FOREX TRADING

Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD touched 1.3595 level yesterday as Brussels summit failed to give a detail plan of the rescue package for Greek but closed significantly higher at 1.3692. Although market seemed disappointed with the absence of the detail, the fact that Euro bounced to the upside may indicate that traders still expect a convincing rescue plan. The situation can be very tricky at this phase. Unless EU come up with satisfying detail, Euro should keep under heavy pressure.

Technically speaking, as you can see on my h4 chart below, the bullish channel has been violated to the downside indicating potential end to the bullish correction but found a strong support around 1.3585 area (double bottom). The bias is neutral in nearest term but overall I still prefer a bearish scenario. Break below 1.3585 should trigger further bearish momentum towards 1.3490 – 1.3400 area. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen around 1.3750 – 1.3800 area.

GBPUSD Outlook

The GBPUSD failed to continue its bearish momentum yesterday. Once again, 1.5560/30 area proved it self as a strong support at this phase. It has been tested in five days in a row and still hold so far. The bias is neutral in nearest term but the bearish scenario should remains intact. On h4 chart below we can see price is ready to test the upper line of the bearish channel. A violation to the bearish channel should trigger further bullish correction testing 1.5800 area. On the downside, a clear break below 1.5560/30 area should trigger further bearish scenario towards 1.5375 – 1.5250 area.

USDJPY Outlook

The USDJPY bullish momentum was paused yesterday as price retreat lower after attempted to move closer to the upper line of the bearish channel. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as the bearish channel valid, the bearish scenario should remains intact. Only a clear break above the bearish channel and 90.20 area could be seen as bearish failure and lead the pair higher towards 91.25 area. Immediate support at 89.00 followed by 88.50 area.

USDCHF Outlook

The USDCHF break above 1.0700 following temporary Euro weakness as a reaction of the lack of detail on EU rescue plan for Greek, topped at 1.0782 but closed lower at 1.0703. The bias is neutral in nearest term since I think we do not have a clear direction so far and I prefer to stay away for now. Expected (new) range at 1.0790 – 1.0600. Break on either side will give a clearer direction towards 1.0850 – 1.0900 or towards 1.0507 area.

EURJPY Outlook

The EURJPY attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 122.04 but closed higher at 122.89. On h4 chart below we can see that the minor bullish channel has been violated to the downside indicating potential end to the bullish correction. The bias is bearish in nearest term re-testing 122.00 area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum towards 120.69 area. Immediate resistance at 123.50. Break above that area should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear. On fundamental side, unless EU come up with satisfying detail about rescue plan for Greek, Euro should keep under pressure.

GBPJPY Outlook

The GBPJPY didn’t make significant movement yesterday indicating consolidation phase. On h4 chart below we can see that price still trapped in a range area of 141.50 – 139.30 but still within the context of a bearish scenario. I think the best strategy remains to short around 141.50 or long around 139.30 with a tight stop loss. Break on either side should give us clearer direction.

AUDUSD Outlook

My strategy to short around 0.8910 with a tight stop loss still work so far as price is moving lower after topped at 0.8919 yesterday. However note that the stop loss must be very tight as a consistent move above 0.8910 area could trigger further bullish momentum targeting 0.9040. Immediate support at 0.8850 followed by 0.8780 area

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