FOREX TRADING

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD finally made a clear break above 1.3000 resistance yesterday, topped at 1.3106 but closed a little bit lower at 1.03075. This fact could trigger further upside pressure testing 1.3213/70 region before testing 1.3340. However, as you can see on my daily chart below, we have a trendline resistance which is located around 1.3120 that need to be broken to the upside before continue the bullish pressure. Immediate support at 1.3045/20 region. Break below that area could lead us into neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.2950/30 support area but overall we are still in strong upside phase and I still prefer buy on dips.

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EUR/USD closed higher on Thursday and is challenging the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are bullish signalling that additional short-term gains are possible. If it extends the rally off June’s low, the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

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EUR/USD closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday but remains above the 10-day moving average crossing. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are bullish signalling that additional short-term gains are possible. If it extends the rally off June’s low, the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

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The EURUSD made another indecisive movement yesterday, formed another Doji on daily chart. Price still unable to consistently move above 1.3000 and we know that it is a very strong resistance, which could produce bullish exhaustion and downside consolidation unless price able to break above 1.3045 area, targeting 1.3120 before testing 1.3270 – 1.3340 region. The bias remains neutral in nearest term but overall we are still in bullish phase. Immediate support at 1.2900 – 1.2880 area. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum testing 1.2735 key support area.

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Today’s beige book report, compiled in preparation for the August 10 FOMC meeting, provided a much more qualified characterization of the recovery among the 12 Fed districts compared to the report prepared in advance of the June 22-23 FOMC. Although the report opened by stating that economic activity continued to grow, the qualifier “on balance” quickly followed. This qualifier reflected that while eight Districts seemingly indicated that economic activity improved, albeit modestly, two Districts indicated steady activity with two Districts, Atlanta and Chicago, indicating the pace of activity had slowed recently. In June, it was indicated that economic activity had improved in all 12 Fed Districts. (more…)

EUR/USD closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates above the 10-day moving average crossing. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning bullish signalling that additional short-term gains are possible. If it extends the rally off June’s low, the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

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The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.3045 but again, failed to consistently move above 1.3000 so far. The bias is neutral in nearest term but I believe we are still in strong upside phase unless price break below 1.2735 region. Immediate support at 1.2950 followed by 1.2880. On the upside, 1.3120 remains the nearest bullish target.

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The EURUSD touched 1.3000 area yesterday but still unable to move consistently above that psychological/key level so far. On h4 chart below we can see that we may have a triple top formation around 1.3000. Consistent move above 1.3000 could trigger further bullish pressure testing 1.3120 even higher. On the other hand, break below 1.2735 confirms the triple top scenario and could be a serious threat to the current bullish outlook. Immediate support at 1.2950 (23.6% Fibo retracement of 1.2793 – 1.3005). Break below that area could trigger further bearish pullback testing 1.2875 (61.5% Fibo retracement of 1.2793 – 1.3005).

GBPUSD Outlook

The GBPUSD slipped above 1.5470 resistance area indicating potential further upside pressure at least targeting 1.5573 (February 23 high) before testing 1.5685 region (February 18 high). Another move below 1.5470 could lead us into neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.5400 but overall we are still in strong bullish phase and I prefer buy the dips strategy at this phase.

USDJPY Outlook

The USDJPY failed to continue its bullish correction yesterday and now back below 87.00. My short term technical study is a a little bit mess for this pair but overall the major scenario remains to the downside with nearest bearish target around 86.25 – 85.86 before re-testing 84.80 area. Immediate resistance at 87.50 followed by 88.23.

USDCHF Outlook

As you can see on my h4 below, the USDCHF is moving inside a rectangle area indicating consolidation after significant bearish momentum. We need a break from the range area to see clearer direction. Break above 1.0560 could trigger further bullish pullback testing 1.0650/70 while a break below 1.0399 could continue the major bearish scenario targeting 1.0320 and 1.0220 region.

EURJPY Outlook

The EURJPY was indecisive yesterday. Price so far unable to stay consistently above 113.50 area indicating limited upside pressure. Overall price still trapped in range area of 113.50 – 108.07. We need a consistent move above 113.50 to continue the bullish correction testing 115.50. Immediate support at 112.25 followed by 111.50/60 region

GBPJPY Outlook

The GBPJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 135.60 but closed lower at 134.64. Overall we are still in range area of 136.30 – 130.50 and I will keep stay away from this pair for now. On h1 chart below we have a descending triangle formation indicating potential downside pressure especially if price break below the triangle testing 133.70/20 support area. On the upside, we need a clear break above 136.30 resistance area to confirm the bullish scenario testing 139.38 region.

AUDUSD Outlook

The AUDUSD had a moderate bullish momentum yesterday. The main scenario remains bullish but the rising wedge bearish scenario warning is still there and we need price to violate the formation with strong momentum to continue the bullish scenario targeting 0.9140 before testing 0.9380 in longer term. On the downside, only a break below 0.8858 and the rising wedge formation could be considered as potential bullish failure.