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| Tags: Daily Technical Analysis EURUSD Outlook, resistance, support | Categories: Day Trading, Forex, Support and Resistance, Technical Analysis |
The EURUSD didn’t make significant movement yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but we are still in bullish correction phase as price is moving strongly inside the bullish channel as you can see on my h1 chart below. A break above the trend line resistance could trigger further upside momentum testing 1.2930. On the downside only a violation to the bullish channel and movement below 1.2770 support area could trigger bearish continuation at least testing 1.2700. Pay attention to US Non Farm Payroll data today.
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| Tags: Foreign Exchange Market Commentary, resistance, support | Categories: Day Trading, Forex, Support and Resistance, Technical Analysis |
EUR/USD closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off this month’s high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signalling that a short-term low is in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing would temper the bearish outlook. If it renews last month’s decline, the reaction low crossing is the next downside target.
Continue reading Foreign Exchange Market Commentary – Daily 09.03.2010 »
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| Tags: forex fundamental outlook | Categories: Forex, Forex Forecast, Fundamental Analysis |
Today’s US session was one for those who enjoy watching paint dry. But tomorrow is NFP day and may be yet another day for a USD inflection point.
Today’s session was hardly one for the history books, though we did see fairly strong moves in NOK (in support of the interest rate spreads favoring the currency as we have noted in recent days) and in SEK off the back of the Riksbank interest rate hike and guidance. EURUSD and the other major USD pairs failed to follow up on yesterday’s exuberant move higher in respect of the upcoming US employment report and ISM non-manufacturing report tomorrow.
Nonfarm payroll expectations and reactions
Some have lowered expectations for US nonfarm payrolls due to the weak ADP release (soon we’ll be dropping the "private payrolls" figure, which remains the focus, once the rest of these pesky census workers are fired). The Saxo call (see a great report on the release here: is for a virtually unchanged figure versus a slightly more positive consensus. The market is already very short the USD, but risk is made a sharp comeback yesterday, which pushed the dollar lower. It feels like we’re in need of direction here after so many days of aimless trading in EURUSD and whippy trading in the more risk-correlated AUDUSD, but will we get any kind of resolution in tomorrow’s trading? It’s tough to build any conviction in this environment. For now, risk appetite measures are generally very complacent.
It is perhaps worth noting the reactions to the last three US employment reports.
Continue reading Forex Fundamental Outlook – NFP to Offer Another USD Inflection Point? »
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| Tags: Daily Technical Analysis EURUSD Outlook, resistance, support | Categories: Day Trading, Forex, Support and Resistance, Technical Analysis |
The EURUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.2854 and closed at 1.2807 after price break above the triangle. Positive data from China and Australia trigger risk appetite and hurt the Dollar. The “head and shoulders” bearish scenario remains intact but clearly under heavy pressure as price is now move above the neckline (1.2700). A new trend line resistance (yellow) is drawn as a result of yesterday’s price action. Break above that trend line and 1.2854 could trigger further upside pressure testing the right shoulder of the H&S formation around 1.2930 which could be a serious threat to the bearish outlook and potential bullish reversal scenario. On the downside, I think we need another move below 1.2700 to see further bearish pressure.
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| Tags: Foreign Exchange Market Commentary, resistance, support | Categories: Day Trading, Forex, Support and Resistance, Technical Analysis |
EUR/USD closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off this month’s high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signalling that a short-term low is in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing would temper the bearish outlook. If September renews last month’s decline, the reaction low crossing is the next downside target.
Continue reading Foreign Exchange Market Commentary – Daily 09.02.2010 »
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| Tags: market news | Categories: Forex, Fundamental Analysis |
Risk sentiment surged on positive economic data as well as beginning of month asset allocation. The positive news stream continued from last night’s release of China’s August manufacturing PMI which surprised to the upside printing 51.7 vs. expected 51.5. The risk rally continued as we received uplifting news from down under on much stronger than anticipated 2Q Australian GDP numbers (+1.2% vs. +0.9% expected). The economic data out of the U.S. showed a disappointing ADP employment change for August dropping to -10K from the prior 37K (cons. 15K). This was the first negative ADP reading since January of this year. The market reaction to the labor data was relatively muted and it was the August ISM manufacturing data which was released at 56.3 well above the anticipated 52.7 and stronger than the prior 55.5. Construction spending came in weaker than forecasted (-1.0% vs. expected -0.5%) but was shrugged off as the market focused on the strong ISM numbers.
Continue reading New York Session Recap »
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| Tags: daily wave analysis | Categories: Day Trading, Forex, Technical Analysis |
Currency pair USD/CHF
Conditional critical level is once again broken, besides, a wave [b] prospective Expanded Flat B of (2) at level of the limiting sizes. It persistently specifies all in necessity of revision of the scenario. The variants considering behaviour of the price will be considered in the near future and published in section of the monthly analysis. Within the limits of the considered scenario, formation of an impulse with of (y) of [b] presumably comes to an end. If the assumption is true, after its termination it is possible to expect growth of pair as an impulse or a Diagonal Triangle [c] of B.
Continue reading The Daily Wave Analysis – 09.01.2010 »
Foreign Exchange Market Commentary – Daily 09.03.2010
Posted by admin | Tags: Foreign Exchange Market Commentary, resistance, support | Categories: Day Trading, Forex, Support and Resistance, Technical Analysis | No CommentsEUR/USD closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off this month’s high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signalling that a short-term low is in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing would temper the bearish outlook. If it renews last month’s decline, the reaction low crossing is the next downside target.
Continue reading Foreign Exchange Market Commentary – Daily 09.03.2010 »