Forex Trading – Look Out For Earnings From Sears, HP And Dell Today
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Wakeup Call: Look Out For Earnings From Sears, HP And Dell Today
We are at the close of the earnings season, but a couple of big names appears on the report list today. Look out for Sears, HP and Dells reports.
What’s going on?
BHP Billiton has increased their offer for Potash to 40 bln. USD. BHP Billiton could pay up to 45 bln. USD and the deal should still be accretive for EPS. However the deal is not without risk – 1) Gearing would increase by 55% making cash management impossible, 2) Potash is heavily unionized and has a dated infrastructure. So above 45 bln. USD we would recommend growing their own potash project organically.
Leading indicators in the US are likely to be roughly flat; building permits declined while weekly hours for manufacturing and initial jobless claims improved in July.
UK retail sales are out and we are looking for a flat July number here as well following the surge in June, which were driven by electrical goods. Hopefully the improving labour market can drive other parts of the economy including consumer spending
Calendar
| Economic Data Releases | |||||
| Country | Time (GMT) | Name | Saxo | Consensus | Prior |
| UK | 08:30 | Retail Sales ex Auto Fuel MoM (JUL) | -0.1% | 0.2% | 1.0% |
| CA | 12:30 | Leading Indicators MoM (JUL) | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| US | 14:00 | Leading Indicators MoM (JUL) | 0.1% | -0.2% | |
| Earnings Data Releases | |||||
| Country | Time (GMT) (G(GMT)(GMT) | Name | EPS exp. | EPS prior | Comment |
| US | Bef-Mkt | Sears Holdings | -0.184 | 0.020 | |
| US | Aft-Mkt | Hewlett-Packard | 0.269 | 0.980 | |
| US | Dell Inc | 0.300 | 0.210 | ||
FX
| FX | Daily stance | Comment |
| EURUSD | 0/- | Prefer selling rallies to 1.2835 for a retracement back to 1.2745, stop abv 1.2865. |
| USDJPY | 0/+ | Buy dips to 85.40 for a bounce through 85.85, target 86.20. Stop below 85.0. |
| EURJPY | 0/+ | Determined break of 109.80-85 area sets up test of 110.80 else stuck 109.00-109.80. |
| GBPUSD | 0/+ | While holding abv 1.5540 look for a bounce to 1.57 again. Below risks visit to 1.5490. |
| AUDUSD | 0/+ | Look to buy dips to 0.8940 for a bounce to 0.9035. Stop below 0.8890. |
| USDCAD | 0 | N/term suppt at 1.0250 area, below risks 1.02 again first. Res expected at 1.0385. |
Equities
| Equities | Daily stance | Comment |
| DAX | 0/+ | Buy around 6195 targeting 6235. S/L below 6185. |
| FTSE | 0/+ | Buy around 5310 targeting 5345. S/L below 5295. |
| S&P500 | 0/+ | Buy around 1090 targeting 1099. S/L below 1086. |
| NASDAQ100 | 0/+ | |
| DJIA | 0/+ |
Futures
| Commodities | Daily Stance | Comment |
| Gold | 0/+ | Buy around 1225 and target 1230. Stop below 1222.40. |
| Silver | 0/+ | Buy on dips towards 18.33 and target 18.44. Stop below 18.28. |
| Oil (CLV0) | 0/- | Sell on rallies towards 75.80 and target 75.28. Stop above 75.07. |
FX-Options
| FX | Comment |
| EURUSD | Curve was being sold later in the European session and if spot does recover above 1.28 we are likely to see vols coming under pressure again today. |
| USDJPY | Spot rallied to a high of 8580 and all short dates turned offered. Upside strikes now seeing some buyers as Japanese officials seem to be verbally supporting spot. |
| AUDUSD | Front end is slightly better bid this morning as spot pushed under 8950 in Asia. 1m traded up to 13.2% vs 12.85% in NY. Some interest to buy Monday and Tuesday 9000 strikes. |
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