FOREX TRADING

Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.4283 but closed higher at 1.4408. The pair still trapped in 1.4250 – 1.4450/80 area. Maybe we need a fundamental catalyst to lead us out from this choppy market and US NFP tomorrow is expected to do this job. While aggressive traders can continue to use range trading strategy to short around 1.4450/80 or to long around 1.4250 with tight stop loss, conservative traders wait until we have a clear break from the range area to make decision.

GBPUSD Outlook

The GBPUSD made indecisive movement yesterday. On h4 chart below we can see that price is moving in a triangle area indicating consolidation. The bias is neutral in nearest term but the fact that price so far still able to move below 1.6040/60 area should keep the bearish scenario intact with bearish target remains around 1.5832 area. Break above 1.6060 should be seen as a serious threat to the bearish outlook testing 1.6150 and 1.6250 area.

On fundamental side, beside interest rate decision (which is likely to stay at 0.5%), BoE will release its policy on quantitative easing program which is expected to stay at 200b pounds. While technical view remains bearish on this pair, Sterling may get some support as long as BoE keep the QE program as expected.

USDJPY Outlook

The USDJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday after corrected lower on Monday and Tuesday. On daily chart below we can see that price now back inside the bullish channel indicating bullish scenario remains intact. To continue the bullish scenario, price should be able to break above the major trendline support. We are in critical phase now. I am still in buy mode for this pair and expecting a breakout above the trendline to continue bullish scenario towards 94.50 even 97.75 area. Immediate support at 92.00. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum and lead us into no trading zone in nearest term

USDCHF Outlook

The USDCHF made significant bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.0248, closed at 1.0275 and traded around 1.0258 at the time I wrote this comment. This fact should provide more downside pressure for this pair testing 1.0215 support area. Break below that area should be seen as bullish scenario failure and change my outlook to a bearish targeting 1.0000 area. Immediate resistance at 1.0280. Break above that area should keep the bullish scenario intact.

EURJPY Outlook

The EURJPY had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, moved back above the trendline after rejected to move below 38.2 Fibo retracement support area indicating bullish scenario remains intact. The bias is bullish targeting 133.77 area. Break above 133.77 should trigger further bullish momentum towards 135.40 area. Immediate support at 132.60 area. Break below that area should lead us back into no trading zone as direction would become unclear for me.

GBPJPY Outlook

The GBPJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 148.44 and closed at 147.85. On daily chart below we can see that the trendline support did good job preventing further bearish momentum, keep the bullish scenario intact. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 148.95 area. Immediate support at 147.30/50 area. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear for me.

AUDUSD Outlook

The AUDUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 0.9216, closed at 0.9196 and traded higher around 0.9250 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 0.9292 area. Break above that area should lead us to a new bullish phase targeting 0.9404 area. Immediate support at 0.9190. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone but I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.

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