FOREX TRADING

EUR/USD closed higher on Friday as it consolidates above the 10-day moving average crossing. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. However, stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If it renews the rally off June’s low, the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing s the next upside target.

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EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD was indecisive on Friday. Price attempted to push lower, bottomed at 1.2794 but closed higher at 1.2914. On h4 chart below we can see that price is moving inside a triangle formation after failed to consistently move above 1.3000 and found support around 1.2735 indicating consolidation. Breakout above the triangle could trigger further upside pressure re-testing 1.3000 before targeting 1.3120. On the other hand, breakdown below the triangle could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.2735 region. Overall we are still in bullish phase.

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Highlights

• Stress test results are in–Yawn
• Sterling bolstered as some of the economic gloom lifts
• German recovery becoming difficult to ignore
• JPY-strength becoming an issue in Tokyo
• Key data and events to watch next week

Stress test results are in–Yawn

The long-awaited results of the Eurozone banking sector stress tests were delivered on Friday and markets greeted them with a collective yawn. Earlier leaks led markets to conclude the adverse scenarios would not be especially stringent, causing most to discount the results. To re-cap, only 7 of the 91 banks tested failed, requiring a total of only EUR 3.5 bio to be raised in new capital. To put that number in perspective, some analysts reckon Spanish banks alone need to raise EUR 40 bio to be adequately capitalized. The stress tests also excluded the potential for a sovereign debt default and focused only on securities held in banks’ short-term trading books, and not the 90% of banks’ government bond holdings that are classified ‘hold to maturity.’ But the basis of the European debt crisis was exactly that–banks holding large amounts of Euro-area government debt were vulnerable in the event of a sovereign default. The lack of credibility of the stress tests raises the risk that market concerns over Euro-area financial sector stability will resurface, leading to another round of speculation that the EUR is a doomed currency. (more…)

This week, the greenback is seen fighting back, although its gains have been slight. It has been most apparent with the EUR/USD. Against the USD/JPY, it is simply holding the Japanese yen from further gains. It also gained insignificantly against the Sterling. Against the AUD and CAD however, the USD actually continued to lose. These mixed results suggest that even though the USD is fighting back, it may still be weak, with the Euro even weaker. Let’s take a look at this week’s action, and see what we can anticipate.

EUR/USD Eyes 1.27, 1.25, 1.2150 (Link)

4H: The EUR/USD has established a top at 1.30 this week after breaking below the double top pattern. Thursday, we saw the EUR/USD surge but this was still a pullback. The targets established in an earlier update are still valid. We know the first near-term target is 1.27, and the market action has set up for a swing towards this level. You can see this projection on the chart above.

I forgot to put the 60 and 40 in the RSI, but you can see the RSI held below 60, a good sign for the bearish outlook.

Daily: The EUR/USD in the daily time-frame has finished 2 bullish swings, and was rejected that 1.30, 61.8% retracement level. I have mentioned the first target is at 1.25. If the market supports the pair here, we may have 5th wave swing towards and possibly above the 1.30 level. However, if 1.25 breaks, this count is invalid. (more…)

U.S. Review

Home Is Where the Economy’s Heart Is

• Housing starts and existing home sales declined in June, reflecting the winding down of homebuyer tax credits.
• Building confidence fell to 14 in July, and June’s numbers were revised down slightly.
• The effect from the unwinding of various economic stimulus programs is evident in other data, with the leading indicators declining 0.2 percent and weekly firsttime unemployment claims bouncing back to 464,000.
• Bernanke’s midyear report to Congress outlined possible future steps the Fed may take to boost economic growth.

We Have Got to Get in Shape

If the state of the nation’s housing market is at the center of the economy’s near-term prospects, then we have got to get in shape. Nearly all of the major housing indicators reported this past week showed more weakness than was widely expected, suggesting that the payback from the homebuyer tax credit program will be a bit deeper and longer lasting than many had hoped. One of the most disconcerting pieces of news was housing starts, which fell 5 percent in June, following a downwardly revised 14.9 percent drop in May. A slight 2.1 percent rise in building permits initially took some of the sting out of the headline number, but all of that gain was in the volatile multi-family unit series. Permits for new single-family homes fell 3.4 percent, following 10.3 percent drops in both May and April

Single-family permits are now running at just a 421,000-unit pace, well below the recent trend in starts. When you couple this with July’s decline in the Wells Fargo/NAHB homebuilders’ index, there is no reason to expect housing starts to increase in July, and we may not see a gain in August either. With demand flat and credit for homebuilders still extremely tight, there is no incentive for builders to get out ahead of demand.

Existing home sales actually fell less that expected, but the trend remains unfavorable. Existing home sales have been harder to read because of the extension of the closing deadline for homebuyer tax credits from June 30 to September 30. The net effect of the deadline extension will be to moderate the slide in existing home sales over the new few months. (more…)

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK

• Fed Chairman Bernanke delivers semi-annual testimony to Congress, in which he noted uncertainty in the economic outlook but stuck to his guns in continuing to prudently plan the ultimate withdrawal of the extraordinary monetary accommodation.
• Chatter of U.S. double-dip recession remains in the headlines. High frequency and leading indicators do support a slowdown, but the indicators are nowhere near levels required to flash a re-entry into a recession. A mid-cycle slowdown remains the most likely outcome.
• No sign that the housing market is breaking free from the doldrums. Starts slip more than market expectations, and while existing home sales beat market expectations, they still backtrack by 5.1% in June.
• In Canada, markets were unscathed by the widely anticipated 25 basis point rate hike by the Bank of Canada (BoC). Reactions, however, followed the ensuing dovish BoC communiqué.
• BoC affirmed that fiscal austerity measures relating to the European sovereign debt crisis appeased the risk of an adverse outcome and lifted the likelihood for sustainable long-term growth, but the global economy will recover at a more moderate pace than previously anticipated. The BoC observed that the Canadian economy has largely developed as anticipated, except for growth in business investment which seems to be constrained by uncertainties surrounding the global outlook.
• We expect a protracted renormalization of the overnight rate, with gradual hikes of 25 basis points through the latter half of 2010 and 2011, albeit interrupted by occasional pauses. The overnight rate should reach 1.25% and 2.50% by the end of 2010 and 2011, respectively.

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The Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke dominated currency trading this week adding risk and trader’s aversion back into the mix. When the Federal Reserve worries in public about the lack of job creation in the United States, and says that “properly executed’ tax cuts can benefit an economy, a policy in direct opposition to the government’s plans, markets begin to doubt the security in their own positive economic judgments. The Fed Chair has always been most circumspect in hi economic assessments, if he is willing to pass comment on current government policy, what fears does he hold if no changes are made in Us economic policy?

In the hour after his congressional testimony at 2:00 pm Easter Time the euro dropped almost a figure against the dollar. If the United States economy is then the rest of the world, including China and Asia is as well. Risk renters the currency market and the dollar is the risk slayer of choice.

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Overview

A week spent speculating which banks might fail their ‘stress tests’, and whether these were worth doing at all, indices alternating between fairly large up and down days to end the week in positive territory. Jakarta, Mumbai and Thailand set new highs for 2010. The Japanese stock market closed near the lowest levels in two years, pressured by a strong yen (86.27) and dragged down by the banks index. The US dollar has lost ground against all major currencies this week, the Australian dollar leading at $0.8972 (a ten-week high) and the Swiss franc at 1.0400, best this year. The Hungarian forint weakened to 292.00 per Euro because of new PM Viktor Orban’s refusal to implement IMF-suggested austerity measures. Top-quality Treasuries remain well bid, those of weaker Eurozone countries still all too close to their records over Bunds. US asset-backed securities the first casualty of new financial regulation, so the SEC has had to allow a 6-month grace period for implementation. [Rating agencies can now be sued for fraud and reckless behaviour so they are not allowing their ratings to be published in prospectuses]. ICE Sugar rallied to 18.66 cents per pound, its most expensive since March though a fraction of February’s unsustainable 30.40 peak. Most Baltic Freight rates are at their lowest in a year or more.

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EUR/USD closed higher on positive data for Europe’s manufacturing and service sectors on Thursday and above the 10-day moving average crossing. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. However, stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If it renews the rally off June’s low, the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing is the next upside target.

USD/JPY closed slightly higher on Thursday and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing would confirm that a short-term high has been posted. If it extends the decline off May’s high, last November’s low crossing is the next downside target. (more…)

The EURUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday after failed to move below 1.2735 support area, topped at 1.2929 and closed at 1.2891. The bias is bullish in nearest term re-testing 1.3000 area especially if price break above the flag formation as you can see on my h1 chart below. Immediate support at 1.2840/50 area. Break below that area could lead us into neutral zone in nearest term re-testing 1.2735 but overall we are still in upside correction phase now.

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EUR/USD

closed lower on Wednesday and below the 10-day moving average crossing signalling that a short-term top has likely been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted and would then open the door for additional weakness near-term.

EUR/USDclosed lower on Wednesday and below the 10-day moving average crossing signalling that a short-term top has likely been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted and would then open the door for additional weakness near-term.

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The EURUSD had a significant bearish momentum, slipped below the minor trendline support (red) as you can see on my h4 chart below indicating potential bearish view in nearest term testing 1.2670 – 1.2600 region. However note that overall we are still in upside correction phase and only a movement below the major bullish channel and 1.2465 support area could be considered as potential bullish failure. I will keep stand aside for now. Immediate resistance at 1.2800. Consistent move above that area could trigger further upside pressure testing 1.2880 – 1.2900 area.

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EUR/USD closed lower due to profit taking on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off June’s low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If it extends the aforementioned rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing is the next upside target.

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The EURUSD was volatile but showed unclear direction yesterday. On h1 chart below we can see price is forming a broadening formation where price makes new highs and lows without clear direction. The upside scenario remains intact but the appearance of the broadening formation activates my wait and see mode. Note that price also reject to move consistently above 1.3000 since Friday, which may indicate potential bullish exhaustion. Immediate resistance at 1.2920 area. Consistent move above that area could trigger further upside pressure towards 1.3000 region again before testing 1.3120. Initial support at 1.2750.

GBPUSD Outlook

The GBPUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.5153 but closed higher at 1.5260. This fact keeps the bullish outlook intact testing 1.5350 in nearest term but need a clear break above 1.5470 to confirm bullish continuation scenario in longer term. On the downside, the lower line of the bullish channel and 1.5150 area is the key support area. A break below that area could be a serious threat to the bullish outlook

USDJPY Outlook

The USDJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday and now seems comfortable stay above 87.00 indicating potential further upside correction testing 88.00 area. The main scenario remains bearish, but we have a falling wedge formation on daily chart below indicating potential upside reversal warning especially if price break above the formation. Immediate support at 87.00 and 86.50 area.

USDCHF Outlook

The USDCHF attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.0452 but closed higher at 1.0524. On h1 chart below we can see price is moving inside a new minor bullish channel indicating upside correction phase but the major bearish scenario remains intact as long as price move inside the major bearish channel. Immediate resistance at 1.0630. Consistent move above that area and violation to the major bearish channel could be a serious threat to the bearish scenario testing 1.0750. On the downside we need a break below 1.0399 to continue the bearish scenario testing 1.0220.

EURJPY Outlook

The EURJPY still trapped in range area of 113.50 – 110.85 in a volatile but unclear movement. I think I will keep stand aside for now and need a break on either side to see clearer direction. Break above 113.50 could trigger further bullish pressure testing 115.50 area while break below 110.85 could end the bullish correction at least testing 109.00 region. Aggressive traders may short around 113.50 or long around 110.85 with tight stop loss.

GBPJPY Outlook

The GBPJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 133.74 and closed at 133.52. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 134.50 area. However, we have a broadening formation inside the range area (0f 136.30 – 130.50) which is actually confirm unclear direction and should keep us out from the market for now.

AUDUSD Outlook

The AUDUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday and now seems ready to test 0.8858 key resistance area. Consistent move above that area confirms the bullish continuation scenario at least testing 0.8980 – 0.9000 area. Immediate support at 0.8790. Break below that area could lead us into neutral zone in nearest term testing 0.8730 but the main scenario remains to the upside.

The Bank of Canada, as expected, hiked rates by a quarter point to 0.75% in today’s meeting. The accompanying release, while saying economic activity in Canada was unfolding largely as expected, did cut its forecasts for growth in 2010 and 2011. Growth in 2010 is now forecast at 3.5% from 3.7%, while the forecast for 2011 was revised to 2.9% from 3.1%. “This revision reflects a slightly weaker profile for global economic growth and more modest consumption growth in Canada.”

From the Release: “Reflecting all of these factors, the Bank has decided to raise the target for the overnight rate to 3/4 per cent. This decision leaves considerable monetary stimulus in place, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target in light of the significant excess supply in Canada, the strength of domestic spending, and the uneven global recovery. (more…)