Daily Technical Analysis – 07.14.2010
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EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday after bad US trade balance number, topped at 1.2737 and closed at 1.2722. The rising wedge formation has failed indicating potential technical bullishness targeting 1.2850 – 1.2900 area. Immediate support at 1.2650 (former resistance). Break below that area would lead us into neutral zone. Although technical study is bullish, I think this bullish run is tricky and fragile from fundamental point of view since yesterday we had bad Euro zone ZEW economic sentiment number, keep the Euro zone in negative territory.
GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday after good UK CPI and bad US trade balance data, topped at 1.5191 and keep moving higher around 1.5210 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is bullish in nearest term especially if price able to move consistently above 1.5238 targeting 1.5400 – 1.5500 region. Immediate support at 1.5100 – 1.5080. Break below that area would lead us into neutral zone as direction is unclear testing 1.5000 – 1.4950 support area.
USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY slipped below 88.23 yesterday, but whipsawed to the upside and closed higher at 88.71. This fact should keep the bullish correction scenario intact with nearest target remains at 89.50 and 90.50 but note that the major trend remains bearish. On the downside, we need a consistent move below 88.23/00 region to cancel this bullish scenario targeting 87.00.
USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF had a moderate bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.0512 and closed at 1.0545. The bias is neutral in nearest term. The main scenario remains to the downside but as long as price stay above 1.0500 – 1.0480 area the upside correction scenario remains intact. Immediate resistance at 1.0585. Consistent move above that area could trigger further bullish pressure towards 1.0650 before testing 1.0750. On the downside, break below 1.0480 could end the upside correction targeting 1.0400 and 1.0220 region.
EURJPY Outlook
The EURJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, slipped below the bullish channel and 110.85 support area but whipsawed to the upside, break above the minor bearish channel, topped at 112.92 and closed at 112.87. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 113.50 and 114.40 area. Immediate support at 112.20. Break below that area could lead us into no trading zone but overall we are still in upside correction phase as long as price move inside the bullish channel.
GBPJPY Outlook
The GBPJPY was bullish yesterday after break above 134.00 and keep moving higher around 135.10 at the time I wrote this comment earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 136.30 region but overall price still trapped in range area. Immediate support at 134.00. Break below that area could lead us into neutral zone both in nearest and medium outlook.
AUDUSD Outlook
The AUDUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 0.8682 but whipsawed to the upside, closed at 0.8829. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 0.8858 resistance area. We need a consistent move above that area to continue the bullish scenario testing 0.8970 – 0.9025 area. Immediate support at 0.8790/60. Break below that area could lead us into neutral zone in nearest term but the main scenario remains to the upside.
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While I can appreciate the points in Daily Technical Analysis – 07.14.2010 | FOREX TRADING, I am sick and tired of hearing about the “US economic recovery”. The US government borrowed and spent $6.1 trillion during the last four years to generate a cumulative $700B increase in the country’s GDP. This means we’ve borrowed and spent $8.70 for every $1 of nominal “economic growth” in Gross domestic product. In constant $, Gross domestic product is flat, we’ve got no “economic growth” at all for our $6.1 trillion. In constant dollars, the gross domestic product in 2011 might get back to the 2007 level, if the economy continues “growing” at the same pace reached in the first 90 days of 2011. If not, then the GDP will actually be below before recession levels. There is no economic recovery, the facts prove this.