EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD was indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall we are still in bullish phase. On h1 chart below we can see price is now testing the lower line of the bullish channel. Break below the bullish channel could trigger further bearish pullback testing 1.2920/50 but any downside rebound now should not be a surprise since we haven’t seen bearish correction since last weekend. On the upside, break above 1.3036 (yesterday’s high) could trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.3120. Fundamental focus today will be on four US economic data. PPI, unemployment claims, TIC purchases and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Good numbers could trigger another risk appetite, push Euro higher while bad numbers could trigger risk aversion lead us to technical downside rebound. However the results could be mixed and produce another high volatile market.

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EUR/USD closed slightly lower due to profit taking on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Tuesday’s rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If it extends the rally off August’s low, August’s high crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

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EURUSD

The EURUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.3032 and closed at 1.2998 after better than expected US core retail sales triggered another risk appetite sentiment. If we keep seeing good fundamental data, this bullish momentum likely to continue. On h4 chart below we can see price is moving strongly in a bullish channel indicating a strong bullish phase testing the trend line resistance (red). Although the medium and nearest term bias is strongly bullish, only a break above the trend line resistance could be a serious threat to the long term bearish outlook. Immediate resistance, which is also nearest bullish target is seen around 1.3120. Initial support at 1.2900 and the lower line of the bullish channel. Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone. CCI in oversold area and heading down on h4 chart so watch out for potential bearish pullback.

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EUR/USD closed higher on Tuesday while extending the trading range of the past four weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If it renews the rally off August’s low, the reaction high crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing would renew the decline off August’s high.

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Euro 1.3015

Initial support at 1.2588 (Aug 24 low) followed by 1.2434 (61.8% retrace of 1.1877-1.3334). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3033 (Aug 14 low) followed by 1.3187 (Aug 11 High)

Yen 83.10

Initial support is located at 81.85 (May 1995 low) followed by 79.75 (Apr 1995 low). Initial resistance is now at 84.43 (Sept13 high) followed by 85.23 (Sep 3 high). (more…)

USD-CHF 1.0230/33…Resistance at 1.0245-60 wait and watch

R: 1.0245-60 / 1.0291-300
S: 1.0141 / 1.0050 / 1.0012-00

Dollar-Swiss has broken above the Resistance at 1.0150 today and is currently trading above 1.0200. The pair tested the Resistance region of 1.0245-60 and is currently trading lower. In the US sessions today, we may see the pair move in a range of 1.0175-250, however there are less chances of a break above the Resistance region of 1.0260 today. The suggested Max high for the day is 1.0244. (more…)

EUR/USD closed lower on Monday and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signalling that a short-term low is in or is near. If it extends last week’s rally, the reaction high crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing would renew the decline off August’s high.

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EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD didn’t make significant movement yesterday, but we had bearish pressure earlier today in Asian session, hit 1.2789 at the time I wrote this comment. On h1 chart below we can see the bullish channel has been violated to the downside indicating potential bullish failure at least testing 1.2777 – 1.2740 support area. CCI in oversold area and heading up in h1 chart so watch out for potential upside pullback testing 1.2854 region. Break above that area could lead us into neutral zone as nearest term direction would be unclear. Above 1.2854, next resistance to be tested is 1.2930, which is my key level in medium term

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Currency pair USD/CHF

Presumably, the price has started wave formation v of (iii). If the assumption is true, it is necessary to expect continuation of a descending trend as an impulse or a Diagonal Triangle.

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EUR/USD closed higher on Friday and above the 20-day moving average crossing confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signalling that a short-term low is in or is near. If it extends last week’s rally, the reaction high crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing would renew the decline off August’s high.

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EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD continued its bullish momentum on Friday after price break above the trend line resistance as you can see on my h1 chart below. This fact could trigger further upside pressure testing 1.2930 key resistance area like I said on my weekly summary. We are still in upside correction phase here. Break above 1.2930 could trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.3115. On the downside, immediate support at 1.2830 area. Break below that area and violation to the downside of the bullish channel could diminish the bullish outlook and keep the medium bearish outlook intact.

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EURJPY

Presumably, the price forms a correctional wave iv of (iii). Probably, it takes the form of a horizontal Triangle. However considering that overcoming of conditional critical level can break its geometry, it is possible a wave (iv) of (iii) accept other form. But anyhow, if the assumption is true, after its end it is possible to expect falling of pair as impulse or Diagonal Triangle construction v of [iii].

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Currency pair USD/CHF

The assumption is visible about, the wave termination iv of (iii) was a little premature. However while, expectations have not changed. Probably, the wave iv of (iii) has become a deep Zigzag which by the present moment is finished. If the assumption is true, it is possible to expect continuation of a descending trend as an impulse or a Diagonal Triangle v of (iii).

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The EURUSD didn’t make significant movement yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but we are still in bullish correction phase as price is moving strongly inside the bullish channel as you can see on my h1 chart below. A break above the trend line resistance could trigger further upside momentum testing 1.2930. On the downside only a violation to the bullish channel and movement below 1.2770 support area could trigger bearish continuation at least testing 1.2700. Pay attention to US Non Farm Payroll data today.

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EUR/USD closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off this month’s high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signalling that a short-term low is in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing would temper the bearish outlook. If it renews last month’s decline, the reaction low crossing is the next downside target.

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