FOREX TRADING

EUR/USD closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off this month’s high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signalling that a short-term low is in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing would temper the bearish outlook. If it renews last month’s decline, the reaction low crossing is the next downside target.

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The EURUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.2854 and closed at 1.2807 after price break above the triangle. Positive data from China and Australia trigger risk appetite and hurt the Dollar. The “head and shoulders” bearish scenario remains intact but clearly under heavy pressure as price is now move above the neckline (1.2700). A new trend line resistance (yellow) is drawn as a result of yesterday’s price action. Break above that trend line and 1.2854 could trigger further upside pressure testing the right shoulder of the H&S formation around 1.2930 which could be a serious threat to the bearish outlook and potential bullish reversal scenario. On the downside, I think we need another move below 1.2700 to see further bearish pressure.

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EUR/USD closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off this month’s high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signalling that a short-term low is in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing would temper the bearish outlook. If September renews last month’s decline, the reaction low crossing is the next downside target.

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EUR/USD closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off this month’s low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bullish signalling that additional strength is possible near-term. If it extends this month’s rally, the reaction high crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing would temper the bullish outlook.

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Currency pair USD/CHF

Conditional critical level is once again broken, besides, a wave [b] prospective Expanded Flat B of (2) at level of the limiting sizes. It persistently specifies all in necessity of revision of the scenario. The variants considering behaviour of the price will be considered in the near future and published in section of the monthly analysis. Within the limits of the considered scenario, formation of an impulse with of (y) of [b] presumably comes to an end. If the assumption is true, after its termination it is possible to expect growth of pair as an impulse or a Diagonal Triangle [c] of B.

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EUR/GBP

Current level – 0.8206

Longer term bias switched to bearish now that the cross has breached key support in 0.8400 area.

Intraday:  No change from last week, keeps on sliding for a retest of Junes low in 0.8070 zone. Trade the 100 pip range developed between 0.8140 and 0.8235.

Profit-taking affects gold curbing silver and platinum

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EUR/USD

Current level – 1.2657

EUR/USD is in a downtrend, after peaking at 1.5146 (Nov.25,2009). Technical indicators are descending, and trading is situated below the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.3458 and 1.4206.

Yesterday’s break below the crucial 1.2677 set an end to the rebound above 1.2587 and current bias is negative towards 1.2475. Intraday resistance is seen at 1.2680.

Profit-taking affects gold curbing silver and platinum

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EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD was indecisive on Friday. We are still in bullish correction phase but my major bearish outlook remains intact especially if price break below the rising wedge formation and 1.2680 support area testing 1.2523 – 1.2470 area. On the other hand, if the upside correction continues and price break above the rising wedge, we could see further upside correction testing 1.2825 – 1.2930 region which could be a serious threat to the current bearish outlook.

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EUR/USD closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off this month’s high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signalling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If it extends this month’s decline, the reaction low crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing would temper the bearish outlook.

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EUR/USD closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off this month’s high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signalling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If it extends this month’s decline, the reaction low crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing would temper the bearish outlook.

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The EURUSD continue to make upside pressure yesterday, topped at 1.2763 but still unable to move consistently above 1.2730, traded lower around 1.2700 at the time I wrote this comment. We are still in upside correction phase as long as price move inside the minor bullish channel but the major scenario remains bearish. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Another upside movement above 1.2730 could trigger another upside pressure testing 1.2770 – 1.2825. On the downside, a movement below 1.2650 and violation to the downside of the minor bullish channel could potentially end the upside correction testing 1.2587 – 1.2523 and keep the bearish scenario remains strong.

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The EURUSD made another upside attempt yesterday, topped at 1.2726 but further upside pressure was still limited and traded lower around 1.2670 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is neutral in nearest term and still within a bearish context but price is bouncing to the upside from 1.2587, moving in a minor bullish channel. We need a violation to the downside of the minor bullish channel to continue the bearish scenario. Break above 1.2730 could trigger further upside pressure testing 1.2770 – 1.2825 region before testing 1.2930 which could be a serious threat to the bearish scenario. Immediate support at 1.2620. Break below that area could trigger further downside pressure re-testing 1.2587 – 1.2523 and keep the bearish scenario intact.

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EUR/USD closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off this month’s high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signalling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If it extends this month’s decline, the reaction low crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing would temper the bearish outlook.

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The EURUSD has been moving in volatile but indecisive market for the last 48 hours. After the confirmation of “head and shoulders” bearish reversal scenario, now price is moving in a new bearish channel as you can see on my h4 chart below. This bearish outlook can only be cancelled by a movement above the right shoulder of the H&S formation which is around 1.2930 and violation to the bearish channel. Immediate resistance at 1.2730 followed by 1.2770. We will have some high impact data from the Euro zone and US today. The Euro usually move higher after data release lately but the bullish moves were short lived. Tricky market, but I am still on the bearish side.

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EUR/USD closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off this month’s high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signalling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If it extends this month’s decline, the reaction low crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing would temper the bearish outlook.

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