Foreign Exchange Market Commentary – Daily 08.20.2010
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EUR/USD closed lower on Thursday and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing would temper the bearish outlook. If it extends last week’s decline, the reaction low crossing is the next downside target.

USD/JPY closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates below the 10-day moving average crossing. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If it extends the decline off May’s high, weekly support crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

GBP/USD closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates below the 20-day moving average crossing. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signalling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If it extends this month’s decline, the reaction low crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing would temper the near-term bearish outlook.

USD/CHF closed lower on Thursday and below the lower boundary of this summer’s trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If it extends this summer’s decline, the 87% retracement level of the 2009-2010-rally crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.



