FOREX TRADING

Euro 1.3460

Initial support at 1.3385 (March 31 low) followed by 1.3268 (Mar 26 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3591 (April 1 high) followed by 1.3627 (Mar 19 high)

Yen 94.25

Initial support is located at 93.68 (Apr 2 low) followed by 93.28 (Apr 1 low). Initial resistance is now at 95.06 (Aug 24 high) followed by 95.29 (Aug 18 High). (more…)

Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD made another indecisive movement yesterday, trapped in a range area of 1.4450 – 1.4600 as you can see on my h4 below, indicating consolidation but the scenario is more to the upside unless we have a break below 1.4450. The bias is neutral in nearest term. We will have some important news from the Euro zone and US today. While ECB likely to keep rate at 1%, traders focus will be more on the ECB press conference. An optimistic tone should support the Euro further while a negative tone may diminish Euro rally. US retail sales data is expected to be weak. Unless we have a significant positive surprise on retail sales numbers, the Dollar should remains under pressure. Break above 1.4600 should continue the bullish scenario targeting 1.4800 area.

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD made indecisive movement yesterday. The bullish momentum after breakout from the previous range of 1.4250 – 1.4450 seems limited so far and looks like price is trying to make another choppy market. However, as long as price stay above 1.4450 area, the bullish scenario targeting 1.4600 should remains intact. Break below 1.4450 should be seen as potential bullish failure re-testing 1.4250 area once again.

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

As I had expected, the EURUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday after breakout from the range area, topped at 1.4555 and closed at 1.4513. However earlier today in Asian session price retreated lower, traded around 1.4490 at the time I wrote this comment, indicating limited bullish momentum so far. The bias is neutral in nearest term but the bullish scenario targeting 1.4600 remains intact as long as price stay above 1.4450 area. CCI just cross the 100 line down on h4 chart suggesting potential further downside pressure testing 1.4450. Break below that area should be seen as bullish failure and could trigger further bearish momentum back towards 1.4250 again

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD made a significant movement this morning by break above range area. This fact should be seen as bullish confirmation at least targeting 1.4600 area before aim for 1.4800 area. Immediate support at 1.4450 area. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear for me but could be considered as a false breakout and trigger further bearish momentum re-testing 1.4250 again. I think the situation is a little bit tricky now since I do not see convincing fundamental factors in Euro zone that can support the currency significantly at this phase. So make sure only use tight money management.

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.4283 but closed higher at 1.4408. The pair still trapped in 1.4250 – 1.4450/80 area. Maybe we need a fundamental catalyst to lead us out from this choppy market and US NFP tomorrow is expected to do this job. While aggressive traders can continue to use range trading strategy to short around 1.4450/80 or to long around 1.4250 with tight stop loss, conservative traders wait until we have a clear break from the range area to make decision.

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EUR/USD closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates above the 10-day moving average crossing. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If it renews the decline off December’s high, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009-rally crossing is the next downside target.

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, slipped above 1.4450, topped at 1.4483 but further bullish momentum was rejected as price whipsawed to the downside, bottomed at 1.4346 and closed at 1.4363. On h4 chart below we can see that this was a case of a false breakout which usually trigger bearish pressure testing 1.4250 area. We need the price to close below that area to confirm the bearish scenario testing 1.4127 – 1.4000 this week. Immediate resistance at 1.4400 – 1.4450 area.

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