroll numbers before the Kospi and Taiex slipped into negative territory. Shanghai Composite also flirted to the downside, London copper, March silver and April gold eased lower with the looming deadline for Greece to reach terms for a

A seeming lack of progress on either of the Greek negotiations (PSI and Troika) over the weekend set the EUR off on a weak tone at the start of trading today. Opening close to New York closing levels from Friday, the EUR slid back to Friday’s lows as no developments

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) stock markets enjoyed some solid gains on the back of the January’s NonFarm Payrolls surging to 243k vs. 170k forecast and the Unemployment rate falling to 8.3% from 8.5%. The USD was not sold off as usual but instead able to hold near the opening levels

Australian retail sales surprised the market on the downside, coming in at -0.1% for December (consensus +0.2%m/m). The aussie was sent around 20 pips lower immediately following the release, with investors pricing in an increased chance for a rate cut tomorrow. Also, Australian interbank futures suggest that traders are pricing

The Lloyds Bank January consumer barometer was released earlier today. Like Friday’s business barometer it was less negative than last month release but confidence is still low. In particular the labour market indicators remain weak and within ranges seen during the 2008/9 recession. The balance for job prospects rose 2

The Australian retail sales surprisingly dropped in December, which is the first drop in six months, as consumers spent less at grocers and on dining out in an economy where employment growth stalled last year.