FOREX TRADING

Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The EURUSD had a significant bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.4821 and closed at 1.4844. The valid double top bearish reversal scenario on daily chart I said yesterday surely now in a good progress as bullish momentum seems exhausted but once again, we need consistent movement below 1.4850 and a clear break below the major trendline support in order to confirm the scenario towards 1.4625 even 1.4450 area.

On h4 chart below we can see that price slipped below the trendline support but can not stay consistently below the trendline and 1.4850 key support area so far. CCI in oversold area and heading up on h4 chart suggesting potential upside pullback. Although the nearest bias is bearish, I will not surprise if we will have some upside momentum today, but as long as the pair stay below 1.4930/50, the double top bearish reversal scenario should remains intact. Immediate resistance at 1.4890 followed by 1.4930/50 area. Break above 1.4950 should diminish the double top scenario. On the upside, only movement above 1.5060/50 area can be considered as bullish continuation scenario towards 1.5150 and 1.5300

GBPUSD Outlook

The lower line of my bullish channel and 1.6510 area was proved to be a good support at this phase. As you can see in my daily chart below, price bounced higher after touched the lower line and closed higher at 1.6580. However, surely it’s s too early to say that downside pressure is over. Although bullish channel remains valid and bullish scenario remains intact, note that we will have higher level of support area to be broken in order to confirm bearish reversal scenario. In other word, bearish reversal confirmation is now nearer than yesterday. The fact that the bullish rebound after touched the lower line was very limited suggest further downside pressure is still there. A violation to the bullish channel should confirm the bearish scenario. The bias is neutral in nearest term as we have nothing confirmed yet. Immediate support remains at 1.6510 area. Break below that area should be seen as bearish reversal scenario confirmation. Initial resistance at 1.6625 (yesterday’s high). Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum and keep the bullish scenario intact.

USDJPY Outlook

The USDJPY had a significant bullish momentum yesterday. As you can see in my h4 chart below, price break above my minor trendline resistance (yellow, now become support), slipped above major resistance (red) but also failed to stay above that trendline so far. I think this will be a battle between those trendlines. Very interesting. So far, I still on the bearish side since my focus is more at the major trendline resistance which remains hold and false breakout strategy looks good for me right now especially if we have another break below the trendline support (former resistance, yellow) with 88.80 area remains potential downside target. Immediate resistance at 90.60. Break above that area should be seen as potential bearish failure and could be the beginning of bullish view.

USDCHF Outlook

Finally the USDCHF made a breakout from the range area, topped at 1.0192 and closed at 1.0173. On h4 chart below we can see that price now is testing the trendline resistance (red, former support). The bias is bullish in nearest term but we surely need consistent move above the trendline to confirm the bullish reversal scenario towards 1.0337 area. Note that price is not able to stay above the trendline yet so far which can be considered as potential false breakout which usually lead to significant bearish momentum. Immediate support at 1.0120. Break below that area should trigger further bearish pressure.

EURJPY Outlook

Do you remember that on Tuesday, I said that I believe bullish momentum on Monday is the real direction after last week noises from important news? Well, now I think I was wrong as the bullish pressure failed to keep it’s momentum. On daily chart below, we can see that the price has break below my triangle indicating potential bearish scenario testing 133.35 (Monday’s low). However, I think I will stay out for now as overall I can not see clear direction. Immediate resistance at 134.50. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum but that is just confirm my my view that we have no clear direction and this week movement could be indecisive.

GBPJPY Outlook

The GBPJPY made a false breakdown from the trendline support yesterday, as you can see in my daily chart below. This fact suggest that we are still consolidating and in no trading zone area as we have no clear direction and might find this pair indecisive this week. I will keep stay away from this pair and see if we have a significant progress next week. Immediate support at 149.20/30. Break below that area should trigger further bearish pressure. Initial resistance at 150.26. Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum testing the trendline resistance area.

AUDUSD Outlook

My breakout strategy was a failure yesterday. As you can see in my h4 chart below, that was a case of a false breakout before some significant bearish momentum, bottomed at 0.9209 and closed at 0.9237. Technically this fact should trigger further bearish pressure at least testing 0.9180 area, but I think I will stay away now and wait for further development. Expected range at 0.9327 – 0.9180.

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